Towards transboundary networks of climate-smart marine reserves in the Southern California Bight

Arafeh-Dalmau, N.; Munguia-Vega, A.; Micheli, F.; Vilalta-Navas, A.; Villasenor-Derbez, J. C.; Precoma-de la Mora, M.; Schoeman, D. S.; Medellin-Ortiz, A.; Cavanaugh, K. C.; Sosa-Nishizaki, O.; Burnham, T. L. U.; Knight, C. J.; Woodson, C. B.; Abas, M.; Abadia-Cardoso, A.; Aburto-Oropeza, O.; Esgro, M. W.; Espinosa-Andrade, N.; Beas-Luna, R.; Cardenas, N.; Carr, M. H.; Dale, K. E.; Cisneros-Soberanis, F.; Flores-Morales, A. L.; Fulton, S.; Garcia-Rodriguez, E.; Giron-Nava, A.; Gleason, M. G.; Green, A. L.; Hernandez-Velasco, A.; Ibarra-Macias, B.; Johnson, A. F.; Lorda, J.; Malpica-Cruz, L.; M

doi:10.1101/2022.01.04.475006

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2022.01.04.475006

Towards transboundary networks of climate-smart marine reserves in the Southern California Bight

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Abstract

Climate-smart conservation addresses the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change impacts but may require transboundary considerations. Here, we adapt and refine 16 biophysical guidelines for climate-smart marine reserves for the transboundary California Bight ecoregion. We link several climate-adaptation strategies (e.g., maintaining connectivity, representing climate refugia, and forecasting effectiveness of protection) by focusing on kelp forests and associated species. We quantify transboundary larval connectivity along [~]800 km of coast and find that the number of connections and the average density of larvae dispersing through the network under future climate scenarios could decrease by [~]50%, highlighting the need to protect critical steppingstone nodes. We also find that although focal species will generally recover with 30% protection, marine heatwaves could hinder subsequent recovery in the following 50 years, suggesting that protecting climate refugia and expanding the coverage of marine reserves is a priority. Together, these findings provide a first comprehensive framework for integrating climate resilience for networks of marine reserves and highlight the need for a coordinated approach in the California Bight ecoregion.

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Arafeh-Dalmau, N., Munguia-Vega, A., Micheli, F., Vilalta-Navas, A., Villasenor-Derbez, J. C., Precoma-de la Mora, M., Schoeman, D. S., Medellin-Ortiz, A., Cavanaugh, K. C., Sosa-Nishizaki, O., Burnham, T. L. U., Knight, C. J., Woodson, C. B., Abas, M., Abadia-Cardoso, A., Aburto-Oropeza, O., Esgro, M. W., Espinosa-Andrade, N., Beas-Luna, R., Cardenas, N., Carr, M. H., Dale, K. E., Cisneros-Soberanis, F., Flores-Morales, A. L., Fulton, S., Garcia-Rodriguez, E., Giron-Nava, A., Gleason, M. G., Green, A. L., Hernandez-Velasco, A., Ibarra-Macias, B., Johnson, A. F., Lorda, J., Malpica-Cruz, L., M. 2022-01-05. Towards transboundary networks of climate-smart marine reserves in the Southern California Bight. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.04.475006

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