Climate-risk to European fisheries and coastal communities

Abstract

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterising the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritising the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector for the first time to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ a novel approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the UK have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall while, in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change and climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region and fleets specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact. Significance StatementWe present a novel climate risk analysis for i) 105 ocean-dependent communities and ii) 380 fishing fleets in Europe. Our unique approach provides a perspective over the climate risks in this diverse and populous continent that is unprecedented in both its breadth and detail. We show that countries in southeast Europe as well as the UK have the highest climate risk overall, both in terms of fishing fleets and coastal communities. Substantial variation in climate risk is seen even within countries, emphasizing that climate adaptation interventions need to be tailored to the specific characteristics of the fleet or community. A focus on sustainable fisheries management and diversification of fish portfolios can reduce climate risks across the board.