Biology subjects

Payne, M. R.

Publications and source records attributed to Payne, M. R..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts

Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planets changing climate by shifting their distribution (i.e. where they are found). Such shifts can drive conflicts at the international scale and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources for income and nutrition. Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the state of the ocean, and thereby the drivers of these shifts, can be skilfully forecast up to a decade ahead. However, the potential for these forecasts to benefit ocean-dependent communities has yet to be realised. Here we show for the first time that marine climate predictions can be used to generate decadal-scale forecasts of shifts in the habitat and distribution of marine fish species, as exemplified by Atlantic mackerel, bluefin tuna and blue whiting. We show statistically significant forecast skill of individual years that outperform both persistence and climatological baseline forecasts for lead times of 3-10 years: multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients in excess of 0.90 in some cases. We also show that the habitat shifts underling recent conflicts over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could have been foreseen on similar timescales. Our results show that climate predictions can be translated into information directly relevant to stakeholders and we anticipate that this tool will be critical in foreseeing, adapting to and coping with the challenges of a changing and variable future climate, particularly in the most ocean-dependent nations and communities.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Skill and value in recruitment forecasting

Forecasting variation in the recruitment to fish stocks is one of the most challenging and long-running problems in fisheries science and essentially remains unsolved today. Traditionally recruitment forecasts are developed and evaluated based on explanatory and goodness-of-fit approaches that do not reflect their ability to predict beyond the data on which they were developed. Here we propose a new generic framework that allows the skill and value of recruitment forecasts to be assessed in a manner that is relevant to their potential use in an operational setting. We assess forecast skill based on predictive power using a retrospective forecasting approach inspired by meterology, and emphasise the importance of assessing these forecasts relative to a baseline. We quantify the value of these forecasts using an economic cost-loss decision model that is directly relevant to many forecast users. We demonstrate this framework using four stocks of lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) in the North Sea, showing for the first time in an operationally realistic setting that skilful and valuable forecasts are feasible in two of these areas. This result shows the ability to produce valuable short-term recruitment forecasts, and highlights the need to revisit our approach to and understanding of recruitment forecasting.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Climate-risk to European fisheries and coastal communities

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterising the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritising the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector for the first time to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ a novel approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the UK have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall while, in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change and climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region and fleets specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact. Significance StatementWe present a novel climate risk analysis for i) 105 ocean-dependent communities and ii) 380 fishing fleets in Europe. Our unique approach provides a perspective over the climate risks in this diverse and populous continent that is unprecedented in both its breadth and detail. We show that countries in southeast Europe as well as the UK have the highest climate risk overall, both in terms of fishing fleets and coastal communities. Substantial variation in climate risk is seen even within countries, emphasizing that climate adaptation interventions need to be tailored to the specific characteristics of the fleet or community. A focus on sustainable fisheries management and diversification of fish portfolios can reduce climate risks across the board.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Improved management facilitates return of an iconic fish species

Species declines and losses of biota are often associated with shifting baselines in perceived historical abundances, and/or neglect or abandonment of recovery actions aimed at ecological restoration. Such declines are frequently accompanied by contractions in the geographical distribution of the species, with associated negative ecological impacts and diminishing socio-economic benefits. Here we show using citizen science and other data that after 50-60 years of near total absence, the iconic top predator and highly migratory species bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, returned by the hundreds if not thousands in waters near Denmark, Norway and Sweden during August-October 2015-2017. The re-utilisation of this former habitat is part of a geographically more widespread expansion of the summer foraging area to the northern part of the northeast Atlantic Ocean, encompassing waters from east Greenland to west Sweden. The remarkable return to the Skagerrak, Kattegat and North Sea has been facilitated by improved fishery management for bluefin tuna and its prey. Bluefin tuna biomass in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean has been increasing since a recovery plan was implemented in the late 2000s, and biomasses of two key prey species (herring, Clupea harengus; mackerel, Scomber scombrus) recovered during the late 1980s-1990s. The reappearance of bluefin tuna in the Skagerrak-Kattegat and other waters of northern Europe, despite a recent history of mismanagement and illegal fishing in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean which led to a critical population decline, offers hope that other marine ecological recoveries are possible under improved management of fisheries and ecosystems. One Sentence SummaryImproved management promotes the return of an ocean icon to northern Europe. Significance StatementCommercial fisheries are often perceived being in a state of decline and collapse, putting food and economic security at risk. Such declines are frequently accompanied by contractions in stock distribution, negative ecological impacts and diminishing socio-economic benefits. Here we present an example based on one of the worlds most valuable and iconic fish species, bluefin tuna, which demonstrates that effective management of both bluefin tuna and its prey has been a key factor leading to a remarkable reoccupation of formerly lost habitat. This reappearance, following decades of absence, occurred despite the bluefin tuna stock having had a recent, long history of unsustainable and illegal exploitation. Marine ecological recovery actions can be successful, even in situations which may initially appear intractable.

ecology↗