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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.09.24.754027

Probabilistic species distributions from nine large-scale gridded atlases over five decades

Grattarola, F.·Ortega-Solis, G.·Soria, C. D.·Tietje, M.·Wölke, F. J. R.·Fox, R.·Hordley, L.·Herrando, S.·Keil, P.
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Abstract

Information on the long-term dynamics of species distributions is essential for assessing global biodiversity change and its causes, and for informed conservation decisions. A valuable source of such historical information are atlases. They provide spatial standardisation, extensive geographic coverage, temporal replication, documented sampling protocols, and span multiple species. Here we present model-based occupancy probabilities for 1,055 bird and 58 butterfly species, derived from nine gridded atlas datasets spanning several editions over the past 50 years. These are: Japan, New Zealand, New York state (US), the states of Alberta, Quebec, and The Maritimes (Canada), Czech Republic, United Kingdom, and Europe. Despite standardisation and coordination during data collection, the raw atlas data still contain some variation in sampling effort. We accounted for this using a two-step process: (1) we estimated a proxy for sampling effort in each grid cell within each atlas period using the Frescalo Algorithm, and (2) we ran a Bayesian spatial occupancy model for each species and atlas period, using the estimated sampling effort as the single predictor of detection in the observation process of the model. As the main product, we provide occupancy probabilities for species across grid cells and atlas periods. We also report uncertainty around each probability estimate and flag ~21% (rare) species per atlas for which the model did not fit well. The probability distributions are fit for purpose and served in a user-friendly database with standardised geographic projection, metadata, and taxonomy.

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Grattarola, F., Ortega-Solis, G., Soria, C. D., Tietje, M., Wölke, F. J. R., Fox, R., Hordley, L., Herrando, S., Keil, P.. 2026-09-24. Probabilistic species distributions from nine large-scale gridded atlases over five decades. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.24.754027

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