Plant traits are poor predictors of long-term ecosystem functioning

van der Plas, F.; Schroeder-Georgi, T.; Weigelt, A.; Barry, K. E.; Meyer, S.; Alzate, A.; Barnard, R.; Buchmann, N.; de Kroon, H.; Ebeling, A.; Eisenhauer, N.; Engels, C.; Fischer, M.; Gleixner, G.; Hildebrandt, A.; Koller-France, E.; Leimer, S.; Milcu, A.; Mommer, L.; Niklaus, P.; Oelmann, Y.; Roscher, C.; Scherber, C.; Scherer-Lorenzen, M.; Scheu, S.; Schmid, B.; Schulze, E.-D.; Temperton, V.; Tscharntke, T.; Voigt, W.; Weisser, W.; Wilcke, W.; Wirth, C.

doi:10.1101/859314

Home/Archive/bioRxiv

bioRxiv · 10.1101/859314

Plant traits are poor predictors of long-term ecosystem functioning

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Earth is home to over 350,000 vascular plant species1 that differ in their traits in innumerable ways. Yet, a handful of functional traits can help explaining major differences among species in photosynthetic rate, growth rate, reproductive output and other aspects of plant performance2-6. A key challenge, coined "the Holy Grail" in ecology, is to upscale this understanding in order to predict how natural or anthropogenically driven changes in the identity and diversity of co-occurring plant species drive the functioning of ecosystems7, 8. Here, we analyze the extent to which 42 different ecosystem functions can be predicted by 41 plant traits in 78 experimentally manipulated grassland plots over 10 years. Despite the unprecedented number of traits analyzed, the average percentage of variation in ecosystem functioning that they jointly explained was only moderate (32.6%) within individual years, and even much lower (12.7%) across years. Most other studies linking ecosystem functioning to plant traits analyzed no more than six traits, and when including either only six random or the six most frequently studied traits in our analysis, the average percentage of explained variation in across-year ecosystem functioning dropped to 4.8%. Furthermore, different ecosystem functions were driven by different traits, with on average only 12.2% overlap in significant predictors. Thus, we did not find evidence for the existence of a small set of key traits able to explain variation in multiple ecosystem functions across years. Our results therefore suggest that there are strong limits in the extent to which we can predict the long-term functional consequences of the ongoing, rapid changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities that humanity is currently facing.

Explore related subjects

ecology Preprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

van der Plas, F., Schroeder-Georgi, T., Weigelt, A., Barry, K. E., Meyer, S., Alzate, A., Barnard, R., Buchmann, N., de Kroon, H., Ebeling, A., Eisenhauer, N., Engels, C., Fischer, M., Gleixner, G., Hildebrandt, A., Koller-France, E., Leimer, S., Milcu, A., Mommer, L., Niklaus, P., Oelmann, Y., Roscher, C., Scherber, C., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Scheu, S., Schmid, B., Schulze, E.-D., Temperton, V., Tscharntke, T., Voigt, W., Weisser, W., Wilcke, W., Wirth, C.. 2019-11-29. Plant traits are poor predictors of long-term ecosystem functioning. https://doi.org/10.1101/859314

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Invasion analysis for structured populations: analytical principles and numerical workflows

All real populations show some form of structure--differences among individuals, such as life stage or physiological condition, that shape a species' ability to persist. Yet it remains challenging to incorporate population structure into models of species interactions. We provide a general framework for studying competition in structured populations by quantifying species' invasion growth rates. The crux of our approach is separation of timescales: the initial dynamics of a structured population depend on how exactly it is introduced, but these transient differences do not affect long-term invasion success. Depending on the research question, the relevant long-term growth rate when rare may equivalently be derived using analytical separation of timescales, matrix population theory, or numerical simulations. Using case studies spanning developmental stage, environmental state, and infection status, we illustrate how our methodology derives simple, ecologically meaningful invasion conditions for a variety of systems. Finally, we extend the approach to fluctuating resident dynamics, showing how to use simulations or a general mathematical framework known as Floquet theory to correctly quantify invasion growth. By unifying the quantitative methods of population biology and community ecology, our framework will allow ecologists to study species persistence and coexistence across a greater variety of demographically complex systems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Interspecific social contacts spread gut microbiota in wild rodent communities

Background: The mammalian gut microbiota influences a wide array of host phenotypes and varies substantially among individuals. Among conspecifics, microbiota composition is strongly shaped by microbial transmission through social interactions, yet the extent to which such transmission also occurs across species boundaries remains poorly understood. Here, we combine high-resolution tracking data collected over more than 10 months with gut microbiota profiling to examine social associations, space use, and microbiota similarity among individuals of three sympatric rodent species - wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), yellow-necked mice (A. flavicollis) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus), in two woodlands. By integrating multi-species social networks and spatial overlap with individual microbiota data, we test how both conspecific and interspecific interactions shape gut microbiota composition. Results: At both study sites, social associations strongly predicted microbiota similarity among conspecific individuals, whereas spatial proximity consistently predicted microbiota similarity among interspecific pairs. In addition, social associations between mice of different species predicted microbiota similarity, although this effect was weaker than that observed within species and was asymmetric, with evidence for stronger microbial transmission from wood mice to yellow-necked mice than vice versa. By focusing on species-indicative bacterial taxa, we further show that wood mice with more social connections to yellow-necked mice harboured a greater richness of gut bacteria typical of yellow-necked mice. Conclusions: Together, these results demonstrate that individual-level social behaviour can influence gut microbial transmission across species boundaries, particularly among closely related species with overlapping ecological niches. Interspecific social interactions may therefore represent an underappreciated pathway for the acquisition of novel gut symbionts in multi-species communities.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Energetic and functional development of soil food webs along secondary succession

1. As ecosystems develop, aboveground biomass and belowground organic matter accumulate, while energy turnover declines. This trend is largely supported by vegetation studies, but remains unexplored for soil food webs that channel the majority of energy in terrestrial ecosystems. 2. Here, we tested whether successional theory applies to soil food webs across size-based compartments, ranging from microfauna (nematodes) to macrofauna (soil arthropods and earthworms), along a secondary succession in southwestern China, using an energy-flux approach. To assess whether forest restoration by planting follows natural succession, we also compared spruce and larch plantations with secondary birch forest of the same successional stage. 3. Supporting expectations of reduced energy turnover, the results showed an increasing animal biomass-to-energy flux ratio and a functional shift from herbivory-dominated (green) to detritivory-dominated (brown) energy channelling along succession. Soil food web compartments showed contrasting trends: macro-food webs shifted towards bacterial energy channels with decreasing predation, while micro-food webs maintained similar bacterial/fungal energy flux ratios and tended towards increasing predation. The larch plantation supported lower animal biomass than the secondary birch forest, whereas the spruce plantation did not differ. We further found that energy flux correlated positively with microbial biomass and soil animal diversity, but negatively with litter biomass during succession. 4. Overall, we expand successional theory by revealing the transformations in energy use and pathways within soil food webs along secondary succession, thereby advancing understanding of ecosystem functioning and guiding ecosystem restoration. Our results further suggest that tree plantations do not necessarily replicate the belowground development of natural succession, which should be considered in ecosystem restoration.

ecology↗