A genetic hazard score to personalize prostate cancer screening, applied to population data

Abstract

BackgroundGenetic risk stratification may inform decisions of whether--and when--a man should undergo prostate cancer (PCa) screening. We previously validated a polygenic hazard score (PHS), a weighted sum of 54 single-nucleotide polymorphism genotypes, for accurate prediction of age of onset of aggressive PCa and improved screening performance. We now assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening.\n\nMethodsUnited Kingdom population data were fit to a continuous model of age-specific PCa incidence. Using hazard ratios estimated from ProtecT trial data, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for percentiles of genetic risk. Incidence of higher-grade PCa (Gleason[≥]7) was estimated from age-specific data from the linked CAP trial. PHS and incidence data were combined to give a risk-equivalent age, when a man with a given PHS percentile will have risk of higher-grade PCa equivalent to that of a typical man at age 50 (50-years standard). Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing was calculated using PHS-adjusted (PCa-risk-equivalent age) groups identified from ProtecT.\n\nResultsExpected age of onset of higher-grade PCa is modulated by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles. A man with PHS in the 99th percentile reaches 50-years-standard risk at age 41; conversely, a man in the 1st percentile reaches this risk at age 60. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age.\n\nConclusionsPHS informs PCa screening strategies with individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for higher-grade PCa. Screening initiation could be adjusted according to a mans genetic hazard score, improving PPV of PSA screening.