Search bioRxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/bioRxiv

bioRxiv · 10.1101/448597

Polygenic prediction of breast cancer: comparison of genetic predictors and implications for screening

Läll, K.·Lepamets, M.·Palover, M.·Esko, T.·Metspalu, A.·Tonisson, N.·Padrik, P.·Mägi, R.·Fischer, K.
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

BackgroundPublished genetic risk scores for breast cancer (BC) so far have been based on a relatively small number of markers and are not necessarily using the full potential of large-scale Genome-Wide Association Studies. This study aims to identify an efficient polygenic predictor for BC based on best available evidence and to assess its potential for personalized risk prediction and screening strategies.\n\nMethodsFour different genetic risk scores (two already published and two newly developed) and their combinations (metaGRS) are compared in the subsets of two population-based biobank cohorts: the UK Biobank (UKBB, 3157 BC cases, 43,827 controls) and Estonian Biobank (EstBB, 317 prevalent and 308 incident BC cases in 32,557 women). In addition, correlations between different genetic risk scores and their associations with BC risk factors are studied in both cohorts.\n\nResultsThe metaGRS that combines two genetic risk scores (metaGRS2 - based on 75 and 898 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, respectively) has the strongest association with prevalent BC status in both cohorts. One standard deviation difference in the metaGRS2 corresponds to an Odds Ratio = 1.6 (95% CI 1.54 to 1.66, p = 9.7*10-135) in the UK Biobank and accounting for family history marginally attenuates the effect (Odds Ratio = 1.58, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.64, p = 9.1*10-129). In the EstBB cohort, the hazard ratio of incident BC for the women in the top 5% of the metaGRS2 compared to women in the lowest 50% is 4.2 (95% CI 2.8 to 6.2, p = 8.1*10-13). The different GRSs are only moderately correlated with each other and are associated with different known predictors of BC. The classification of genetic risk for the same individual may vary considerably depending on the chosen GRS.\n\nConclusionsWe have shown that metaGRS2 that combines on the effects of more than 900 SNPs provides best predictive ability for breast cancer in two different population-based cohorts. The strength of the effect of metaGRS2 indicates that the GRS could potentially be used to develop more efficient strategies for breast cancer screening for genotyped women.

Explore related subjects

geneticsPreprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Läll, K., Lepamets, M., Palover, M., Esko, T., Metspalu, A., Tonisson, N., Padrik, P., Mägi, R., Fischer, K.. 2018-10-22. Polygenic prediction of breast cancer: comparison of genetic predictors and implications for screening. https://doi.org/10.1101/448597

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Cellular context shapes the transcriptomic impact of somatic variants

Somatic SNVs are commonly prioritized by recurrence or sequence annotation, leaving the molecular consequences of private variants unresolved. We developed PrismSNV and Ligo-Seq, a single-cell full-length transcriptome sequencing platform, to quantify transcriptomic displacement associated with within-cell SNV-state toggling. Across 26 samples from three cancer types, more than 60% of candidate SNVs showed significant cell-type-specific displacement with over 30% variation in magnitude. Sequence-based deleteriousness was poorly aligned with cellular displacement, and fewer than 3% of top-displacement SNVs across six tumor types were catalogued in ClinVar. Displacement was strongest in transcriptionally plastic, less differentiated states. Analysis of 655,349 CD4+ T-cell transcriptomes further showed that SNV-gene associations changed in magnitude and sometimes direction during activation. Lack of recurrence or clinical annotation does not imply transcriptomic inertness; variant impact is shaped by cellular context rather than sequence alone, establishing the variant-cell pair as a critical unit for interpreting somatic variation.

genetics↗
bioRxiv2026

Genetic and Epigenetic Landscape of Self-Identified Hispanics/Latino in All Of Us

Human genetic studies still underrepresent many populations, limiting discovery and interpretation of medically relevant variation. Extensive admixture in self-identified Hispanic/Latino populations increases the need for representative reference data and ancestry-aware interpretation of medically relevant variation. We used long-read sequencing to analyze genetic variation, ancestry, and DNA methylation in 1,490 self-identified Hispanic/Latino participants from the All of Us Research Program. We identified 10 million novel variants and more than 100 candidate phenotype associations, with fine-mapping prioritizing structural variants over nearby single-nucleotide variants in more than half. We linked 3,329 tandem repeats to DNA methylation, resolved widespread allele-specific methylation, and identified ancestry-linked regulation across paralogous genes. These results reveal previously inaccessible genetic and regulatory variation and show the value of long-read sequencing for diverse populations.

genetics↗
bioRxiv2026

The genetic architecture of human DNA methylome variation

Population DNA methylome analyses remain largely confined to reference-defined genomic space despite extensive human genetic diversity. A central challenge is therefore to define comparable methylation phenotypes across diverse genomes and map the genetic architecture of methylome variation. Here, using 460 haplotypes from the Human Pangenome Reference Consortium Release 2, we develop two complementary pangenome-based frameworks: one compares methylation within homologous regions while retaining haplotype-specific structural configuration and CpG content; the other represents CpG island (CGI) variation at homologous loci as sequence-resolved alleles. We identified 47,039 CGI alleles, including 8,040 absent from CHM13; 62% were attributable to structural variants and 31% to small variants. Through local genealogies, we reconstructed CGI gain, loss and turnover, revealing how present-day methylation differences align with CGI evolutionary trajectories. We found that genome-wide, methylation variability was buffered against genetic diversity across more than 90% of the genome, with exceptions at extreme nucleotide diversity and locally around structural variants. Our methylation framework enabled population-scale allele-aware methylation quantitative trait locus (mQTL) mapping into non-reference and structurally complex sequence, where mQTL-associated intervals were enriched. mQTLs linked methylation to transcriptomic phenotypes, population differentiation and complex traits, supporting 8% of population differentially methylated regions and colocalizing with more than half of genome-wide association study loci. Together, our study redefines human methylome analysis and our findings reveal a genome-wide architecture of genetic-epigenetic coupling, reshaping how methylation variation is interpreted across human development and disease.

genetics↗