Search bioRxivSearch

bioRxiv · 10.1101/320317

A community-level investigation of the yellow fever virus outbreak in South Omo Zone, South-West Ethiopia, 2012-2014

Abstract

BackgroundA yellow fever (YF) outbreak occurred in South Omo Zone, Ethiopia in 2012-2014. This study aimed to analyse historical epidemiological data, to assess the risk for future YF outbreaks through entomological surveillance, including mosquito species identification and molecular screening for arboviruses, and finally to determine the knowledge, attitudes and current preventative practices within the affected communities.\n\nMethodology/Principal FindingsFrom October 2012 to March 2014, 165 cases and 62 deaths were reported, principally in rural areas of South Ari region (83.6%), south-west Ethiopia. The majority of patients were 15-44 years old (74.5%) and most case deaths were males (76%). Between June and August 2017, 688 containers were sampled from across 177 households to identify key breeding sites for Aedes mosquitoes. Ensete ventricosum (\"false banana\") was identified as the primary natural breeding site, and clay pots outside the home as the most productive artificial breeding site. Entomological risk indices from the majority of sites were classified as \"high risk\" for future outbreaks under current World Health Organization criteria. Adult trapping resulted in the identification of members of the Aedes simpsoni complex in and around households. Screening of adult females revealed no detection of yellow fever virus (YFV) or other arboviruses. 88% of 177 participants had heard of YF, however many participants easily confused transmission and symptoms of YF with malaria, which is also endemic in the area.\n\nConclusions/SignificanceStudy results emphasise the need for further entomological studies to improve our understanding of local vector species and transmission dynamics. Disease surveillance systems and in-country laboratory capacity also need to be strengthened to facilitate more rapid responses to future YF outbreaks.\n\nAuthor SummaryDespite the availability of a highly effective vaccine, yellow fever virus (YFV) remains an important public health problem across Africa and South America due to its high case-fatality rate. This study aimed to assess and reduce the risk for future outbreaks. During this study, historical data analysis was conducted to understand the epidemiology of the recent outbreak in 2012-2014. Entomological surveillance was also carried out, including both mosquito species identification and molecular screening for arboviruses, as well as a household survey to understand the knowledge and attitudes towards yellow fever (YF) within the affected areas and to assess community-level practices for YF prevention. We found a high abundance of Aedes simpsoni complex in the context of low vaccination coverage. Community knowledge and practice levels were low for reducing potential breeding sites, highlighting the need for increased dissemination of information to community members on how to reduce their risk of exposure to mosquito vectors of arboviruses.

Source connections

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Mulchandani, R., Massebo, F., Bocho, F., Jeffries, C. L., Walker, T., Messenger, L. A.. 2018-05-11. A community-level investigation of the yellow fever virus outbreak in South Omo Zone, South-West Ethiopia, 2012-2014. https://doi.org/10.1101/320317

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

Translating surveillance data into incidence estimates

Monitoring a population for a disease requires the hosts to be sampled and tested for the pathogen. This results in sampling series from which to estimate the disease incidence, i.e. the proportion of hosts infected. Existing estimation methods assume that disease incidence is not changing between monitoring rounds, resulting in underestimation of the disease incidence. In this paper we develop an incidence estimation model accounting for epidemic growth with monitoring rounds sampling varying incidence. We also show how to accommodate the asymptomatic period characteristic to most diseases. For practical use, we produce an approximation of the model, which is subsequently shown accurate for relevant epidemic and sampling parameters. Both the approximation and the full model are applied to stochastic spatial simulations of epidemics. The results prove their consistency for a very wide range of situations.

epidemiology

The Swiss Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia registry: objectives, methods and first results

Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia (PCD) is a rare hereditary, multi-organ disease caused by defects in ciliary structure and function. It results in a wide range of clinical manifestations, most commonly in the upper and lower airways. Central data collection in national and international registries is essential to studying the epidemiology of rare diseases and filling in gaps in knowledge of diseases such as PCD. For this reason, the Swiss Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia Registry (CH-PCD) was founded in 2013 as a collaborative project between epidemiologists and adult and paediatric pulmonologists.\n\nThe registry records patients of any age, suffering from PCD, who are treated and resident in Switzerland. It collects information from patients identified through physicians, diagnostic facilities, and patient organisations. The registry dataset contains data on diagnostic evaluations, lung function, microbiology and imaging, symptoms, treatments, and hospitalizations.\n\nBy May 2018, CH-PCD has contacted 566 physicians of different specialties and identified 134 patients with PCD. At present this number represents an overall 1 in 63,000 prevalence of people diagnosed with PCD in Switzerland. Prevalence differs by age and region; it is highest in children and adults younger than 30 years, and in Espace Mittelland. The median age of patients in the registry is 25 years (range 5-73), and 49 patients have a definite PCD diagnosis based on recent international guidelines. Data from CH-PCD are contributed to international collaborative studies and the registry facilitates patient identification for nested studies.\n\nCH-PCD has proven to be a valuable research tool that already has highlighted weaknesses in PCD clinical practice in Switzerland. Development of centralised diagnostic and management centres and adherence to international guidelines are needed to improve diagnosis and management--particularly for adult PCD patients.

epidemiology

Perfect Counterfactuals for Epidemic Simulations

Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets of simulations are conducted, one with the intervetnion, and one without, and epidemic sizes (or some related metric) are compared to estimate the effect of the intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics are larger than uncontrolled ones if there is substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from this approach can include a negative effect even for an effective intervention. To more precisely estimate the number of cases an intervention will prevent within a single epidemic, here we develop a single world approach to matching simulations of controlled epidemics to their exact uncontrolled counterfac-tual. Our method borrows concepts from percolation approaches prune out possible epidemic histories and create potential epidemic graph that can be realized to create perfectly matched controlled and uncontrolled epidemics. We present an implementation of this method for a common class of compartmental models, and its application in a simple SIR model. Results illustrate how, at the cost of some computation time, this method substantially narrows confidence intervals and avoids non-sensical inferences.

epidemiology