Effects of recombination on multi-drug resistance evolution in Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Tran, K. T.; Nguyen, T. D.; Weissman, D. B.; Li, E. Z.; Mok, S.; Small-Saunders, J. L.; Bousema, T.; Zupko, R. J.; Tran, T. N.-A.; Boni, M. F.

doi:10.1101/2024.12.18.628924

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2024.12.18.628924

Effects of recombination on multi-drug resistance evolution in Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Tran, K. T.·Nguyen, T. D.·Weissman, D. B.·Li, E. Z.·Mok, S.·Small-Saunders, J. L.·Bousema, T.·Zupko, R. J.·Tran, T. N.-A.·Boni, M. F.

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

When multiple beneficial alleles are present in a population but not linked together in any one individual, there is no general evolutionary result that determines whether recombination will speed up or slow down the emergence and evolution of genotypes carrying multiple beneficial alleles. Translated to infectious disease control, this evolutionary uncertainty means that when multiple types of drug resistance are present we do not know whether recombination will act more strongly to (1) bring together single-resistant genotypes into multi-drug resistant (MDR) genotypes, or (2) break apart MDR genotypes into single-resistant genotypes. In this paper, we introduce a new version of an established and validated individual-based malaria transmission model where we have added individual mosquito bites, interrupted feeding by mosquitoes, 25 drug-resistance related loci, and individual recombination events of different Plasmodium falciparum genotypes inside the mosquito. Recombination among P. falciparum genotypes in this model occurs from two sources of variation, multi-clonal infections and interrupted feeding by mosquitoes, and we show that 80% to 97% of MDR recombinant falciparum genotypes are projected to occur from single uninterrupted bites on hosts with multi-clonal infections (for malaria prevalence > 5%). Increases in the models interrupted feeding rate slowly increase the number of recombination events occurring from interrupted feeds. A comparison of drug-resistance management strategies with this new model shows that, over a 15-year timeframe, triple artemisinin-combination therapies (ACT) strategies show the largest reductions in treatment failures and the longest delays until artemisinin resistance reaches a critical 1% threshold. Multiple first-line therapies (MFT) are second best under these criteria, and ACT cycling approaches are third best. MFT strategies generate a greater diversity of recombinant genotypes but fewer recombination events generating MDR and slower emergence of these recombinant MDR genotypes.

Explore related subjects

evolutionary biology Preprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Tran, K. T., Nguyen, T. D., Weissman, D. B., Li, E. Z., Mok, S., Small-Saunders, J. L., Bousema, T., Zupko, R. J., Tran, T. N.-A., Boni, M. F.. 2024-12-21. Effects of recombination on multi-drug resistance evolution in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.12.18.628924

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Denisovan introgression left differential selection regimes in Humans and Neanderthals on the SLC30A9 gene

Signals of positive selection around the SLC30A9 gene have been reported in human populations outside Africa. Selection likely acted on a highly differentiated single-nucleotide polymorphism, rs1047626, leading to a non-synonymous substitution in the encoded zinc transporter. Because of the striking similarity between the putatively selected SLC30A9 haplotype observed in several current human populations and the Denisovan individual, previous work has proposed adaptive introgression. Yet alternative explanations, including ancient human variation, and the precise archaic source -Neanderthal or Denisovan- remained unresolved. Considering the potentially complex evolution of SLC30A9, we applied Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms coupled to machine learning to investigate the most plausible evolutionary origin of this substitution. After modelling different evolutionary scenarios with forward-in-time simulations, our results highlight that the most probable scenario is a Denisovan origin of the rs1047626 polymorphism. However, the allele likely introgressed into Neanderthals first and was then passed into non-African modern humans. Moreover, the derived allele frequency for rs1047626 across several African populations is consistent with back-to-Africa migrations. Finally, our ABC analyses indicate strong positive selection in East Asian populations and other out-of-Africa populations, whereas in Neanderthal populations, the selection coefficient was probably neutral or slightly deleterious.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

RELAX does not reproduce its own estimates at default settings, and its output does not show it

Selection-intensity estimates from RELAX are reported as a point value of K with a likelihood-ratio P. We report that, at default settings and on data of ordinary size, the program does not reproduce its own fits. Of 27 enzyme entries refitted under two optimiser configurations, none reproduced its log-likelihood to within 0.01 units; the median change was 103 units, the largest over 3,400, and four verdicts reversed. Eighty null orthologues reproduced none. A byte-identical command returned a distinct likelihood on every repetition, single-threaded, across three releases, and on alignments simulated under the fitted model, where 3.3 per cent of replicates reproduced. The documented random-number seed never reaches the generator when assigned on the command line, yet reads back as the value supplied. PAML localises the cause: its two-ratio model, without site classes, reproduced its log-likelihood for all 288 genes; its site-class models agreed for 27 to 67 per cent. The instability follows the mixture over sites, not the program. The output does not show it: 46 of 410 fits ended with a negative likelihood-ratio statistic, impossible under convergence, and 123 of 410 report a K re-estimated under a domain restriction rather than the unconstrained maximum. Of 234 published studies using RELAX, none reported a seed. Seeding while holding the thread count at one reproduced sixty of sixty runs on twenty genes under two releases; the seed alone reproduced none of five, and no documentation states the second condition. We recommend that fits be repeated and their dispersion published.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Sequential accumulation of adaptive alleles forms an inversion supergene in deer mice

Supergenes are clusters of co-inherited loci that affect multiple or complex phenotypes. Despite the growing number of chromosomal inversions identified as supergenes in natural populations, their molecular basis and evolutionary history often remain obscure. Here, we identified two candidate genes, Slc45a2 and Npr3, within a 41-Mb inversion supergene in the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) that respectively drive darker coats and longer tails - two traits associated with forest adaptation. Mice homozygous for the inversion (inv/inv) exhibit elevated Slc45a2 expression in melanocytes relative to the congenic standard genotype (std/std), disrupting pheomelanin production. In parallel, downregulation of Npr3 in inv/inv mouse growth plates prolongs postnatal growth of caudal vertebrae, resulting in tail elongation. Population-level analyses further implicate that this supergene arose through the subsequent accumulation of the Npr3 allele within the inversion, rather than by capturing all beneficial mutations at its origin.

evolutionary biology↗