Biology subjects

Boni, M. F.

Publications and source records attributed to Boni, M. F..

15 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Effects of recombination on multi-drug resistance evolution in Plasmodium falciparum malaria

When multiple beneficial alleles are present in a population but not linked together in any one individual, there is no general evolutionary result that determines whether recombination will speed up or slow down the emergence and evolution of genotypes carrying multiple beneficial alleles. Translated to infectious disease control, this evolutionary uncertainty means that when multiple types of drug resistance are present we do not know whether recombination will act more strongly to (1) bring together single-resistant genotypes into multi-drug resistant (MDR) genotypes, or (2) break apart MDR genotypes into single-resistant genotypes. In this paper, we introduce a new version of an established and validated individual-based malaria transmission model where we have added individual mosquito bites, interrupted feeding by mosquitoes, 25 drug-resistance related loci, and individual recombination events of different Plasmodium falciparum genotypes inside the mosquito. Recombination among P. falciparum genotypes in this model occurs from two sources of variation, multi-clonal infections and interrupted feeding by mosquitoes, and we show that 80% to 97% of MDR recombinant falciparum genotypes are projected to occur from single uninterrupted bites on hosts with multi-clonal infections (for malaria prevalence > 5%). Increases in the models interrupted feeding rate slowly increase the number of recombination events occurring from interrupted feeds. A comparison of drug-resistance management strategies with this new model shows that, over a 15-year timeframe, triple artemisinin-combination therapies (ACT) strategies show the largest reductions in treatment failures and the longest delays until artemisinin resistance reaches a critical 1% threshold. Multiple first-line therapies (MFT) are second best under these criteria, and ACT cycling approaches are third best. MFT strategies generate a greater diversity of recombinant genotypes but fewer recombination events generating MDR and slower emergence of these recombinant MDR genotypes.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Age-dependent heterogeneity in the antigenic effects of mutations to influenza hemagglutinin

ABSTRACTHuman influenza virus evolves to escape neutralization by polyclonal antibodies. However, we have a limited understanding of how the antigenic effects of viral mutations vary across the human population, and how this heterogeneity affects virus evolution. Here we use deep mutational scanning to map how mutations to the hemagglutinin (HA) proteins of the A/Hong Kong/45/2019 (H3N2) and A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2) strains affect neutralization by serum from individuals of a variety of ages. The effects of HA mutations on serum neutralization differ across age groups in ways that can be partially rationalized in terms of exposure histories. Mutations that fixed in influenza variants after 2020 cause the greatest escape from sera from younger individuals. Overall, these results demonstrate that influenza faces distinct antigenic selection regimes from different age groups, and suggest approaches to understand how this heterogeneous selection shapes viral evolution.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2023

Role of Seasonal Importation and Random Genetic Drift on Selection for Drug-Resistant Genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum in High Transmission Settings

Historically Plasmodium falciparum has followed a pattern of drug resistance first appearing in low transmission settings before spreading to high transmission settings. Several features of low-transmission regions are hypothesized as explanations: higher chance of symptoms and treatment seeking, better treatment access, less within-host competition among clones, and lower rates of recombination. Here, we test whether importation of drug-resistant parasites is more likely to lead to successful emergence and establishment in low-transmission or high-transmission periods of the same epidemiological setting, using a spatial, individual-based stochastic model of malaria and drug-resistance evolution calibrated for Burkina Faso. Upon controlling for the timing of importation of drug-resistant genotypes and examination of key model variables, we found that drug-resistant genotypes imported during the low transmission season were, (1) more susceptible to stochastic extinction due to the action of random genetic drift, and (2) more likely to lead to establishment of drug resistance when parasites are able to survive early stochastic loss due to drift. This implies that rare importation events are more likely to lead to establishment if they occur during a high-transmission season, but that constant importation (e.g., neighboring countries with high levels of resistance) may produce a greater risk during low-transmission periods.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

Assessing emergence risk of double-resistant and triple-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum

Delaying and slowing antimalarial drug resistance evolution is a priority for the World Health Organization and for National Malaria Control Programs in malaria-endemic countries. Until novel therapies become available, the mainstay of antimalarial treatment will continue to be artemisinin combination therapy (ACT), with artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-amodiaquine, and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine the three primary therapies deployed worldwide. Deployment of ACTs can be optimized to minimize evolutionary pressure for drug resistance by deploying them as a set of co-equal multiple first-line therapies (MFT) rather than rotating therapies in and out of use. Here, we consider one potential detriment of MFT policies, namely, that the simultaneous deployment of multiple ACTs could drive the evolution of different resistance alleles concurrently and that these resistance alleles could then be brought together by recombination into double-resistant or triple-resistant parasites. Using an individual-based Plasmodium falciparum transmission model, we compare MFT and cycling policies over 20-year periods in malaria transmission settings ranging from 0.1% to 25% Plasmodium falciparum prevalence (PfPR2-10). We define a total risk measure for multi-drug resistance (MDR) by summing the area under the genotype-frequency curves (AUC) of double- and triple-resistant genotypes. When PfPR [≥] 1%, total MDR risk as measured by AUC is 4% to 90% lower under MFT policies than under cycling policies, irrespective of whether resistance is imported or emerges de novo. When PfPR = 0.1%, there is little statistical difference in MDR risk between MFT and cycling.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Selection analysis identifies unusual clustered mutational changes in Omicron lineage BA.1 that likely impact Spike function

Among the 30 non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (i) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (ii) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (iii) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any genomes within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron over all previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Pre-existing partner-drug resistance facilitates the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance: a consensus modelling study

BackgroundArtemisinin-resistant genotypes have now emerged a minimum of five times on three continents despite recommendations that all artemisinins be deployed as artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). Widespread resistance to the non-artemisinin partner drugs in ACTs has the potential to limit the clinical and resistance benefits provided by combination therapy. MethodsUsing a consensus modelling approach with three individual-based mathematical models of Plasmodium falciparum transmission, we evaluate the effects of pre-existing partner-drug resistance and ACT deployment on artemisinin resistance evolution. We evaluate settings where dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ), artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ), or artemether-lumefantrine (AL) are deployed as first-line therapy. We use time until 0.25 artemisinin resistance allele frequency (the establishment time) as the primary outcome measure. FindingsHigher frequencies of pre-existing partner-drug resistant genotypes lead to earlier establishment of artemisinin resistance. Across all scenarios and pre-existing frequencies of partner-drug resistance explored, a 0.10 increase in partner-drug resistance frequency on average corresponded to 0.7 to 5.0 years loss of artemisinin efficacy. However, the majority of reductions in time to artemisinin establishment were observed after the first increment from 0.0 to 0.10 partner-drug resistance genotype frequency. InterpretationPartner-drug resistance in ACTs facilitates the early emergence of artemisinin resistance and is a major public health concern. Higher grade partner-drug resistance has the largest effect, with piperaquine-resistance accelerating early emergence of artemisinin-resistant alleles the most. Continued investment in molecular surveillance of partner-drug resistant genotypes to guide choice of first-line ACT is paramount. FundingBill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Wellcome Trust.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2021

Antimalarial mass drug administration in large populations and the evolution of drug resistance

Mass drug administration (MDA) with antimalarials has been shown to reduce prevalence and interrupt transmission in small populations, in populations with reliable access to antimalarial drugs, and in populations where sustained improvements in diagnosis and treatment are possible. Effective MDA eliminates drug-resistant parasites which has the long-term benefit of extending the useful therapeutic life of first-line therapies for all populations, not just the focal population where MDA was carried out. However, in order to plan elimination measures effectively, it is necessary to characterize the conditions under which failed MDA could exacerbate resistance. We use an individual-based stochastic model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission to evaluate this risk in large populations (>40K) where access to antimalarial treatments may not be uniformly high and where re-importation of drug-resistant parasites may be common. We find that drug-resistance evolution can be accelerated by MDA when all three of the following conditions are met: (1) strong genetic bottlenecking that falls short of elimination, (2) re-importation of resistant genotypes, and (3) continued selection pressure during routine case management post-MDA. Accelerated resistance levels are not immediate but follow the rebound of malaria cases post-MDA, if this is allowed to occur. Crucially, resistance is driven by the selection pressure during routine case management post-MDA and not the selection pressure exerted during the MDA itself. Second, we find that increasing treatment coverage post-MDA increases the probability of local elimination in low-transmission regions (PfPR < 2%) in scenarios with both low and high levels of drug-resistance importation. This emphasizes the importance of preparation and planning to ensure that MDA has a high probability of leading to elimination, and the necessity of supporting public health infrastructure to provide high coverage of diagnosis and treatment post-MDA.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Poultry farmer response to disease outbreaks in smallholder farming systems

Avian influenza outbreaks have been occurring on smallholder poultry farms in Asia for two decades. Farmer responses to these outbreaks can slow down or accelerate virus transmission. We used a longitudinal survey of 53 small-scale chicken farms in southern Vietnam to investigate the impact of outbreaks with disease-induced mortality on harvest rate, vaccination, and disinfection behaviors. We found that in small broiler flocks ([≤]16 birds/flock) the estimated probability of harvest was 56% higher when an outbreak occurred, and 214% higher if an outbreak with sudden deaths occurred in the same month. Vaccination and disinfection were strongly positively correlated with flock size and farm size, respectively. Small-scale farmers - the overwhelming majority of poultry producers in low-income countries - tend to rely on rapid sale of birds to mitigate losses from diseases. As depopulated birds are sent to markets or trading networks, this reactive behavior has the potential to enhance onward transmission. One sentence summaryA cohort study of fifty three small-scale poultry farms in southern Vietnam reveals that when outbreaks occur with symptoms similar to highly pathogenic avian influenza, farmers respond by sending their chickens to market early, potentially exacerbating the effects of the outbreak.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic

There are outstanding evolutionary questions on the recent emergence of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2/hCoV-19 in Hubei province that caused the COVID-19 pandemic, including (1) the relationship of the new virus to the SARS-related coronaviruses, (2) the role of bats as a reservoir species, (3) the potential role of other mammals in the emergence event, and (4) the role of recombination in viral emergence. Here, we address these questions and find that the sarbecoviruses - the viral subgenus responsible for the emergence of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 - exhibit frequent recombination, but the SARS-CoV-2 lineage itself is not a recombinant of any viruses detected to date. In order to employ phylogenetic methods to date the divergence events between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir, recombinant regions of a 68-genome sarbecovirus alignment were removed with three independent methods. Bayesian evolutionary rate and divergence date estimates were consistent for all three recombination-free alignments and robust to two different prior specifications based on HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV evolutionary rates. Divergence dates between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir were estimated as 1948 (95% HPD: 1879-1999), 1969 (95% HPD: 1930-2000), and 1982 (95% HPD: 1948-2009). Despite intensified characterization of sarbecoviruses since SARS, the lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed for decades in bats and been transmitted to other hosts such as pangolins. The occurrence of a third significant coronavirus emergence in 17 years together with the high prevalence and virus diversity in bats implies that these viruses are likely to cross species boundaries again. In BriefThe Betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a member of the sarbecovirus subgenus which shows frequent recombination in its evolutionary history. We characterize the extent of this genetic exchange and identify non-recombining regions of the sarbecovirus genome using three independent methods to remove the effects of recombination. Using these non-recombining genome regions and prior information on coronavirus evolutionary rates, we obtain estimates from three approaches that the most likely divergence date of SARS-CoV-2 from its most closely related available bat sequences ranges from 1948 to 1982. Key PointsO_LIRaTG13 is the closest available bat virus to SARS-CoV-2; a sub-lineage of these bat viruses is able to infect humans. Two sister lineages of the RaTG13/SARS-CoV-2 lineage infect Malayan pangolins. C_LIO_LIThe sarbecoviruses show a pattern of deep recombination events, indicating that there are high levels of co-infection in horseshoe bats and that the viral pool can generate novel allele combinations and substantial genetic diversity; the sarbecoviruses are efficient explorers of phenotype space. C_LIO_LIThe SARS-CoV-2 lineage is not a recent recombinant, at least not involving any of the bat or pangolin viruses sampled to date. C_LIO_LINon-recombinant regions of the sarbecoviruses can be identified, allowing for phylogenetic inference and dating to be performed. We constructed three such regions using different methods. C_LIO_LIWe estimate that RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 diverged 40 to 70 years ago. There is a diverse unsampled reservoir of generalist viruses established in horseshoe bats. C_LIO_LIWhile an intermediate host responsible for the zoonotic event cannot be ruled out, the relevant evolution for spillover to humans very likely occurred in horseshoe bats. C_LI

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Game theory of vaccination and depopulation for managing avian influenza on poultry farms

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is endemic in domestic poultry populations in East and South Asia and is a major threat to human health, animal health, and the poultry production industry. The behavioral response of farmers to the disease and its epidemiological effects are still poorly understood. We considered a symmetric game in a region with widespread smallholder poultry production, where the players are broiler poultry farmers and between-farm disease transmission is both environmental (local) and mediated by the trade of infected birds. Three types of farmer behaviors were modelled: vaccination, depopulation, and cessation of poultry farming. We found that the transmission level of avian influenza through trade networks had strong qualitative effects on the systems epidemiological-economic equilibria. In the case of low trade-based transmission, when the monetary cost of infection is sufficiently high, depopulation behavior persists and maintains a disease-free equilibrium. In the case of high trade-based transmission, depopulation behavior has perverse epidemiological effects - as it accelerates the spread of disease via poultry traders - but has a high enough payoff to farmers that it persists at the systems game theoretic equilibrium. In this situation, state interventions should focus on making effective vaccination technologies available at a low price rather than penalizing infected farms. Our results emphasize the need in endemic countries to further investigate the commercial circuits through which birds from infected farms are traded.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Demographic features and mortality risks in smallholder poultry farms of the Mekong river delta region

This study describes the demographic structure and dynamics of small scale poultry farms of the Mekong river delta region, one of the worlds highest-risk regions for avian influenza outbreaks. Fifty farms were monitored over a 20-month period, with farm sizes, species, age, arrival/departure of poultry, and farm management practices recorded monthly. The history of poultry flocks in the sampled farms was recovered using a flock-matching algorithm. Median flock population sizes were 16 for chickens (IQR: 10 - 40), 32 for ducks (IQR: 18 - 101) and 11 for Muscovy ducks (IQR: 7 - 18); farm size distributions for the three species were heavily right-skewed. There was substantial flock overlap on almost all farms, with only one farm practicing an all-in-all-out management system. The rate of interspecific contacts was high, with two out of three farms housing at least two bird species. Among poultry species, demographic dynamics varied. Muscovy ducks were kept for long periods, in small numbers and outdoors, while chickens and ducks were farmed in larger numbers, indoors or in pens, with more rapid flock turnover. Most chicks were sold young to be fattened on other farms, and broiler and layer ducks had a short production period and higher degree of specialization. The rate of mortality due to disease did not differ much among species, with birds being less likely to die from disease at older ages, but frequency of disease symptoms differed by species. Time series of disease-associated mortality and population size were correlated for Muscovy ducks (Kendalls coefficient {tau} = 0.49, p value < 0.01).\n\nImpacts O_LIThe structure and dynamics of poultry populations kept in small scale farms in the Mekong river delta were accurately described.\nC_LIO_LIPoultry farms mix poultry of different species, ages, and production types, with multiple overlapping flocks present on a farm at all times. This promotes the persistence of pathogens.\nC_LIO_LIThe three main farmed poultry species of poultry (chickens, ducks and Muscovy ducks) are managed differently and have different demographic characteristics.\nC_LI

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

MULTILOCUS SEQUENCE TYPING REVEALS A UNIQUE CO-DOMINANT POPULATION STRUCTURE OF CRYPTOCOCCUS NEOFORMANS VAR. GRUBII IN VIETNAM

Cryptococcosis is amongst the most important invasive fungal infections globally, with cryptococcal meningitis causing an estimated 180,000 deaths each year in HIV infected patients alone. Patients with other forms of immunosuppression are also at risk, and disease is increasingly recognized in apparently immunocompetent individuals. Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii (serotype A, molecular type VNI) has a global distribution and is responsible for the majority of cases. Here, we used the consensus ISHAM Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) for C. neoformans to define the population structure of clinical isolates of Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii from Vietnam (n=136) and Laos (n=81). We placed these isolates into the global context using published MLST data from 8 other countries (total N = 669). We observed a phylo-geographical relationship in which Laos was similar to its Southeast Asian neighbor Thailand in being dominated (83%) by Sequence Type (ST) 4 and its Single Locus Variant ST6. On the other hand, Vietnam was uniquely intermediate between Southeast Asia and East Asia having both ST4/ST6 (35%) and ST5 (48%) which causes the majority of cases in East Asia. Analysis of genetic distance (Fst) between different populations of Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii supported the intermediate nature of the population from Vietnam. A strong association between ST5 and infection in apparently immunocompetent, HIV-uninfected patients was observed in Vietnam (OR: 7.97, [95%CI: 3.18-19.97], p < 0.0001). Our study emphasizes that Vietnam, with its intermediate Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii population structure, provides the strongest epidemiological evidence of the relationship between ST5 and infection of HIV-uninfected patients. Human population genetic distances within the region suggest these differences in CNVG population across Southeast Asia are driven by ecological factors rather than host factors.\n\nAuthor summaryCryptococcus neoformans is a yeast that causes meningitis in people, usually with damaged immune systems. There are >180,000 deaths in HIV-infected patients each year, most occurring where there are the highest HIV/AIDS disease burdens. Vietnam and Laos have contributed significantly to clinical trials aiming to improve the treatment of cryptococcal meningitis, but the relationship of isolates from these countries to the global population is not yet described. Here, we address this knowledge gap by using Multilocus Sequence Typing to study the population of Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii (CNVG) in Laos and Vietnam, with the specific aim of incorporating these populations into the wider global context. We found that, in most countries, a single lineage (family) of strains was responsible for most disease. The Vietnamese CNVG population was unusual in that 2 main lineages circulated at the same time. The Vietnamese CNVG population occupies a middle ground between Thailand/Laos in the west and China in the east. The differences in population structure moving from West to East are probably due to ecological differences. Disease in HIV uninfected patients was almost always due to members of a single family of strains (ST5).

molecular biology↗

bioRxiv2017

The decline of malaria in Vietnam, 1991-2014

A central component of malaria control initiatives throughout the world is the use of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) for treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparium malaria. Despite the well-documented clinical efficacy of ACTs, the population-level effects of ACT case management on malaria transmission have not been studied thoroughly until recently. An ideal case study for the population-level effects of artemisinin use can be found in Vietnam, where a major increase of malaria cases in the 1980s was followed by the gradual adoption of artemisinin-based clinical case management. We assembled annual data from Vietnams National Institutes for Malariology, Parasitology, and Entomology showing the degree to which artemisinin therapies were adopted in different provinces, the effort placed on vector control, and the funding available to provincial malaria control programs, from 1991 to 2014. Data on urbanization were also collected for this period. We found that a 10% increase in the artemisinin proportion of treatments procured by a provincial control program corresponded to a 32.8% (95% CI: 27.7 - 37.5%) decline in estimated malaria cases; the association persisted and the effect size was nearly unchanged if confirmed cases or suspected cases were used. There was no consistent effect of vector control on malaria cases in Vietnam as a whole, nor was any effect found when the data were broken up regionally. The association between urbanization and malaria was generally negative and sometimes statistically significant. This was most pronounced in the central region of Vietnam, where a 10% increase in urbanization corresponded to a 43.3% (95% CI: 21.6 - 58.9%) decrease in suspected malaria incidence; this association was not statistically significant if confirmed cases or estimated cases were used. The decline of malaria in Vietnam from 1991 to 2014 can largely be attributed to the rapid adoption of artemisinin-based drugs. Recent analyses of aggregated data from Africa have shown that insecticide-treated nets have had the greatest effect on lowering malaria prevalence over the past fifteen years, suggesting that the success of different types of malaria interventions is region specific. Continuing global efforts on malaria elimination should focus on both vector control measures and increased access to artemisinin-combination therapies.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Non-annual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting

In temperate countries, influenza and other viral respiratory diseases often have distinct seasonal peaks occurring during colder, wintertime months. However, little is known about the dynamics of influenza and viral respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics, despite high morbidity and a clear epidemiological link between tropical and temperate countries. In temperate countries, the dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases are often analyzed using syndromic surveillance data describing influenza-like illness (ILI) as ILI is highly correlated with virological surveillance for influenza. To obtain a detailed picture of respiratory disease incidence patterns in a large tropical city, we established an mHealth study in community outpatient clinics in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (11N latitude). From August 2009 through December 2015, clinics reported daily case numbers of ILI using standard mobile-phone SMS messaging. A subset of these clinics performed molecular diagnostics for influenza A and B viruses. Unlike the annual patterns seen in temperate countries, ILI activity in Ho Chi Minh City exhibited strong non-annual periodicity and was not correlated with PCR-confirmed influenza. The dominant periodicity in the data was approximately 200 days. This was confirmed by a time series decomposition, a step-wise regression analysis on annual and non-annual covariates, and a forecasting exercise showing that forecasting was 30% to 40% more accurate when a 200-day non-annual cycle was included in the forecast. This suggests, for the first-time, that a non-annual cycle may be an essential driver of ILI dynamics in the tropics. This raises new questions about the seasonality and drivers of respiratory disease transmission in tropical countries.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2016

Structure of general-population antibody titer distributions to influenza A virus

Seroepidemiological studies aim to understand population-level exposure and immunity to infectious diseases. Results from serological assays are normally presented as binary outcomes describing the presence or absence of pathogen-specific antibody, despite the fact that many assays measure continuous quantities. A populations natural distribution of antibody titers to an endemic infectious disease may in fact include information on multiple serological states - e.g. naivete, recent infection, non-recent infection - depending on the disease in question and the acquisition and waning patterns of host immunity. In this study, we investigate a collection of 20,152 general-population serum samples from southern Vietnam collected between 2009 and 2013 from which we report antibody titers to the influenza virus HA1 protein using a continuous titer measurement from a protein microarray assay. We describe the distributions of antibody titers to subtypes 2009 H1N1 and H3N2. Using a model selection approach to fit mixture distributions, we show that 2009 H1N1 antibody titers fall into four titer subgroups and that H3N2 titers fall into three subgroups. For H1N1, our interpretation is that the two highest-titer subgroups correspond to recent infection and historical infection, which is consistent with 2009 pandemic attack rates. For H3N2, observations censored at the highest titer dilutions make similar interpretations difficult to validate.

epidemiology↗