Birds affected by a 2021 avian mortality event are strongly associated with supplemental feeding and ground foraging behaviors

Yala, A. J.; Baillargeon, T.; Gordon, L.; Greening, S.; Mwakibete, L.; Sevigny, J.; Shearn-Bochsler, V.; Burrell, C.; Casey, C.; Driscoll, C.; Klein, P.; Lewis, N.; Murphy, L.; Poppenga, R.; Thomas, K.; Yabsley, M.; Gagne, R. B.; Nemeth, N.; Tato, C.; Needle, D.; Ogbunugafor, C. B.

doi:10.1101/2024.05.14.593614

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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2024.05.14.593614

Birds affected by a 2021 avian mortality event are strongly associated with supplemental feeding and ground foraging behaviors

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Abstract

In 2021, news outlets and state natural resources agencies reported a large number of avian deaths across several states in the eastern and midwestern USA. This event fomented a rapid and robust response from animal health experts from across the country. Given the clustered pattern of disease and death, an infectious etiology was rigorously investigated. No single causative pathogen was identified, leaving the cause and thus epidemiology of the mortality event unex-plained. In this study, we attempted to hone in on potential causes or contributors to this event by constructing a dataset on affected birds life history, phylogeny, and ecology. After a preliminary analysis of these features, we developed a statistical pipeline to test two hypotheses regarding features of birds associated with the mortality event: (1) that a significant proportion of affected birds in the total sample are members of the Cornell Feederwatch list (i.e., birds that consume supplemental feed, and their predators), and that (2) ground-feeding species would be significantly represented in the sample. While logistic regression models support the plausibility of the two hypotheses, they are statistically indistinguishable. We discuss the implications of these findings, propose future work, and highlight the importance of ecological and behavioral expertise in understanding epidemiological phenomena.

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Yala, A. J., Baillargeon, T., Gordon, L., Greening, S., Mwakibete, L., Sevigny, J., Shearn-Bochsler, V., Burrell, C., Casey, C., Driscoll, C., Klein, P., Lewis, N., Murphy, L., Poppenga, R., Thomas, K., Yabsley, M., Gagne, R. B., Nemeth, N., Tato, C., Needle, D., Ogbunugafor, C. B.. 2024-05-15. Birds affected by a 2021 avian mortality event are strongly associated with supplemental feeding and ground foraging behaviors. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.05.14.593614

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