The (Limited?) Utility of Brain Age as a Biomarker for Capturing Cognitive Decline

Abstract

Fluid cognition usually declines as people grow older. For decades, neuroscientists have been on a quest to search for a biomarker that can help capture fluid cognition. One well-known candidate is Brain Age, or a predicted value based on machine-learning models built to predict chronological age from brain MRI data. Here we aim to formally evaluate the utility of Brain Age as a biomarker for capturing fluid cognition among older individuals. Using 504 aging participants (36-100 years old) from the Human Connectome Project in Aging, we created 26 age-prediction models for Brain Age based on different combinations of MRI modalities. We first tested how much Brain Age from these age-prediction models added to what we had already known from a persons chronological age in capturing fluid cognition. Based on the commonality analyses, we found a large degree of overlap between Brain Age and chronological age, so much so that, at best, Brain Age could uniquely add only around 1.6% in explaining variation in fluid cognition. Next, the age-prediction models that performed better at predicting chronological age did NOT necessarily create better Brain Age for capturing fluid cognition over and above chronological age. Instead, better-performing age-prediction models created Brain Age that overlapped larger with chronological age, up to around 29% out of 32%, in explaining fluid cognition, thus not improving the models utility to capture cognitive abilities. Lastly, we tested how much Brain Age missed the variation in the brain MRI that could explain fluid cognition. To capture this variation in the brain MRI that explained fluid cognition, we computed Brain Cognition, or a predicted value based on prediction models built to directly predict fluid cognition (as opposed to chronological age) from brain MRI data. We found that Brain Cognition captured up to an additional 11% of the total variation in fluid cognition that was missing from the model with only Brain Age and chronological age, leading to around a 1/3-time improvement of the total variation explained. Accordingly, we demonstrated the limited utility of Brain Age as a biomarker for fluid cognition and made some suggestions to ensure the utility of Brain Age in explaining fluid cognition and other phenotypes of interest.