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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2021.11.30.470341

Socioeconomics drive population change in the world's largest carnivores

Johnson, T. F.·Isaac, N. J. B.·Paviolo, A.·Gonzalez-Saurez, M.
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Abstract

Land-use1,2 and climate change3-5 have been linked to wildlife population declines, but the role of socioeconomic factors in driving declines, and promoting population recoveries, remains relatively unexplored despite its likely importance. Here, we evaluate a comprehensive array of potential drivers of population changes observed in some of the worlds most charismatic species - large mammalian carnivores. Our results reveal a strong role of human socioeconomic development, which we find has a greater impact on population change than habitat loss and climate change. Increases in socioeconomic development are linked to sharp population declines but, importantly, once development is high, carnivore populations have the potential to recover. These links between human development and wildlife population health highlight the challenges ahead to achieve the different UN Sustainable development goals.

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Johnson, T. F., Isaac, N. J. B., Paviolo, A., Gonzalez-Saurez, M.. 2021-12-01. Socioeconomics drive population change in the world's largest carnivores. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.30.470341

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