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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2021.10.04.463046

Disruption of metapopulation structure effectively reduces Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease spread at the expense of abundance and genetic diversity

Durrant, R.·Hamede, R.·Wells, K.·Lurgi, M.
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Abstract

Metapopulation structure (i.e. the spatial arrangement of local populations and corridors between them) plays a fundamental role in the persistence of wildlife populations, but can also drive the spread of infectious diseases. While the disruption of metapopulation connectivity can reduce disease spread, it can also impair host resilience by disrupting gene flow and colonisation dynamics. Thus, a pressing challenge for many wildlife populations is to elucidate whether the benefits of disease management methods that reduce metapopulation connectivity outweigh the associated risks. Directly transmissible cancers are clonal malignant cell lines capable to spread through host populations without immune recognition, when susceptible and infected hosts become in close contact. Using an individual-based metapopulation model we investigate the effects of the interplay between host dispersal, disease transmission rate and inter-individual contact distance for transmission (determining within-population mixing) on the spread and persistence of a transmissible cancer, Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), from local to regional scales. Further, we explore population isolation scenarios to devise management strategies to mitigate disease spread. Disease spread, and the ensuing population declines, are synergistically determined by individuals dispersal, disease transmission rate and within-population mixing. Low to intermediate transmission rates can be magnified by high dispersal and inter-individual transmission distance. Once disease transmission rate is high, dispersal and inter-individual contact distance do not impact the outcome of the disease transmission dynamics. Isolation of local populations effectively reduced metapopulation-level disease prevalence but caused severe declines in metapopulation size and genetic diversity. The relative position of managed (i.e. isolated) populations within the metapopulation had a significant effect on disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of considering metapopulation structure when implementing metapopulation-scale disease control measures. Our findings suggests that population isolation is not an ideal management method for preventing disease spread in species inhabiting already fragmented landscapes, where genetic diversity and extinction risk are already a concern, such as the Tasmanian devil.

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Durrant, R., Hamede, R., Wells, K., Lurgi, M.. 2021-10-04. Disruption of metapopulation structure effectively reduces Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease spread at the expense of abundance and genetic diversity. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.04.463046

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