The effect of climate change on the distribution of Canidae

Abstract

Land use by humans and climate change have been seriously affecting the distribution of species resulting in a quarter of all known mammals currently threatened with extinction. Here, we modeled the present and future potential distributions of all 36 extant Canidae species to evaluate their response to future climate scenarios. In addition, we tested if canids were likely to experience evolutionary rescue, which could allow some species to adapt to climate change. Our results suggest that global warming will cause most species to lose or maintain their ranges, while a few will have the potential to benefit from future conditions and considerably expand their geographic distributions. Some canids have the potential to experience evolutionary rescue, but Atelocynus microtis and Chrysocyon brachyurus are two concerning cases that do not show this capacity to adapt given the current pace of climate change. We also reveal that most Canidae hotspot regions are outside protected areas, which may be useful for the identification of key areas for conservation.