Global mismatches between crop distributions and climate suitability

Mahaut, L.; Pironon, S.; Barnagaud, J. Y.; Bretagnolle, F.; Khoury, C. K.; Mehrabi, Z.; Milla, R.; Phillips, C.; Renard, D.; Rieseberg, L. H.; Violle, C.

doi:10.1101/2021.04.15.439966

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2021.04.15.439966

Global mismatches between crop distributions and climate suitability

Mahaut, L.·Pironon, S.·Barnagaud, J. Y.·Bretagnolle, F.·Khoury, C. K.·Mehrabi, Z.·Milla, R.·Phillips, C.·Renard, D.·Rieseberg, L. H.·Violle, C.

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Abstract

The selection of new crops and the migration of crop areas are two key strategies for agriculture to cope with climate change and ensure food security in the coming years. However, both rely on the assumption that climate is a major factor determining crop distributions worldwide. Here, we show that the current global distributions of nine of twelve major crops strongly diverge from their modelled climatic suitability for yields, after controlling for technology, agricultural management and soil conditions. Comparing the climatic niches of crops and their wild progenitors reveals that climate suitability is higher outside the native climatic range for six of these nine crops while all of them are farmed predominantly in their native ranges. These results show that agricultural strategies coping with climate change will be unsuccessful unless they fully consider the social, cultural, and ecological factors underpinning crop distributions.

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Mahaut, L., Pironon, S., Barnagaud, J. Y., Bretagnolle, F., Khoury, C. K., Mehrabi, Z., Milla, R., Phillips, C., Renard, D., Rieseberg, L. H., Violle, C.. 2021-04-15. Global mismatches between crop distributions and climate suitability. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.15.439966

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