Assessing the ecological niche and invasion potential of the Asian giant hornet

Abstract

The Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) is the worlds largest hornet. It is native to East Asia, but was recently detected in British Columbia, Canada, and Washington State, USA. Vespa mandarinia are an invasion concern due to their potential to negatively affect honey bees and act as a human nuisance pest. Here, we assessed effects of bioclimatic variables on V. mandarinia and used ensemble forecasts to predict habitat suitability for this pest globally. We also simulated potential dispersal of V. mandarinia in western North America. We show that V. mandarinia are most likely to invade areas with warm to cool annual mean temperature but high precipitation, and could be particularly problematic in regions with these conditions and high levels of human activity. We identified regions with suitable habitat on all six continents except Antarctica. The realized niche of introduced populations in the USA and Canada was small compared to native populations, implying high potential for invasive spread into new regions. Dispersal simulations showed that without containment, V. mandarinia could rapidly spread into southern Washington and Oregon, USA and northward through British Columbia, Canada. Given its potential negative impacts, and the capacity for spread within northwestern North America and worldwide, strong mitigation efforts are needed to prevent further spread of V. mandarinia.