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bioRxiv · 10.1101/168112

Epidemic Potential for Human Infection with Influenza A (H7N9) Virus in China through Web Search Behaviors: A Data-Driven Study

Teng, Y.·Bi, D.·Guo, X.·Feng, D.·Tong, Y.
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Abstract

Since the beginning of September 2016, a steep upsurge of the human cases of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus has been reported in China, which are alarming public concern for the pandemic potential of the H7N9 virus. In this study, we collected the data from H7N9 epidemics and H7N9-related Baidu Search Index (BSI) in China between September 2013 and June 2017. And we observed a strong correlation between the numbers of Influenza A (H7N9) cases and H7N9-related BSI in Guangdong province and Shanghai municipality (p<0.001). Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were constructed for the dynamic estimation of seasonal H7N9 outbreaks in 2016-2017 and the online search data acted as an external regressor with the historical H7N9 epidemic data in the forecasting model to improve the quality of predictions. Predictions by the models closely matched the actual numbers of reported cases during current H7N9 epidemic season. Especially, the estimated numbers of reported cases sharply increased to reach 49.88 (95% CI: 0-194.05) in Guangdong and 9.05 (95% CI: 0-37.43) in Shanghai from December 2016 to June 2017. Moreover, this accessible and flexible dynamic forecast model could be used in the monitoring of H7N9 virus to provide advanced warning of future emerging infection diseases.\n\nAuthor summaryAs the availability and popularity of the internet has greatly increased in recent years, an increasing number of cyber users, including patients and their family members, search online for health information on personal computers (PCs) and mobile phones (MPs) before seeking medical attention, making it possible to investigate the influenza prevalence by monitoring changes in frequencies of uses of particular search terms. In this study, we collected the data from H7N9 epidemics and H7N9-related Baidu Search Index (BSI) in China between September 2013 and June 2017. And then, we showed a strong correlation between the numbers of Influenza A (H7N9) cases and H7N9-related BSI in Guangdong province and Shanghai municipality (p<0.001). Furthermore, we reconstructed an improved dynamic forecasting method for outbreaks of H7N9 influenza using Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict future patterns of H7N9 transmission and the online search data acted as an external regressor with the historical H7N9 epidemic data in the forecasting model to improve the quality of predictions. Our results suggest that data from the Baidu search engine, combed with data from a traditional disease surveillance system, may be considered for early detection of H7N9 influenza outbreaks in mainland China.

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Teng, Y., Bi, D., Guo, X., Feng, D., Tong, Y.. 2017-08-27. Epidemic Potential for Human Infection with Influenza A (H7N9) Virus in China through Web Search Behaviors: A Data-Driven Study. https://doi.org/10.1101/168112

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