Biology subjects

Wikelski, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Wikelski, M..

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. During the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we instrumentally observed the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct-Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan-Apr 2017). Relating 5304 (in 2016) and 12948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 [≤] M [≤] 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a stable, but not during their time on a pasture. We detect these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1-20hrs) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous instrumental monitoring of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could allow for short-term earthquake forecasting. One Sentence SummaryA collective of domestic animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1-20h) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5-28km).

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2019

Causes and consequences of facultative sea crossing in a soaring migrant

O_LIStudying the causes and consequences of route selection in animal migration is important for understanding the evolution of migratory systems and how they may be affected by environmental factors at various spatial and temporal scales. One key decision during migration is whether to cross "high transport cost" areas, or to circumvent them. Soaring birds may face this choice when encountering waterbodies where convective updrafts are weak or scarce. Crossing these waterbodies requires flying using energetically costly flapping flight, while circumventing them over land permits energetically cheap soaring. C_LIO_LIWe tested how several atmospheric factors (e.g., wind, thermal uplift) and geographic, seasonal and state-related factors (sex and age) affected route selection in migrating white storks (Ciconia ciconia). We used 196 GPS tracks of 70 individuals either crossing or circumventing the north-easternmost section of the Mediterranean Sea, over Iskenderun Bay in southern Turkey. C_LIO_LIWe found that westward and southward winds promoted a cross-bay journey in spring and autumn, respectively, acting as tailwinds. Also, overall weaker winds promoted a sea crossing in spring. Sea crossing was associated with flapping flight and higher values of Overall Dynamic Body Acceleration (ODBA) and resulted in higher ground speed than travel over land. C_LIO_LIThe combined environmental conditions and the effects of route selection on movement-related energy costs and speed were likely responsible for an increase in the time spent flying and distance travelled of migrating storks that decided to cross the bay during spring. Notably, daily travel distances of spring migrants crossing the bay were 60 kilometres longer than those of land-detouring birds, allowing them to reach their destination faster but likely incurring a higher energetic flight cost. No such benefit was found during autumn. C_LIO_LIOur findings confirm that atmospheric conditions can strongly affect bird route selection. Consequently, migration timing, speed and movement-related energy expenditure differed considerably between the two migratory seasons and the two route choices, highlighting a time-energy trade-off in the migration of white storks. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Integrating animal movement with habitat suitability for estimating dynamic landscape connectivity

ContextHigh-resolution animal movement data are becoming increasingly available, yet having a multitude of empirical trajectories alone does not allow us to easily predict animal movement. To answer ecological and evolutionary questions at a population level, quantitative estimates of a species potential to link patches or populations are of importance.\n\nObjectivesWe introduce an approach that combines movement-informed simulated trajectories with an environment-informed estimate of the trajectories plausibility to derive connectivity. Using the example of bar-headed geese we estimated migratory connectivity at a landscape level throughout the annual cycle in their native range.\n\nMethodsWe used tracking data of bar-headed geese to develop a multi-state movement model and to estimate temporally explicit habitat suitability within the species range. We simulated migratory movements between range fragments, and calculated a measure we called route viability. The results are compared to expectations derived from published literature.\n\nResultsSimulated migrations matched empirical trajectories in key characteristics such as stopover duration. The viability of the simulated trajectories was similar to that of the empirical trajectories. We found that, overall, the migratory connectivity was higher within the breeding than in wintering areas, corresponding to previous findings for this species.\n\nConclusionsWe show how empirical tracking data and environmental information can be fused for meaningful predictions of animal movements throughout the year and even outside the spatial range of the available data. Beyond predicting connectivity, our framework will prove useful for modelling ecological processes facilitated by animal movement, such as seed dispersal or disease ecology.

ecology↗