Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring

Wikelski, M.; Mueller, U.; Scocco, P.; Catorci, A.; Desinov, L. V.; Belyaev, M.; Keim, D. A.; Pohlmeier, W.; Fechteler, G.; Mai, P. M.

doi:10.1101/2020.01.19.911313

bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.01.19.911313

Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring

Wikelski, M.·Mueller, U.·Scocco, P.·Catorci, A.·Desinov, L. V.·Belyaev, M.·Keim, D. A.·Pohlmeier, W.·Fechteler, G.·Mai, P. M.

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Abstract

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. During the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we instrumentally observed the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct-Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan-Apr 2017). Relating 5304 (in 2016) and 12948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 [≤] M [≤] 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a stable, but not during their time on a pasture. We detect these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1-20hrs) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous instrumental monitoring of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could allow for short-term earthquake forecasting. One Sentence SummaryA collective of domestic animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1-20h) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5-28km).

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Wikelski, M., Mueller, U., Scocco, P., Catorci, A., Desinov, L. V., Belyaev, M., Keim, D. A., Pohlmeier, W., Fechteler, G., Mai, P. M.. 2020-01-19. Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.19.911313

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