Vasquez, V. N. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2024

GeneDrive.jl: A decision tool to optimize vector-borne disease management planning under climate change

We introduce GeneDrive.jl, the first software package to optimize operational planning for the biological control of mosquito disease vectors. Mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting a significant percentage of the global infectious disease burden, a problem being exacerbated as climate change shifts the range and alters the abundance of these thermo-sensitive arthropods. But the efficacy and cost of vector control varies according to species, region, and intervention type. Meanwhile, existing computational tools lack the ability to explicitly tailor interventions for local health objectives and resource limitations. GeneDrive.jl addresses this equity and efficiency gap, which is of particular concern for the under- resourced nations that both bear the highest mosquito-borne disease burden and are subject to disproportionate climate impacts. The software customizes management strategies according to specific health goals and financial constraints, and can also be used to characterize risk by analyzing the temperature-responsive dynamics of wildtype vectors. GeneDrive.jl is designed to accommodate two important realities shaping the future of vector-borne disease: first, the genetic-based technologies that are defining a new era in control, and second, the uncertainty that increasingly variable and extreme temperatures bring for the climate-sensitive illnesses transmitted by mosquitoes. The software provides a build once, solve twice feature wherein users may define a health management problem, optimize it, and subsequently subject outcomes to scenario-based testing within a single coherent platform. We demonstrate the policy relevance of this scalable open-source framework via case studies featuring Aedes aegypti in the dengue-endemic region of Nha Trang, Vietnam. Author SummaryWe present a software package designed to optimize and simulate genetic biocontrol, a broad suite of technologies that alter the genotype or phenotype of mosquito disease vectors by suppressing or wholly replacing vector populations. Our GeneDrive.jl library responds to a need for the fast, temperature- sensitive, low-cost exploration of public health management options, particularly in under-resourced global regions most at risk for current and future mosquito-borne illness under climate change. It is the first software to offer mathematical methods that optimally tune intervention strategies to local human health goals and resource limitations. Additional mathematical methods within GeneDrive.jl permit the simulation of optimized results given alternative parameterizations, furnishing a unique and scientifically important capacity to subject outcomes to scenario-based testing. The software is constructed to evolve along with the latest science, prioritizing composability{perp} and modularity{perp} to enable iterative updates without requiring a full rewrite. GeneDrive.jl addresses the confluence of two rapidly changing realities - existing and projected climate warming, together with advancements in biocontrol technology - when the state of the art, namely past field work and expert opinion, are no longer reliable guides for future planning. This paper is intended for an interdisciplinary audience and includes a Glossary to facilitate reading (see{perp}).

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

wMel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

Rising temperatures and increasing temperature variability are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne disease. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Laboratory and field observations show that the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress. Here, we examine whether and how climate warming may impact wMel-based replacement. We integrate empirical data on the temperature sensitivity of wMel bacteria into a mechanistic model of population dynamics for the dengue vector Aedes aegypti and use CMIP5 climate projections and historical temperature records from Cairns, Australia to simulate vector control interventions. We show that higher mean temperatures are predicted to lower wMel infection frequency and that extended heatwaves have the potential to reverse the public health benefits of this intervention. Sensitivity analysis probing the thermal limits of wMel replacement reveal that, under existing projections, operational adaptations would be required for heatwaves lasting longer than two weeks. We conclude that this technology is expected to be robust to both the increased mean temperatures and heatwaves associated with near-term climate change in temperate regions. However, more rapid warming or tropical and inland regions that presently feature hotter baselines may challenge these tested limits, requiring further research.

ecology↗