Biology subjects

Mordecai, E. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Mordecai, E. A..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Bird functional dispersion predicts dengue vector presence across tropical working landscapes in Costa Rica

Identifying reliable indicators of dengue vector habitat is critical for proactive surveillance and spatially targeted vector control. Bird communities are sensitive to habitat quality and landscape condition, and their functional diversity may track ecological conditions that support Aedes mosquito populations. We tested whether bird functional diversity predicts dengue vector presence across two working landscapes in Costa Rica, comparing bird-based predictors against landscape composition, vegetation structure, and plant diversity. Bird functional dispersion (FDis), the spread of species in multidimensional trait space, was the top-ranked predictor for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus larval presence and for adult Ae. aegypti, outperforming all other predictor classes. Probability of presence declined with increasing FDis, where functionally homogeneous bird communities, characteristic of disturbed landscapes, co-occur with higher vector presence, consistent with shared habitat filtering. Functional diversity estimations may offer a practical signal for identifying habitats at elevated dengue vector risk.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Species-specific susceptibility and low transmission of the historical Japanese encephalitis virus Nakayama strain in North American Culex mosquitoes

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an emerging mosquito-borne flavivirus with potential for geographic expansion, yet the risk of establishment in North America remains poorly characterized. We assessed vector competence of three North American Culex species (Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and Cx. tarsalis) for the JEV Nakayama strain, isolated from human brain in 1934 in Japan, across five constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, and 33{degrees}C) at 4, 7, and 14 days post-feeding, quantifying infection, dissemination, and transmission rates. Vector competence was low but non-zero across all species. Cx. pipiens showed higher infection rates than the other species, whereas Cx. quinquefasciatus and Cx. tarsalis were minimally susceptible under these experimental conditions. Temperature had limited effects on infection and no detectable effects on dissemination or transmission. These findings suggest limited transmission potential of JEV Nakayama in North America, with Cx. pipiens as a relatively permissive vector.

molecular biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Mosquito infection-mediated trait variation alters temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus

Rising global temperatures are reshaping species interactions and the ecological conditions governing vector-borne disease transmission. Although previous studies show that West Nile virus (WNV) infection alters mosquito longevity, fecundity, blood-feeding behavior, and the thermal performance of these traits, trait-based R models largely rely on data from uninfected mosquitoes, implicitly assuming homogeneous vector populations. This overlooks infection-induced trait variation that may influence transmission dynamics. Here, we examined how temperature, infection status, and viral strain interact to shape transmission potential for WNV in Culex pipiens. Life-history traits of WNV-exposed and unexposed mosquitoes were measured across constant temperatures ranging from 10{degrees}C to 33{degrees}C, as well as under a fluctuating temperature regime of 25{degrees}C {+/-} 5{degrees}C. These data were used to generate thermal performance curves and estimate temperature-dependent relative R across treatments. Infection altered the thermal performance of mosquito life-history traits, vector competence, and overall transmission potential. We also found evidence for a bimodal effect of temperature on vector competence, potentially driven by tradeoffs between viral replication and mosquito immune responses. Incorporating infection-sensitive traits into relative R calculations reduced estimated transmission intensity across much of the thermal range without shifting thermal optima or limits, suggesting that current models may overestimate transmission.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation shape the distribution of Aedes sierrensis in North America

Understanding the ecological determinants of species ranges is a central goal of ecology. Novel tools like global datasets and machine learning models allow us to describe species ranges with increasing scope and accuracy, and to develop and test ecological hypotheses about their determinants. Here, I focus on the widespread nuisance mosquito and dog heartworm vector Aedes sierrensis, a tree hole-breeding mosquito that is widespread and abundance within its native range in western North America, and develop species distribution models (SDMs) to characterize the species range and its environmental determinants. I find that the species range is highly predictable from long-term average bioclimatic variables. Temperature and precipitation were the primary determinants: suitability was highest at wet-season average temperatures of 0 - 10{degrees}C, minimum temperatures of -5 - 5{degrees}C, and summer temperatures of 8 - 22{degrees}C in environments with adequate seasonal rainfall concentrated in the winter. After accounting for climate, land cover variables showed minimal importance for prediction, but suitability was higher in forests and outside of urban areas. The results are consistent with ecological knowledge of the Ae. sierrensis life cycle from field observations and previous laboratory experiments, suggesting that individual physiological constraints scale up to determine species distributional limits.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Persistent, Multi-Species Outbreaks and Long-Range Transmissions of a Measles-Like Virus

Canine distemper--a measles-like disease with high mortality and presently without a cure--poses a major threat to wild and domestic carnivores globally. Domestic dogs are generally considered to be the main reservoir and long-range transmitter of the disease, but the role of wildlife is likely underestimated and the long-term persistence of CDV in wildlife has never been assessed. We sequenced canine distemper virus (CDV) full and partial genomes that were sampled over a decade (2012-2021) from Arctic foxes and other canids in Alaska and Yellowstone, and compiled a dataset of all published CDV genomes sampled across 32 species globally. We show the first ever evidence of persistence of CDV in wildlife (for almost a decade) with explosive transmission dynamics crossing host species barriers. Strains sampled from the Arctic for the first time connect North America to Eurasia, and are distinct from the Yellowstone strain and other known North American lineages. This suggests that separate wildlife outbreaks occur concurrently in North America, with possible introductions from Eurasia. The long-term persistence, long-range movement and explosive spread of this devastating panzootic virus that we document within wildlife is alarming and highlights the need for increased monitoring efforts to better protect wildlife populations globally.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2026

Heatwaves rescue a mosquito host from parasitism across a large geographic gradient

The impacts of increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves on parasitism are an important frontier for understanding disease risk under climate change. These impacts are complex because parasitism arises from multiple interacting host and parasite traits that can vary in thermal sensitivity and among populations adapted to different temperature regimes. Here, we used a lab microcosm experiment to investigate the effects of heatwaves occurring during two different phases of a winter-adapted mosquito host - ciliate parasite interaction, for six pairs of sympatric host and parasite populations sourced from two geographic regions with differing histories of winter heat. We found that because heatwaves allowed mosquito larvae to evade infection, they reduced parasitism and increased survival. An early heatwave during initial parasite attack had stronger effects than a later heatwave occurring after infections had established. We did not find evidence of local adaptation to heatwaves: impacts were consistent regardless of population, and were mechanistically predictable from previously measured thermal performance curves that described lower infection and stronger host defenses at warm constant temperatures. The results suggest that increasingly frequent heatwaves may accelerate geographic shifts in parasitism, and demonstrate how fundamental host - parasite thermal biology links to the impacts of extreme temperature events.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Water availability has stronger effects on West Nile virus dynamics in water-limited regions

West Nile virus dynamics are shaped by hydrological conditions that influence mosquito habitat and pathogen transmission, but identifying causal relationships is difficult in managed landscapes where irrigation decouples local water conditions from precipitation, complicating climate-disease inference. We address this challenge using a 21-year panel of more than 19 million Culex tarsalis mosquitoes from Californias Central Valley, applying fixed-effects panel models to estimate how surface water availability affects mosquito abundance and infection rates while accounting for spatial differences and shared temporal variation. We find that wetter conditions lead to higher mosquito abundance but slightly lower infection rates, suggesting divergent responses of vector population growth and pathogen amplification. These patterns are consistent across multiple hydrological measures, including drought indices, soil moisture, surface water, and evapotranspiration. Effects are strongest in water-limited regions, where hydrological variability is greatest and buffering by snowmelt-fed river systems is weakest. Overall, hydrological conditions exert contrasting effects on key components of West Nile virus dynamics, and these relationships are strongly conditioned by human water management. Our results highlight how irrigation decouples local hydrological conditions from broader climatic variability, underscoring the need for fine-scale hydrological data and panel-based approaches to identify drivers of disease dynamics in human managed landscapes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

The impact of climate change on transmission season length: West Nile virus as a case study

BackgroundClimate change is accelerating the spread of temperature-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus (WNV), the most widespread mosquito-borne disease in the United States, with 2,400 reported cases in 2024. In New York State (NYS), where WNV first emerged in the U.S., mean temperatures have increased by 1.4{degrees}C since the early 1900s. Although temperature is a well-established driver of WNV transmission, its effect on transmission season length remains poorly quantified. This study examines whether WNV transmission seasons have lengthened in NYS and whether these changes are associated with increased disease risk, shifts in seasonal timing, and anthropogenic climate change. MethodsWe integrated daily county-level observational data from 1999-2024, including temperature, mosquito surveillance, and human case data, with climate model simulations spanning 1850-2024 to assess trends in transmission season length. FindingsBased on observed temperature suitability, the WNV transmission season in NYS has lengthened by an average of 20 days over the past 25 years, beginning 3.8 days earlier and ending 16.3 days later. Longer transmission seasons are positively associated with higher WNV prevalence in both mosquito vectors and humans. While such changes could occur in the absence of global warming, climate model analyses indicate that the observed increase in season length is 6.4 times more likely under historical climate forcing since 1900 than under pre-industrial conditions. InterpretationThese findings demonstrate that climate change is reshaping the phenology and burden of WNV transmission. FundingSupported by NIH, NSF, Stanford University, and the Fogarty International Center. Research in ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe searched Google Scholar for publications from 1999 to 2024 using the term "West Nile virus and season length," yielding 18,200 results. Previous studies focused on how climatic factors affect transmission and its seasonality in the United States, but none assessed how climate change influences transmission season duration. We analyzed over two decades of data to link extended WNV transmission seasons with increased vector and human prevalence. Additionally, we evaluated the causal role of climate warming using simulated climate data and counterfactual analyses. Added value of this studyUsing daily temperature and WNV case data from 1999- 2024, we found that the WNV transmission season in NYS has lengthened by an average of 20 days. The season now begins 3.8 days earlier and ends 16.3 days later. Longer seasons were associated with higher prevalence in mosquitoes and humans. Climate model simulations indicate that human-driven greenhouse gas emissions have significantly extended the WNV season, making observed trends in season length, onset, and conclusion 6, 2, and 16 times more likely, with implications for mosquito infection and human disease risk. Implications of all available evidenceOur findings suggest that climate change is lengthening WNV transmission seasons, a phenomenon likely relevant to other temperature-sensitive vector-borne diseases. As warming continues, extended transmission seasons may amplify risks for WNV and other vector-borne diseases, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive public health surveillance and intervention strategies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

A systematic review of climate-change driven range shifts in mosquito vectors

As global temperatures rise, concerns about shifting mosquito ranges--and accompanying changes in the transmission of malaria, dengue, and other diseases--are mounting. However, systematic evidence for climate-driven changes in mosquito ranges remains limited. We conducted a systematic review of studies documenting expansions or contractions in medically important mosquito species. In total, 178 studies on six continents identified range expansions in 118 mosquito species. While over a third of these studies cited warming as a driver, fewer than 10% performed statistical tests of the role of climate. Instead, most expansions were linked to human-aided dispersal (e.g., trade, travel), land-use changes, and urbanization. Although several studies reported poleward or upward expansions consistent with climate warming, none demonstrated warm-edge contractions driven by rising temperatures, which are theoretically predicted in some settings. Rather than expanding into newly suitable areas, many expansions appear to be filling preexisting thermally suitable habitats. Our findings highlight the need for long-term mosquito monitoring, rigorous climate-attribution methods, and better documentation of confounding factors like land-use change and vector control efforts to disentangle climate-driven changes from other anthropogenic factors.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Temperature influences West Nile virus evolution and adaptation

Abstract bodyWest Nile virus (WNV), the most common mosquito-borne disease in the continental U.S., is vectored by Culex spp. mosquitoes. Since its introduction to New York State (NYS) in 1999, WNV has become endemic. NYS temperatures have risen by 0.14{degrees}C per decade since 1900, with larger increases linked to higher WNV transmission. Using surveillance and sequencing data, we find a significant correlation between rising temperatures, increased WNV genetic diversity, and higher prevalence. Given the experimentally demonstrated role of temperature influencing WNV fitness, we hypothesized that contemporary strains should exhibit greater fitness in mosquitoes at higher temperatures compared to historic strains. To test this, we analyzed genetically distinct WNV strains from mosquitoes collected during recent warm summers (2017 and 2018) and cooler historic summers (2003 and 2004). Assessing Culex pipiens vector competence and calculating the relative R at 20{degrees}C, 24{degrees}C, and 28{degrees}C, we found that contemporary strains exhibit higher transmission potential at increased temperatures. Our results show that contemporary WNV strains possess greater phenotypic and genotypic diversity, facilitating the emergence of strains with enhanced transmission potential in a warming climate.

molecular biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Nonlinear effects of temperature on mosquito parasite infection across a large geographic climate gradient

Temperature drives ectothermic host - parasite interactions, making them particularly sensitive to climatic variation and change. To isolate the role of temperature, lab-based studies are increasingly used to assess and forecast disease risk under current and future climate conditions. However, in the field, the effects of temperature on parasitism may be mediated by other sources of variation, including local adaptation of hosts and parasites to one another and to the environment. To address the key knowledge gaps of how temperature influences host - parasite interactions and whether thermal responses measured in controlled experiments capture infection across temperature gradients in nature, we paired an extensive field survey of parasitism--by the ciliate Lambornella clarki on its tree hole mosquito host, Aedes sierrensis--with laboratory experiments describing parasitism thermal performance curves (TPCs) for six host populations from varying climates. We also investigated the mechanisms underlying the thermal biology of the host - parasite interaction by separately measuring TPCs for infection, host immunity, and parasite growth rates. Along the west coast of North America, across an 1100 km climate gradient spanning 12{degrees}C mean rainy season temperature variation, we found that parasitism peaked at intermediately cold temperatures of 9.2 - 10{degrees}C, and was consistent both between field seasons and with the lab experiment results. In the laboratory experiments, infection thermal responses were consistently nonlinear and peaked at 8.4 - 10{degrees}C, showing no evidence of host intraspecific variation in temperature sensitivity to parasitism. Importantly, parasitism peaked at temperatures below the thermal optimum for free-living L. clarki due to the balance of temperature effects on parasite growth and reproduction against the strength of the host melanization immune response. The results suggest that nonlinear responses to temperature drive parasitism in nature, and that simple lab and field studies can accurately capture the thermal biology of multilayered host - parasite interactions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

GeneDrive.jl: A decision tool to optimize vector-borne disease management planning under climate change

We introduce GeneDrive.jl, the first software package to optimize operational planning for the biological control of mosquito disease vectors. Mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting a significant percentage of the global infectious disease burden, a problem being exacerbated as climate change shifts the range and alters the abundance of these thermo-sensitive arthropods. But the efficacy and cost of vector control varies according to species, region, and intervention type. Meanwhile, existing computational tools lack the ability to explicitly tailor interventions for local health objectives and resource limitations. GeneDrive.jl addresses this equity and efficiency gap, which is of particular concern for the under- resourced nations that both bear the highest mosquito-borne disease burden and are subject to disproportionate climate impacts. The software customizes management strategies according to specific health goals and financial constraints, and can also be used to characterize risk by analyzing the temperature-responsive dynamics of wildtype vectors. GeneDrive.jl is designed to accommodate two important realities shaping the future of vector-borne disease: first, the genetic-based technologies that are defining a new era in control, and second, the uncertainty that increasingly variable and extreme temperatures bring for the climate-sensitive illnesses transmitted by mosquitoes. The software provides a build once, solve twice feature wherein users may define a health management problem, optimize it, and subsequently subject outcomes to scenario-based testing within a single coherent platform. We demonstrate the policy relevance of this scalable open-source framework via case studies featuring Aedes aegypti in the dengue-endemic region of Nha Trang, Vietnam. Author SummaryWe present a software package designed to optimize and simulate genetic biocontrol, a broad suite of technologies that alter the genotype or phenotype of mosquito disease vectors by suppressing or wholly replacing vector populations. Our GeneDrive.jl library responds to a need for the fast, temperature- sensitive, low-cost exploration of public health management options, particularly in under-resourced global regions most at risk for current and future mosquito-borne illness under climate change. It is the first software to offer mathematical methods that optimally tune intervention strategies to local human health goals and resource limitations. Additional mathematical methods within GeneDrive.jl permit the simulation of optimized results given alternative parameterizations, furnishing a unique and scientifically important capacity to subject outcomes to scenario-based testing. The software is constructed to evolve along with the latest science, prioritizing composability{perp} and modularity{perp} to enable iterative updates without requiring a full rewrite. GeneDrive.jl addresses the confluence of two rapidly changing realities - existing and projected climate warming, together with advancements in biocontrol technology - when the state of the art, namely past field work and expert opinion, are no longer reliable guides for future planning. This paper is intended for an interdisciplinary audience and includes a Glossary to facilitate reading (see{perp}).

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, facilitating expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis, a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in acute heat tolerance, which phenotypically trades off with tolerance to prolonged heat exposure. A simple evolutionary model based on our data shows that the estimated maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance typically exceeds that of projected climate warming under idealized conditions. Our findings indicate that natural mosquito populations may have the potential to track projected warming via genetic adaptation. Prior climate-based projections may thus underestimate the range of mosquito and mosquito-borne disease distributions under future climate conditions. Significance StatementGlobal change may have profound impacts on the distribution of mosquito-borne diseases, which collectively cause nearly one million deaths each year. Accurately predicting these impacts is critical for disease control preparedness, and will depend, in part, on whether mosquitoes can adapt to warming--a key open question. Using experimental and genomic data from a relative of major vector species that already experiences a wide thermal gradient, we find that natural mosquito populations have high levels of genetically-based variation in heat tolerance that could enable adaptation on pace with warming. Incorporating the potential for adaptive responses may therefore be necessary for accurate predictions of mosquito-borne disease distributions under warming, which is critical for preparing mosquito control interventions.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

A flexible model for thermal performance curves

Temperature responses of many biological traits--including population growth, survival, and development--are described by thermal performance curves (TPCs) with phenomenological models like the Briere function or mechanistic models related to chemical kinetics. Existing TPC models are either simple but inflexible in shape, or flexible yet difficult to interpret in biological terms. Here we present flexTPC: a model that is parameterized exclusively in terms of biologically interpretable quantities, including the thermal minimum, optimum, and maximum, and the maximum trait value. FlexTPC can describe unimodal temperature responses of any skewness and thermal breadth, enabling direct comparisons across populations, traits, or taxa with a single model. We apply flexTPC to various microbial and entomological datasets, compare results with the Briere model, and find that flexTPC often has better predictive performance. The interpretability of flexTPC makes it ideal for modeling how thermal responses change with ecological stressors or evolve over time.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Plasticity in mosquito size and thermal tolerance across a latitudinal climate gradient

Variation in heat tolerance among populations can determine whether a species is able to cope with ongoing climate change. Such variation may be especially important for ectotherms whose body temperatures, and consequently, physiological processes, are regulated by external conditions. Additionally, differences in body size are often associated with latitudinal clines, thought to be driven by climate gradients. While studies have begun to explore variation in body size and heat tolerance within species, our understanding of these patterns across large spatial scales, particularly regarding the roles of plasticity and genetic differences, remains incomplete. Here, we examine body size, as measured by wing length, and thermal tolerance, as measured by the time to immobilization at high temperatures ("thermal knockdown"), in populations of the mosquito Aedes sierrensis collected from across a large latitudinal climate gradient spanning 1300 km (34-44 {degrees}N). We find that mosquitoes collected from lower latitudes and warmer climates were more tolerant of high temperatures than those collected from higher latitudes and colder climates. Moreover, body size increased with latitude and decreased with temperature, a pattern consistent with James rule, which appears to be a result of plasticity rather than genetic variation. Our results suggest that warmer environments produce smaller and more thermally tolerant populations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

How much warming can mosquito vectors tolerate?

Climate warming is expected to substantially impact the global landscape of mosquito-borne disease, but these impacts will vary across disease systems and regions. Understanding which diseases, and where within their distributions, these impacts are most likely to occur is critical for preparing public health interventions. While research has centered on potential warming-driven expansions in vector transmission, less is known about the potential for vectors to experience warming-driven stress or even local extirpations. In conservation biology, species risk from climate warming is often quantified through vulnerability indices such as thermal safety margins - the difference between an organisms upper thermal limit and its habitat temperature. Here, we estimated thermal safety margins for 8 mosquito species (including Aedes aegypti and Anopheles gambiae) that are the vectors of malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile and other major arboviruses, across their known ranges to investigate which mosquitoes and regions are most and least vulnerable to climate warming. We find that several of the most globally important mosquito vector species have positive thermal safety margins across the majority of their ranges when realistic assumptions of mosquito behavioral thermoregulation are incorporated. On average, the lowest climate vulnerability, in terms of both the magnitude and duration of thermal safety, was just south of the equator and at northern temperate range edges, and the highest climate vulnerability was in the subtropics. Mosquitoes living in regions largely comprised of desert and xeric shrubland biomes, including the Middle East, the western Sahara, and southeastern Australia have the highest climate vulnerability across vector species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Local tree cover predicts mosquito species richness and disease vector presence in a tropical countryside landscape

ContextLand use change and deforestation drive both biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease transmission in tropical countrysides. For mosquito communities that can include disease vectors, forest loss has been linked to reduced biodiversity and increased vector presence. The spatial scales at which land use and tree cover shape mosquito communities present a knowledge gap relevant to both biodiversity and public health. ObjectivesWe investigated the responses of mosquito species richness and Aedes albopictus disease vector presence to land use and to tree cover surrounding survey sites at different spatial scales. We also investigated species compositional turnover across land uses and along environmental gradients. MethodsWe paired a field survey of mosquito communities in agricultural, residential, and forested lands in rural southern Costa Rica with remotely sensed tree cover data. We compared mosquito richness and vector presence responses to tree cover measured across scales from 30m to 1000m, and across land uses. We analyzed compositional turnover between land uses and along environmental gradients of tree cover, temperature, elevation, and geographic distance. ResultsTree cover was both positively correlated with mosquito species richness and negatively correlated with the presence of the common invasive dengue vector Ae. albopictus at small spatial scales of 90 - 250m. Land use predicted community composition and Ae. albopictus presence. ConclusionsThe results suggest that local tree cover preservation and expansion can support mosquito species richness and reduce disease vector presence. The identified spatial range at which tree cover shapes mosquito communities can inform the development of land management practices to protect both ecosystem and public health.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches

Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically-plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.90). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming.

ecology↗