bioRxiv2025
ImportanceBrain maturation varies between individuals, particularly during dynamic developmental periods like adolescence. Directly assessing differences in longitudinal trajectories can reveal deviations from normative patterns. ObjectiveWe present novel conditional-longitudinal normative models that characterize variability in brain maturation. We utilize these models to examine whether differences in longitudinal trajectories are associated with birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA), and longitudinal psychopathology derived from behavioral assessments. DesignCross-sectional and conditional-longitudinal normative models were developed for brain volumes derived from the first two neuroimaging timepoints from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. Conditional-longitudinal models index an individuals expected brain volume at follow-up conditioned on their baseline measurement. Models were fit with split-half cross-validation on demographically matched samples. SettingThe ABCD Study is a multi-site, population-based study ParticipantsParticipants were excluded based on imaging quality flags and missing data, leaving 10,830 at baseline and 7,262 at follow-up. ExposuresBW and GA were derived from parent-report questionnaires. General psychopathology scores were calculated using a bifactor model. Main Outcomes and MeasuresWe calculated cross-sectional and conditional-longitudinal centiles, respectively quantifying individual deviations in size and change between timepoints. Sensitivity analyses included covariates for parental income and education as well as current weight and height. ResultsThe sample was 10,830 at baseline (48.2% F,age 9-10y) and 7,262 at follow-up (46.6% F,age 11-13y). Conditional-longitudinal centiles were sensitive to individual differences in brain change between timepoints. Lower BW was associated with lower conditional-longitudinal centiles, suggesting larger decreases in brain volumes over time (27 regions pfdr<0.05, {beta}max=0.08). Lower conditional-longitudinal centiles were associated with greater increases in psychopathology scores, suggesting with increased psychopathology brain volumes show greater decrease (37 regions pfdr<0.05, {beta}max=0.06). Notably, changes in psychopathology were not related to brain size at either timepoint, indexed by cross-sectional centiles. Conclusions and RelevanceModels that capture individual-level deviations from expected growth trajectories, rather than static positions on a growth curve, are particularly informative for assessing developmental change. Novel conditional-longitudinal models address this gap in lifespan brain imaging. Using this framework, we demonstrate robust associations between individual trajectory deviations, perinatal adversity, and longitudinally assessed mental health symptoms. Condition-longitudinal models hold promise for applications across psychiatric neuroscience, from development to aging. Key Points QuestionHow do differences in brain maturation trajectories, quantified by novel conditional-longitudinal models, relate to perinatal factors and mental health in adolescence? FindingsIn this longitudinal analysis of neuroimaging data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, conditional-longitudinal normative models revealed that trajectories of brain maturation in adolescence are associated with birth weight, and with longitudinal changes in mental health. MeaningConditional longitudinal models detect inter-individual variability in brain maturation, which is related to both perinatal factors and concurrent changes in psychopathology.