High regeneration-associated stress defines a distinct HCC subgroup with therapeutically exploitable vulnerabilities
Background: To date, no precision oncology approach has been established for HCC. Despite the diverse underlying causes, HCC development exhibits a uniform pathophysiology characterised by chronic hyper-proliferation, resulting from hepatocyte apoptosis and compensatory liver regeneration. This chronic hyper-proliferative pressure, termed regeneration stress, drives genomic instability during HCC onset, yet its therapeutic potential remains poorly explored. This study aimed to identify targetable vulnerabilities tied to regeneration stress and establish clinically applicable markers for treatment stratification. Methods: Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was applied on external bulk RNA-seq datasets to define a LIVer REgeneration Stress Signature (LIVRESS). The signature was functionally validated using HCC patient-derived organoids (HCC-Org), and vulnerabilities were mapped using mid-throughput drug screening, single-molecule and single-cell assays, and multi-omic integration. Results: High LIVRESS scores, characterised by enrichment in replication, mitotic and DNA damage repair pathways, identified a subset of HCC patients with aggressive disease and poorer survival across aetiologies. HCC-Org with high LIVRESS scores displayed exquisite sensitivity to multiple inhibitors of the checkpoint kinase ATR. Although HCC-Org models exhibited a baseline reduction in replication fork speed, sensitivity to ATR inhibitor (ATRi) was decoupled from replication fork dynamics and rather linked to intrinsic mitotic instability. ATR inhibition triggers mitotic failure and apoptosis in LIVRESSHigh HCC-Org. This killing effect was significantly potentiated by combining ATRi with PARPi or WEE1i. Multi-omic integration identified KPNA2 as a surrogate biomarker of ATRi sensitivity. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate that a subset of HCC-Org, characterised by high liver regeneration-associated stress, is vulnerable to ATRi-based therapies. By focusing on a comprehensive regenerative stress model, we establish a framework to stratify HCC patients and implement biomarker-driven, ATR-based therapies for HCC patients with advanced disease. Impact and implications: Regeneration stress is a key factor that drives genomic instability in HCC, providing a basis for the LIVRESS to identify patients dependent on ATR-mediated checkpoints. These findings reveal a conceptual shift for researchers and trialists: ATRi efficacy is decoupled from replication fork dynamics and instead leverages mitotic fragility. Practically, the LIVRESS and its IHC surrogate marker (KPNA2) offer a scalable roadmap for physicians to improve patient stratification in ATRi-based precision oncology trials. While requiring prospective validation, these results pave the way toward biomarker-driven therapies for advanced HCC.