bioRxiv2019
Brazil is a dengue-endemic country where all four dengue virus serotypes circulate and cause seasonal epidemics. Recently, chikungunya and Zika viruses were also introduced. In Rio de Janeiro city, the three diseases co-circulated for the first time in 2015-2016, resulting in what is known as the triple epidemic. In this study, we identify space-time clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, to understand the dynamics and interaction between these simultaneously circulating arboviruses in a densely populated and heterogeneous city.\n\nWe conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of weekly notified cases of the three diseases in Rio de Janeiro city (July 2015 - January 2017), georeferenced by 160 neighbourhoods, using Kulldorffs scan statistic with discrete Poisson probability models.\n\nThere were 26549, 13662, and 35905 notified cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively. The 17 dengue clusters and 15 Zika clusters were spread all over the city, while the 14 chikungunya clusters were more concentrated in the North and Downtown areas. Zika clusters persisted over a longer period of time. The multivariate scan statistic - used to analyse the three diseases simultaneously - detected 17 clusters, nine of which included all three diseases.\n\nThis is the first study exploring space-time clustering of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in an intraurban area. In general, the clusters did not coincide in time and space. This is probably the result of the competition between viruses for host resources, and of vector-control attitudes promoted by previous arbovirus outbreaks. The main affected area - the North region - is characterised by a combination of high population density and low human development index, highlighting the importance of targeting interventions in this area. Spatio-temporal scan statistics have the potential to direct interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner and should be considered as part of the municipal surveillance routine as a tool to optimize prevention strategies.\n\nAuthor summaryDengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades, but vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and were not sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015-2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistics analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously. In general, clusters were not detected in the same locations and time periods, possibly due to competition between viruses for host resources, and change in behaviour of the human population (e.g. intensified vector-control activities in response to increasing cases of a particular arbovirus). Neighbourhoods with high population density and social vulnerability should be considered as important targets for interventions. Particularly in the North region, where clusters of the three diseases exist and the first chikungunya cluster occurred. The use of space-time cluster detection can direct intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner.