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bioRxiv2018

Epidemiological impact of hepatitis B vaccination in Monastir Tunisia (2000-17)

Background: In 2016, the first global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis was endorsed with the goal of eliminating viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. In Tunisia, effective vaccines for hepatitis B (HBV) have been added to the expanded programme of immunization (EPI) since July 1995 for new borns. We expected to have a decreasing trend in the prevalence rate of reported HBV. Our study aimed to address the epidemiological profile of HBV, to assess trends by age and gender in Monastir governorate over a period of 18 years according to immunization status and to estimate the burden (years lived with disability YLDs) of this pathology. Methods: We performed a descriptive cross sectional study of declared HBV from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 defined as having positive serologic markers for HBs Ag. All declared patients were residents of Monastirs Governorate. EPI included two periods, the first between 1995 and 2006 following a three-dose schedule (3, 4, 9 months). The second PI cohort after 2006 following a three-dose schedule (0, 2, 6 months). Results: During 18 years, 1526 cases of HBV were declared in Monastir with a mean of 85 cases per year. We estimated a mean of 1699 declared cases per year of HBV in Tunisia. CPR was 16.85/100,000 inh being the higher in age group of 20-39 years and in men .ASR was 15.99/100,000 inh, being 35.5 in men and 8.69 in women. During the study period, declared cases among presumed immunized (PI) person against HBV were 32(2.0%). Among PI cases, 29 were from the first period and 3 were from the second. We established a negative trend over 18 years of hepatitis B. The age group of 20 to 39 was the most common with a sharply decline. Presumed not immunized (PNI) HBV cases are decreasing by years with a prediction of 35 cases in 2024. Reported HBV contributed to 1.26 YLDs per 100,000 inh. The highest rate of YLDs occurred at the age 20-39 (2.73 YLDs per 100,000 inh). During 18 years, YLDs were 114.45 in Monastir with a mean of 2293.65 YLDs of HBV in Tunisia. Conclusion, this study showed a law prevalence rate and a decreasing trend of HBV during 18 years showing an efficacy of immunization and confirming that the universal hepatitis B vaccination in Tunisia has resulted in progress towards the prevention and control of hepatitis B infection. These findings should be demonstrated in other Tunisian regions with a standardized serological profile.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2018

Tracking a Serial Killer: Integrating Phylogenetic Relationships, Epidemiology, and Geography for Two Invasive Meningococcal Disease Outbreaks

BackgroundWhile overall rates of meningococcal disease have been declining in the United States for the past several decades, New York City (NYC) has experienced two serogroup C meningococcal disease outbreaks in 2005-2006 and in 2010-2013. The outbreaks were centered within drug use and sexual networks, were difficult to control, and required vaccine campaigns.\n\nMethodsWhole Genome Sequencing (WGS) was used to analyze preserved meningococcal isolates collected before and during the two outbreaks. We integrated and analyzed epidemiologic, geographic, and genomic data to better understand transmission networks among patients. Betweenness centrality was used as a metric to understand the most important geographic nodes in the transmission networks. Comparative genomics was used to identify genes associated with the outbreaks.\n\nResultsNeisseria meningitidis serogroup C (ST11/ET-37) was responsible for both outbreaks with each outbreak having distinct phylogenetic clusters. WGS did identify some misclassifications of isolates that were more distant from the rest of the outbreak, as well as those that should have been included based on high genomic similarity. Genomes for the second outbreak were more similar than the first and no mutation was found to either be unique or specific to either outbreak lineage. Betweenness centrality as applied to transmission networks based on phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the outbreaks were transmitted within focal communities in NYC with few transmission events to other locations.\n\nConclusionsNeisseria meningitidis is an ever changing pathogen and comparative genomic analyses can help elucidate how it spreads geographically to facilitate targeted interventions to interrupt transmission.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Genotypic clustering does not imply recent tuberculosis transmission in a high prevalence setting: A genomic epidemiology study in Lima, Peru

BackgroundWhole genome sequencing (WGS) can elucidate Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission patterns but more data is needed to guide its use in high-burden settings. In a household-based transmissibility study of 4,000 TB patients in Lima, Peru, we identified a large MIRU-VNTR Mtb cluster with a range of resistance phenotypes and studied host and bacterial factors contributing to its spread.\n\nMethodsWGS was performed on 61 of 148 isolates in the cluster. We compared transmission link inference using epidemiological or genomic data with and without the inclusion of controversial variants, and estimated the dates of emergence of the cluster and antimicrobial drug resistance acquisition events by generating a time-calibrated phylogeny. We validated our findings in genomic data from an outbreak of 325 TB cases in London. Using a larger set of 12,032 public Mtb genomes, we determined bacterial factors characterizing this cluster and under positive selection in other Mtb lineages.\n\nFindingsFour isolates were distantly related and the remaining 57 isolates diverged ca. 1968 (95% HPD: 1945-1985). Isoniazid resistance arose once, whereas rifampicin resistance emerged subsequently at least three times. Amplification of other drug resistance occurred as recently as within the last year of sampling. High quality PE/PPE variants and indels added information for transmission inference. We identified five cluster-defining SNPs, including esxV S23L to be potentially contributing to transmissibility.\n\nInterpretationClusters defined by MIRU-VNTR typing, could be circulating for decades in a high-burden setting. WGS allows for an improved understanding of transmission, as well as bacterial resistance and fitness factors.\n\nFundingThe study was funded by the National Institutes of Health (Peru Epi study U19-AI076217 and K01-ES026835 to MRF). The funding sources had no role in any aspect of the study, manuscript or decision to submit it for publication.\n\nResearch in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSUse of whole genome sequencing (WGS) to study tuberculosis (TB) transmission has proven to have higher resolution that traditional typing methods in low-burden settings. The implications of its use in high-burden settings are not well understood.\n\nAdded value of this studyUsing WGS, we found that TB clusters defined by traditional typing methods may be circulating for several decades. Genomic regions typically excluded from WGS analysis contain large amount of genetic variation that may affect interpretation of transmission events. We also identified five bacterial mutations that may contribute to transmission fitness.\n\nImplications of all the available evidenceAdded value of WGS for understanding TB transmission may be even higher in high-burden vs. low-burden settings. Methods integrating variants found in polymorphic sites and insertions and deletions are likely to have higher resolution. Several host and bacterial factors may be responsible for higher transmissibility that can be targets of intervention to interrupt TB transmission in communities.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2019

Epidemiology of human culture: parietal rock art requires high population density

Demographic models of human cultural evolution have high explanatory potential but weak empirical support. Here we use a global dataset of rock art sites and climate and genetics-based estimates of ancient population densities to test a new model based on epidemiological principles. The model focuses on the process whereby a cultural innovation becomes endemic in a population. It predicts that this cannot occur unless population density exceeds a critical value. Analysis of the data, using a Bayesian statistical framework, shows that the model has stronger empirical support than a null model, where rock art detection rates and population density are independent, or a proportional model where detection is directly proportional to population density. Comparisons between results for different geographical areas and periods yield qualitatively similar results, supporting the robustness of the model. Re-analysis of the rock art data, using a second set of independent population estimates, yields similar results. We conclude that population density above a critical threshold is a necessary condition for the maintenance of rock art as a stable part of a populations cultural repertoire. Methods similar to those described can be used to test the model for other classes of archaeological artifact and to compare it against other models.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2019

Arbovirus Vectors of Epidemiological Concern in the Americas: A Scoping Review of Entomological Studies on Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya Virus Vectors

BackgroundThree arthorpod-borne viruses (arboviruses) causing human disease have been the focus of a large number of studies in the Americas since 2013 due to their global spread and epidemiological impacts: Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses. A large proportion of infections by these viruses are asymptomatic. However, all three viruses are associated with moderate to severe health consequences in a small proportion of cases. Two mosquito species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, are among the worlds most prominent arboviral vectors, and are known primary vectors for all three viruses in the Americas.\n\nObjectivesThis review summarizes the state of the entomological literature surrounding the biology and ecology of vectors of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses and factors affecting virus transmission. The rationale of the review was to elucidate consensus and discord between studies, and guide future research based on identified knowledge gaps.\n\nResultsA total of 196 studies were included in the scoping review after initial screening and subsequent exclusion of out-of-scope studies, secondary data publications, duplicate records, and studies unavailable in English language.\n\nKey findingsTemperature and humidity have the strongest impact on mosquito distribution and dynamics, development of immatures and arborviral infection rates. Low socioeconomic status and related factors, including poor infrastructure, inconsistent access to water, and high household resident density, have been consistently associated with arbovirus vector occurrence. Effects of interspecific competition on arboviral vector species is currently poorly understood. Vector competence for Zika virus is well established for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Information on Zika virus vector transmission dynamics is sparse in contrast to the wealth of research available for dengue and chikungunya viruses.\n\nConclusionsBased on the internationally recognized urgency of Zika virus infection as a public health concern, further research on arbovirus vectors and transmission dynamics is of pressing need.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Epidemiological survey of serum titers from adults against various Gram-negative bacterial V-antigens

The V-antigen, a virulence-associated protein, was first identified in Yersinia pestis more than half a century ago. Since then, other V-antigen homologs and orthologs have been discovered and are now considered vital molecules for the toxic effects mediated by the type III secretion system in infections caused by various pathogenic Gram-negative bacteria. After purifying recombinant V-antigen proteins including PcrV from Pseudomonas aeruginosa, LcrV from Yersinia, LssV from Photorhabdus luminescens, AcrV from Aeromonas salmonicida, and VcrV from Vibrio parahaemolyticus, we developed an enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay to measure titers against each V-antigen in the sera collected from 186 adult volunteers. Different titer-specific correlation levels were determined for the five V-antigens. The anti-LcrV and anti-AcrV titers shared the highest correlation with each other, with a correlation coefficient of 0.84. The next highest correlation coefficient was between anti-AcrV and anti-VcrV titers at 0.79, while the lowest correlation was found between anti-LcrV and anti-VcrV titers, which were still higher than 0.7 Sera from mice immunized with one of the five recombinant V-antigens displayed cross-antigenicity with some of the other four V-antigens, supporting the results from the human sera. Thus, the serum anti-V-antigen titer measurement system could potentially be used for epidemiological investigations on various pathogenic Gram-negative bacteria.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2019

Genomic epidemiology of a complex, multi-species plasmid-borne blaKPC carbapenemase outbreak in Enterobacterales in the UK, 2009-2014

Carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales is a public health threat. Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (encoded by alleles of the blaKPC family) is one of the commonest transmissible carbapenem resistance mechanisms worldwide. The dissemination of blaKPC has historically been associated with distinct K. pneumoniae lineages (clonal group 258 [CG258]), a particular plasmid family (pKpQIL), and a composite transposon (Tn4401). In the UK, blaKPC has caused a large-scale, persistent outbreak focused on hospitals in North-West England. This outbreak has evolved to be polyclonal and poly-species, but the genetic mechanisms underpinning this evolution have not been elucidated in detail; this study used short-read whole genome sequencing of 604 blaKPC-positive isolates (Illumina) and long-read assembly (PacBio)/polishing (Illumina) of 21 isolates for characterisation. We observed the dissemination of blaKPC (predominantly blaKPC-2; 573/604 [95%] isolates) across eight species and more than 100 known sequence types. Although there was some variation at the transposon level (mostly Tn4401a, 584/604 (97%) isolates; predominantly with ATTGA-ATTGA target site duplications, 465/604 [77%] isolates), blaKPC spread appears to have been supported by highly fluid, modular exchange of larger genetic segments amongst plasmid populations dominated by IncFIB (580/604 isolates), IncFII (545/604 isolates) and IncR replicons (252/604 isolates). The subset of reconstructed plasmid sequences also highlighted modular exchange amongst non-blaKPC and blaKPC plasmids, and the common presence of multiple replicons within blaKPC plasmid structures (>60%). The substantial genomic plasticity observed has important implications for our understanding of the epidemiology of transmissible carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales, for the implementation of adequate surveillance approaches, and for control.\n\nIMPORTANCEAntimicrobial resistance is a major threat to the management of infections, and resistance to carbapenems, one of the \"last line\" antibiotics available for managing drug-resistant infections, is a significant problem. This study used large-scale whole genome sequencing over a five-year period in the UK to highlight the complexity of genetic structures facilitating the spread of an important carbapenem resistance gene (blaKPC) amongst a number of bacterial species that cause disease in humans. In contrast to a recent pan-European study from 2012-2013(1), which demonstrated the major role of spread of clonal blaKPC-Klebsiella pneumoniae lineages in continental Europe, our study highlights the substantial plasticity in genetic mechanisms underpinning the dissemination of blaKPC. This genetic flux has important implications for: the surveillance of drug resistance (i.e. making surveillance more difficult); detection of outbreaks and tracking hospital transmission; generalizability of surveillance findings over time and for different regions; and for the implementation and evaluation of control interventions.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2019

Molecular epidemiology of Japanese Encephalitis Virus in pig population of Odisha, Assam and Manipur states of India

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) comes under the family Flaviviridae and genus flavivirus. It predominantly infects the children under the age of 10 years and the case fatality rate can stretch out as high as 30%. Pigs act as reservoir and amplifying intermediate host for JEV. Recent report suggested longer persistence of JEV in tonsil than in circulation of experimentally infected pigs. The current investigation was conducted to understand the prevalence and molecular epidemiology of JEV infection in pigs in three different geographical sites in India (Odisha, Assam and Manipur). Serum samples were tested by ELISA and RT-PCR for detection of JEV, while only RT-PCR was done in case of tonsils tissues collected from pigs slaughtered in abattoir. Prevalence of JEV was highest in Manipur (25.45% in serum and 10.08% in tonsil) but lower in Assam (3.75% in serum and 0% in tonsils) and Odisha (1.49% in serum and 3.7% in tonsils). The percentage of sero-positivity was found to be 3.75% of IgM and 9.9% of IgG in Assam and Odisha respectively. Genotype III (GIII) of JEV was the dominant genotype and sporadic mutations of S83G, H76P, E78Q, C55S, and S64W along with two consistent mutations V46S and V51I were observed in all the GIII strains. Analysis of the E gene sequence revealed a single mutation, S118N in the GI strain. Older pigs (above 7 months) were found to be infected relatively more (8.6%) than younger pigs (age group 3-7 months). In conclusion, the high JE virus infection rate of pig in the current locations suggests the need for continuous surveillance of this virus in pigs which will ultimately help to adopt an effective control strategy to prevent the spread of JE infection to human.\n\nAuthor summaryJapanese encephalitis is one of the contributing factors in acute encephalitis syndrome cases reported across India as well as Asia. Primarily young naive human population are affected with JEV. The death rate can be as high as 30% and in about 30%-50% surviving population paralysis, brain damage or other serious permanent sequelae may be observed. The viral load gets amplified in pigs and thus plays a crucial role in transmitting the infection in human communities living in close proximity to pig dwelling. The current study was conducted to demonstrate prevalence of JEV in pig population of three geographical regions of India viz. the States of Odisha, Assam and Manipur that have reported JE outbreaks in human population. The current study demonstrates that the rate of infection is 3.28% among pigs in Manipur followed by Assam and Odisha. GIII was found to be the most predominant JEV genotype, while only one GI genotype strain was detected from Odisha region. These findings suggested the need of continuous surveillance of this virus in pigs and proper implementation of human and animal vaccination programme to control the infection.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2019

The evolution of dengue-2 viruses in Malindi, Kenya and greater East Africa: epidemiological and immunological implications

Kenya experiences a substantial burden of dengue, yet there are very few DENV-2 sequence data available from this country and indeed the entire continent of Africa. We therefore undertook whole genome sequencing and evolutionary analysis of fourteen dengue virus (DENV)-2 strains sampled from Malindi sub-County Hospital during the 2017 DENV-2 outbreak in the Kenyan coast. We further performed an extended East African phylogenetic analysis, which leveraged 26 complete African env genes. Maximum likelihood analysis showed that the 2017 outbreak was due to the Cosmopolitan genotype, indicating that this has been the only confirmed human DENV-2 genotype circulating in Africa to date. Phylogeographic analyses indicated transmission of DENV-2 viruses between East Africa and South/South-West Asia. Time-scaled genealogies show that DENV-2 viruses are spatially structured within Kenya, with a time-to-most-common-recent ancestor analysis indicating that these DENV-2 strains were circulating for up to 5.38 years in Kenya before detection in the 2017 Malindi outbreak. Selection pressure analyses indicated sampled Kenyan DENV strains uniquely being under positive selection at 6 sites, predominantly across the non-structural genes, and epitope prediction analyses showed that one of these sites corresponds to a putative predicted MHC-I CD8+ DENV-2 Cosmopolitan virus epitope only evident in a sampled Kenyan virus. Taken together, our findings indicate that the 2017 Malindi DENV-2 outbreak arose from a strain which had circulated for several years in Kenya before recent detection, has experienced diversifying selection pressure, and may contain new putative immunogens relevant to vaccine design. These findings prompt further genomic epidemiology studies in this and other Kenyan locations to further elucidate the transmission dynamics of DENV in this region. Author summary (non-technical)Kenya experiences a substantial burden of dengue, yet the patterns of dengue spread in this region are unclear. Evolutionary analyses of dengue virus strain sequences could offer major insights into the spread of dengue viruses in this region, but there are very few DENV-2 sequence data available from this country and indeed the entire continent of Africa. We therefore undertook whole genome sequencing and evolutionary analysis of fourteen dengue virus (DENV)-2 strains sampled from Malindi sub-County Hospital during the 2017 DENV-2 outbreak in the Kenyan coast. We further performed an extended East African phylogenetic analysis, which leveraged 26 complete African env genes. Our results indicated transmission of DENV-2 viruses between East Africa and South/South-West Asia, that there is localized spread of DENV-2 viruses within Kenya, and that Kenyan DENV-2 strains were circulating for up to 5.38 years in Kenya before detection in the 2017 Coastal outbreak. We further performed selection pressure analyses and identified possible new markers of DENV-2 immune recognition specific to this population, with relevance to vaccine design.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2025

Antifungal susceptibility profile of clinically relevant species of the genus Sporothrix: establishment of Epidemiological Cutoff Values (ECVs) according to CLSI broth microdilution methodology

Sporotrichosis is a globally distributed subcutaneous mycosis caused mainly by Sporothrix brasiliensis, S. schenckii, and S. globosa. Cat-transmitted sporotrichosis, primarily caused by S. brasiliensis in South America and to a lesser extent by S. schenckii in Southeast Asia, is emerging as a significant public health concern, due its outbreak potential. Itraconazole is the first-choice drug for treatment of human and cats, but reduced susceptibility has been reported based on previously proposed epidemiological cut-off values (ECVs). To support resistance surveillance, we aimed to establish CLSI-endorsed ECVs for these clinically relevant Sporothrix species. A total of 3,588 minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values for seven antifungal agents (amphotericin B, itraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, isavuconazole, olorofim, and terbinafine) were obtained from 19 international laboratories. Four of seven antifungals met the CLSI M57 guidelines criteria to determine the ECV. Established ECVs for amphotericin B were found to be high with 8 {micro}g/mL for S. brasiliensis and S. globosa, and 4 {micro}g/mL for S. schenckii. Itraconazole ECVs were 4 {micro}g/mL for S. brasiliensis and S. schenckii. Posaconazole ECVs were 4 {micro}g/mL for all three species (tentative for S. globosa), while the terbinafine ECV for S. brasiliensis was 0.12 {micro}g/mL. Olorofim demonstrated good in vitro activity, particularly against S. brasiliensis. Overall, this study establishes validated ECVs for key antifungals against Sporothrix species and identifies a low prevalence of non-wild type (NWT) isolates, supporting ongoing antifungal resistance monitoring.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Teddy: neural inference of epidemiological parameters from viral sequences

Estimating how fast infections spread or how long they last is essential to control outbreaks. Phylodynamics methods enable the inference of key epidemiological pa-rameters from viral genomic data but remain limited in terms of biological realism and speed because they need to derive and compute likelihoods. We address this is-sue using simulation-based inference and introduce a deep learning-based framework directly trained on alignments of viral genetic sequences. Our neural posterior estima-tion matches the accuracy of leading Bayesian likelihood-based methods while running a thousand times faster and avoiding a phylogeny reconstruction step. This perfor-mance can be harnessed to analyze large datasets and opens new perspectives to tackle biologically realistic models in terms of pathogen life histories or genomic evolution.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2026

Neighborhood-Level Disadvantage Impacts Multiple Measures of Brain Health: An Imaging Epidemiology Study

BackgroundThe relationship between neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage and brain health is an emerging area of research with critical implications for public health and clinical practice, yet its influence on brain structure remains unclear. PurposeTo investigate the epidemiological association between neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage [Area Deprivation Index (ADI)] and morphometric neuroimaging variables in a consecutive, non-disease enriched patient population. Materials and MethodsThis study, conducted at an academic medical center and associated community partners, used consecutive cross-sectional MRI neuroimaging data from 2,826 inpatient and outpatient individuals without radiological evidence of disease from January 2024 to June 2024. ADI, a geospatially determined index of neighborhood-level disadvantage, was calculated for each individual. Linear regressions tested the relationship between ADI and multiple morphometric variables: brain age gap (BAG; estimated - chronological BA), total brain tissue volume (TBV; total gray + white matter), five subcortical region volumes (hippocampus, thalamus, caudate, putamen, and nucleus accumbens) and four cortical region volumes [anterior cingulate cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), lateral PFC (LPFC)]. Volumetric measures were normalized to intracranial volume. Models controlled for age, sex, and total white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV). Results2,826 individuals (mean age, 52.7 {+/-} 18.8 [standard deviation]; 1732 women) were evaluated. Residence in the 20% most disadvantaged neighborhoods was associated with a higher BAG ({beta}s > 2.12, Ps < .01) and decreased TBV ({beta}s < -5.12, Ps < .05). Additionally, increased WMHV was higher among those in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods (ts < - 2.50, Ps < .05) and associated with lower volume in most regions. Interaction models showed increased negative associations between WMHV and volumes of the caudate, nucleus accumbens, and lateral prefrontal cortex among those in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods. ConclusionsNeighborhood disadvantage is associated with adverse brain morphometry, including higher BAG, lower TBV, and amplified vascular-related regional volume loss. Key ResultsO_LIIn 2,826 adults (mean age, 53 years {+/-} 19; 1,732 women), residence in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods (national: 116/2,826, 4%; state: 129/2826, 5%) was associated with higher brain age gap at the national ({beta} = 2.12, 95% CI = 0.81 to 3.43, P = .001) and state levels ({beta} = 2.36; 95% CI = 1.10 to 3.61, P < .001). C_LIO_LITotal brain tissue volume was lower at the national ({beta} = -5.12, 95% CI = -10.13 to -0.11, P = .045) and state levels ({beta} = -6.13, 95% CI = -10.90 to -1.37, P = .011). C_LIO_LIWhite matter hyperintensity volume was higher in the most disadvantaged group (national: P = .013; state: P = .003) and demonstrated amplified associations with caudate, nucleus accumbens, and lateral prefrontal cortex volumes in the most disadvantaged group at the national and/or state levels (Ps < .05). C_LI

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2026

Epidemiology of Legionella: Genome-bAsed Typing (el_gato) - a new bioinformatic tool for identifying sequence-based types of Legionella pneumophila from whole genome sequencing data

Sequence-based typing (SBT) via Sanger sequencing has been the standard for describing Legionella pneumophila relationships for two decades. SBT involves sequencing seven loci, identifying alleles using the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) database, and inferring the corresponding sequence type (ST). While similar SBT approaches for other organisms can be easily adapted to whole genome sequencing (WGS), L. pneumophila presents two known challenges for this adaptation: multiple copies of one locus (mompS) and extensive heterogeneity in a second locus (neuA/neuAh). Although several computational methods have been proposed to address these issues, a WGS-based replacement with equal resolution to traditional SBT has been elusive. To address this gap, we developed el_gato (Epidemiology of Legionella: Genome-bAsed Typing; https://github.com/CDCgov/el_gato), which offers several advantages over existing methods: (1) a novel approach for resolving multiple mompS alleles identified in the same isolate, (2) the ability to capture diverse neuA/neuAh alleles, (3) fast runtime with an average of 27.7 seconds per sample, (4) easy installation via Bioconda or Docker and (5) an updated database as of March 2025. el_gato works with either paired-end short reads or genome assemblies, performing more accurately with paired-end short reads at least 250 base pairs (bp) in length. We compared el_gato against two other in silico SBT tools ("mompS", hereafter referred to as mompS tool and "legsta") using a dataset of 441 isolates with sequence types (STs) previously determined by Sanger-based sequencing. el_gato correctly identified the ST for 98.9% of the test isolates, compared to 95.2% for the mompS tool and 42.2% for legsta, demonstrating a significant improvement compared to the mompS tool (adjusted p = 1.06e-3) and legsta (adjusted p = 4.24e-55) in ST identification. Furthermore, el_gatos determination of ST was not significantly different from Sanger sequencing (adjusted p = 0.442). In summary, el_gato significantly improves in silico SBT and given its growing adoption, is poised to support the public health community.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2026

Genomic epidemiology of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from the G-ToG clinical trial, 2014-2016

Neisseria gonorrhoeae remains a major public health threat due to rising incidence and increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR). To characterise the landscape of gonococci circulating in England a decade ago, we analysed whole genome sequences and clinical metadata from 354 isolates collected during the G-ToG clinical trial between 2014 and 2016. Comparison with global datasets demonstrated that the G-ToG isolates captured the breadth of UK gonococcal diversity, mapping across multiple lineages without evidence of marked bias related to participant demographic characteristics. The phylogenetic structure of gonococcal isolates within the collection was strongly shaped by sexual network, with statistically significant clustering of isolates circulating within heterosexual individuals compared with the men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission group. MSM-associated lineages exhibited higher minimum inhibitory concentration (MICs) to azithromycin and ceftriaxone and were enriched for corresponding chromosomal AMR determinants and AMR-associated plasmids. These data provide a valuable baseline preceding the implementation of several major UK public health interventions, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (HIV PrEP), doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (Doxy-PEP) and vaccination with Bexsero. Continued integration of genomic and epidemiological surveillance will be essential to monitor whether these interventions reshape gonococcal transmission dynamics and AMR trajectories, guiding future control strategies.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2026

Brown and Lesser noddies as epidemiological reservoirs and sentinels of avian influenza virus in the South-western Indian Ocean

Avian influenza virus (AIV) epidemiology is well-documented in temperate regions but remains poorly understood in isolated ecosystems like tropical oceanic islands. On these islands, seabirds nest in dense interspecific colonies where the role of different species as reservoirs and dispersers of AIV may vary greatly. Here, we examine the role of noddies (Anous spp.) as potential reservoirs for low pathogenic AIV and evaluate their potential as sentinel species for highly pathogenic AIV introduction on tropical oceanic islands. We analyzed blood samples from 11 seabird species across eight islands in the southwestern Indian Ocean (2015-2020). Noddies exhibited high, stable seroprevalence (30-45%), comparable to reservoir host species in temperate regions. The detection of two N7-positive noddies, sampled the same year on two distinct islands, provided direct molecular evidence that AIV actively circulates on these island colonies. While most other species showed low exposure, Bridled Terns (Onychoprion anaethetus) had exceptionally high seroprevalence (80%), though their reservoir status requires further investigation due to limited sampling. Given noddies consistent exposure and regional distribution, we recommend prioritizing islands with large noddy populations for AIV surveillance. Continued investigation of viral dynamics within and among islands is now called for to elucidate the ecological drivers of AIV maintenance and transmission.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Differing effects of parasite-parasite interaction types on the spatial epidemiology of co-circulating parasites

Interactions among co-circulating parasite species influence infection risk and disease progression. Interactions can occur within hosts, e.g. altering susceptibility, or indirectly through host demography or movement, potentially affecting landscape-scale transmission. Despite their ubiquity, the spatial implications of these interactions have received limited attention. We combine spatially-explicit modelling with laboratory experiments to investigate how parasite-parasite interactions influence disease spread. We model within-host, demographic, and dispersal-related interactions across a linear landscape, showing that within-host interactions modifying host susceptibility have the strongest effects on parasite prevalence, spatial heterogeneity, and rate of spread. These effects are amplified when parasites invade sequentially, generating pronounced patch-level priority effects. We tested these predictions experimentally using a protist host (Paramecium caudatum) and two bacterial parasites (Holospora undulata and H. obtusa). Consistent with model predictions, we found that H. obtusa reduces the overall prevalence and spread of H. undulata across a landscape of interconnected patches, likely through reductions in host susceptibility, and evidence of priority effects, observing reduced H. undulata prevalence when introduced after H. obtusa. Our results highlight that parasite-parasite interactions can have important implications for the landscape-scale epidemiology of co-circulating parasites, but the effect magnitude depends on the interaction type and the timing of invasion.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Genomic epidemiology of the 2017-2023 outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis sequence type ST21 in New Zealand

Mycoplasma bovis was first detected in cattle in New Zealand in 2017, prompting an eradication programme that incorporated extensive surveillance and a test-and-cull policy. Genome sequence data and phylodynamic models were used to inform decision making throughout the eradication programme. Isolates from 697 cattle on 126 farms were collected and sequenced between July 2017 and December 2023. Phylodynamic models were used to estimate the time of most recent common ancestor, the effective reproduction number (Reff) and effective population size, and long-range and local between-farm transmission dynamics. The analysis revealed the dramatic impact of movement restrictions and culling up to early 2020, with a sharp reduction in the Reff to less than 1 in 2018/9 and the extinction of two of three major lineages in 2020. This was followed by three-years of residual infection in farms in the South Island, associated with persistent infection of a large feedlot farm and nearby farms. The comprehensive dataset of genomic and epidemiological data provided a unique opportunity to study the dynamics of a country-wide outbreak of a single-host pathogen from first detection to potential eradication, underlining the utility of integrated genomic surveillance during an outbreak response. Author summaryThe economically important cattle pathogen, Mycoplasma bovis, was first detected in New Zealand in 2017. This led to a large-scale, successful control programme aimed at eradication of the pathogen. The decision to undertake an eradication programme was informed by initial analyses of whole genome sequences from isolates collected as part of the surveillance programme. The analysis showed that the bacteria had entered New Zealand relatively recently and was unlikely to be widespread. Over the subsequent years, genome sequencing and modelling of transmission dynamics informed important policy decisions made by the New Zealand Government and the cattle industry, and helped to monitor progress of the eradication programme. The impact of the detection, movement control and culling programme was profound, with sharp reductions in transmission between 2018 and 2020. This was followed by a long tail of localised infection in the South Island, involving transmission from a large feedlot farm. Provisional eradication was achieved after depopulation of this feedlot. This analysis highlights the role of genomic surveillance and modelling to inform decision making during an infectious disease outbreak.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2026

Machine learning cross-platform proteomic imputation enables protein quality scoring and replication of epidemiological associations

High-throughput affinity-based proteomics has advanced biomedical research, yet fundamental, persistent discordance between mainstream platforms (SomaScan and Olink) routinely undermines the replication of findings. This platform-driven non-replication complicates downstream biological validation and biomarker prioritization. Here, we develop a machine learning-based framework for cross-platform protein value imputation to resolve this translational bottleneck. Using paired proteomic data measured by both SomaScan and Olink from 5,325 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we developed models to impute cross-platform measurements and applied them to two independent and demographically distinct cohorts (Cardiovascular Health Study [N=3,171] and UK Biobank [UKB; N=41,405]) for external validation. Our bi-directional model 1) established an imputation performance-based protein fidelity index, validated against gold-standard measurements from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (N=101) and Nurses Health Study (N=54), 2) enabled imputation of platform-exclusive protein measurements, and 3) facilitated calibration of overlapping proteins. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through three applications: 1) fidelity-informed analyses enhanced the replication of biomarker discovery, 2) recovery of SomaScan signals that were previously inaccessible in UKBs original Olink measurements, and 3) improved replication performance for overlapping proteins. Our study offers a translational roadmap that allows researchers to achieve reliable epidemiological replication, target specific assays for future optimization, and prioritize biological signal over platform noise.

bioinformatics↗