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Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic that began in Dec 2016 in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes sp. vectors highlights the urgent need to monitor the risk of re-establishment of domestic YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age- and sex-distribution of human cases in Brazil is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally using a new protocol reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission restricted to Minas Gerais, followed in late 2016 by a rise in viral spillover to humans, and the southwards spatial expansion of the epidemic towards previously YFV-free areas. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real-time, contributing to the global strategy of eliminating future yellow fever epidemics.

epidemiology↗

Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data

Model-based epidemiological assessment is useful to support decision-making at the beginning of an emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreak. However, early forecasts are generally unreliable as little information is available in the first few incidence data points. Here, we show how past Aedes-transmitted epidemics help improve these predictions. The approach was applied to the 2015-2017 Zika virus epidemics in three islands of the French West Indies, with historical data including other Aedes-transmitted diseases (Chikungunya and Zika) in the same and other locations. Hierarchical models were used to build informative a priori distributions on the reproduction ratio and the reporting rates. The accuracy and sharpness of forecasts improved substantially when these a priori distributions were used in models for prediction. For example, early forecasts of final epidemic size obtained without historical information were 3.3 times too high on average (range: 0.2 to 5.8) with respect to the eventual size, but were far closer (1.1 times the real value on average, range: 0.4 to 1.5) using information on past CHIKV epidemics in the same places. Likewise, the 97.5% upper bound for maximal incidence was 15.3 times (range: 2.0 to 63.1) the actual peak incidence, and became much sharper at 2.4 times (range: 1.3 to 3.9) the actual peak incidence with informative a priori distributions. Improvements were more limited for the date of peak incidence and the total duration of the epidemic. The framework can adapt to all forecasting models at the early stages of emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreaks.

epidemiology↗

Epidemiology of Cancers in Zambia: A Significant Variation in Cancer Incidence and Prevalence across the Nation

BackgroundCancers are one of the leading causes of death worldwide. More than two thirds of deaths due to cancers occur in low- and middle-income countries whereZambia belongs. This study therefore sought to assess the epidemiology of cancers in Zambia.\n\nMethodsWe conducted a retrospective observational study nested on Zambia National Cancer Registry (ZNCR) histopathological and clinical data from 2007 to 2014. Zambia Central Statistics Office (CSO)demographic datawere used to calculate prevalence and incidence rates of cancers. Age-adjusted rates and case fatality rates were estimated using standard methods. We used a Poisson Approximation for calculating 95% confidence intervals (CI).\n\nResultsThe top seven most cancer prevalent districts in Zambia have been Luangwa, Kabwe, Lusaka, Monze, Mongu, Katete and Chipata. Cervical cancer, prostate cancer, breast cancer and Kaposis sarcoma were the top four most prevalent cancers as well as major causes of cancer related deaths in Zambia. Standardised Incidence Rates and 95% CI for the top four cancers were: cervix uteri (186.3; CI = 181.77 - 190.83), prostate (60.03; CI = 57.03 - 63.03), breast (38.08; CI = 36.0 - 40.16) and Kaposis sarcoma (26.18; CI = 25.14 - 27.22).CFR were: Leukaemia (38.1%); pancreatic cancer (36.3%); lung cancer (33.3%); and brain, nervous system (30.2%). Cancers were associated with HIV with p-value of 0.000 and Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.818.\n\nConclusionsThe widespread distribution of cancers with high prevalence in the southern zone has been perpetrated by lifestyle and sexual culture as well as geography. Intensifying cancer screening and early detection countrywide as well as changing the lifestyle and sexual culture would greatly help in the reduction of cancer cases in Zambia.

epidemiology↗

Bayesian learning ecosystem dynamics with delayed dependencies from incomplete multiple source data : an application to plant epidemiology

Ecosystem dynamics forecasting is central to major problems in ecology, society, and economy. The existing models serve as decision tools but their parameters valitity are usually not confronted to real data in a formalized approach. Dynamics bayesian network inference is promissing but limited when dealing with incomplete multiple source time series with delayed time dependencies. We propose here a temporal bayesian network with time delay and aproximate inference algorithm, to learn altogether cryptic ecosystem variables, missing data, and model parameters. The novelty in the approach is that it combines simulation-based and likelihood-based aproximate bayesian inference. The advantage of simulation based is that it allows to sample hidden processes. The advantage of likelihood based is that it provides a summary statistics that is really representing the model we are interested in. The ecosystem variables and the missing data are simulated from indicator variables using the probabilistic indicator-ecosystem model. The likelihood is estimated by averaging the probability of observed-simulated data over simulations, the parameter space is sampled with Metropolis Hasting algorithm. Another innovative proposition is to parametrize the network structure in order to learn model structure within a space provided by prior distribution. We apply to plant epidemiology.

epidemiology↗

Molecular epidemiology and high mortality of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Oman: a re-emerging infection

BackgroundCrimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a serious disease with a high fatality rate reported in many countries. The first case of CCHF in Oman was detected in 1995 and serosurveys have suggested widespread infection of humans and livestock throughout the country.\n\nMethodologyCases of CCHF reported to the Ministry of Health (MoH) of Oman between 1995 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Diagnosis was confirmed by serology and/or molecular tests in Oman. Stored RNA from recent cases was studied by sequencing the complete open reading frame (ORF) of the viral S segment at Public Health England, enabling phylogenetic comparisons to be made with other S segments of strains obtained from the region.\n\nFindingsOf 88 cases of CCHF, 4 were sporadic in 1995 and 1996, then none occurred until 2011. From 2011-2017, incidence has steadily increased and 19 (23.8%) of 80 cases clustered around Eid Al Adha. The median (range) age was 33 (15-68) years and 79 (90%) were male. The major risk for infection was contact with animals and/or butchering in 73/88 (83%) and only one case was related to tick bites alone. Severe cases were over-represented: 64 (72.7%) had a platelet count < 50 x 109/L and 32 (36.4%) died. There was no intrafamilial spread or healthcare-associated infection. The viral S segments from 11 patients presenting in 2013 and 2014 were all grouped in Asia 1 (IV) lineage.\n\nConclusionsCCHF is well-established throughout Oman, with a single strain of virus present for at least 20 years. Most patients are men involved in animal husbandry and butchery. The high mortality suggests that there is substantial under-diagnosis of milder cases. Preventive measures have been introduced to reduce risks of transmission to animal handlers and butchers and to maintain safety in healthcare settings.\n\nAuthor summaryCrimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, an often fatal tick-borne viral disease, has made an impact in the Sultanate of Oman--affecting nationals and expatriates alike--for the past 20 years. In this retrospective review of the epidemiology and outcomes of cases in Oman from 1995 to 2017, we identified 4 sporadic cases in 1995 and 1996, then none until 2011, followed by a steady increase until 2017. The mortality rate of 32 of 88 cases (36.4%) is high in comparison to studies from other countries and this could be explained by under-diagnoses of milder cases in the Sultanate.\n\nTransmission is commonly associated with animal husbandry and butchering and 88% cases were infected by contact with animals, whereas transmission by tick bite is more commonly recorded in some countries. A proportion of cases (23.8%) were clustered around the Eid-Al-Ahda festival which has, from 2011-2017, occurred in the summer months, which have a higher risk of transmission. This additional risk has been noted and preventive measures have been introduced to reduce the risk of transmission to animal handlers and butchers.

epidemiology↗

A configural model of expert judgement as a preliminary epidemiological study of injury problems: An application to drowning.

Robust epidemiological studies identifying determinants of negative health outcomes require significant research effort. Expert judgement is proposed as an efficient alternative or preliminary research design for risk factor identification associated with unintentional injury. This proposition was tested in a multi-factorial balanced experimental design using specialist judges (N=18), lifeguards and surfers, to assess the risk contribution to drowning for swimming ability, surf bathing experience, and wave height. All factors provided unique contributions to drowning risk (p<.001). An interaction (p=.02) indicated that occasional surf bathers face a proportionally increased risk of drowning at increased wave heights relative to experienced surf bathers. Although findings were limited by strict criteria, and no gold standard comparison data were available, the study provides new evidence on causal risk factors for a drowning scenario. Countermeasures based on these factors are proposed. Further application of the method may assist in developing new interventions to reduce unintentional injury.

epidemiology↗

Positive effects of low LDL-C and statins on bone mineral density: an integrated epidemiological observation analysis and Mendelian Randomization study

BackgroundLow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is suggested to play a role in osteoporosis but its association with bone metabolism remains unclear. Effects of LDL-C-lowering drugs on bone are also controversial. We aim to determine whether LDL-C is linked causally to BMD and assess the effects of LDL-C-lowering drugs on BMD. MethodsAssociation between blood lipid levels and BMD was examined by epidemiological observation analyses in US representative cohort NHANES III (N=3,638) and Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study (HKOS; N=1,128). Two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR), employing genetic data from GWAS of blood lipids (N=188,577), total body BMD (TB-BMD) (N=66,628) and estimated BMD (eBMD) (N=142,487), was performed to infer causality between blood lipids and BMD. Genetic proxies for LDL-C-lowering drugs were used to examine the drugs effects on BMD. ResultsIn NHANES III cohort, each SD decrease in LDL-C was associated with 0.045 SD increase in femoral neck BMD (95% CI: 0.009 to 0.081; P=0.015). A similar increase in BMD was observed in HKOS at femoral neck and lumbar spine. In MR analysis, decrease in genetically predicted LDL-C was associated with increase in TB-BMD [estimate per SD decrease, 0.038 (95% CI: 0.002 to 0.074); P=0.038] and eBMD [0.076 (0.042 to 0.111); P=1.20x10-5]. Reduction of TB-BMD was causally associated with increased LDL-C [0.035 (0.033 to 0.066); P=0.034]. Statins LDL-C-lowering proxies were associated with increased TB-BMD [0.18 (0.044 to 0.316); P=9.600x10-3] and eBMD [0.143 (0.062 to 0.223); P=5.165x10-4]. ConclusionsNegative causal association exists between LDL-C level and BMD. Statins LDL-C-lowering effect increases BMD, suggesting its protective effect on bone.

epidemiology↗

Landscape epidemiology of ash dieback

Ash dieback caused by Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, an invasive alien pathogen, has been severely damaging European ash populations. Nevertheless, a large range of disease severities was observed at the landscape scale in the field. Several studies suggested that environment, such as climate, site conditions or local tree cover strongly affects ash dieback. We characterized the landscape epidemiology of the disease at two stages of the invasion process with spatio-temporal models using Bayesian models fitted by Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). We first analyzed the effect of landscape features on the disease arrival and establishment stage at the scale of a village in NE France in 2012, 2 years after first report of the disease in the area and then, on the disease development stage in 2016-18. Landscape features had little impact on the disease at the establishment stage but strongly determined it further development. The local fragmentation of the tree cover was the most important factor with trees isolated or in hedges in agricultural settings far less affected then trees in forest environment. We showed that they were subjected to different microclimate with higher crown temperatures unfavorable to the pathogen development. Furthermore, host density was important for disease development with ash at low density far less affected by ash dieback. Presence of ashes in the vicinity affected local disease severity up to several hundred meters. These results may help to develop management strategy for the disease.

epidemiology↗

A Comparative Assessment of Visceral Leishmaniasis Burden in Two Eco-epidemiologically Different Countries, India and Sudan

The two hyper-endemic regions for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in the world are located in India and Sudan. These two countries account for more than half of the worlds VL burden. The regional risk factors associated with VL vary drastically per region. A mathematical model of VL transmission dynamics is introduced and parametrized to quantify risk of VL infection in India and Sudan via a careful analysis of VL prevalence level and the control reproductive number, [Formula], a metric often used to characterize the degree of endemicity. Parameters, associated with VL-epidemiology for India and Sudan, are estimated using data from health departmental reports, clinical trials, field studies, and surveys in order to assess potential differences between the hyper-endemic regions of India and Sudan. The estimated value of reproduction number for India is found to be 60% higher than that of Sudan ([Formula] and [Formula]). It is observed that the [Formula] is most sensitive to the average biting rate and vector-human transmission rates irrespective of regional differences. The treatment rate is found to be the most sensitive parameter to VL prevalence in humans for both India and Sudan. Although the unexplained higher incidence of VL in India needs to be carefully monitored during long-term empirical follow-up, the risk factors associated with vectors are identified as more critical to dynamics of VL than factors related to humans through this modeling study.\n\nAuthor SummaryThe Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease, primarily endemic in five countries, with India and Sudan having the highest burden. The risk factors associated with VL are either unknown in some regions or vary drastically among empirical studies. In this study, we collect VL-related data from multiple sources for the two different countries, India and Sudan, and use techniques from mathematical modeling to understand factors that may be critical in the spread and control of VL. The results suggest that the risk factors associated with disease progression are important in explaining high VL prevalence in both the countries. However, the likelihood of disease outbreak in India is much higher than that in Sudan and the probability of transmission between human and sandfly populations vary significantly between the two. The results have implications towards VL elimination and may require a review of current control priorities.

epidemiology↗

Evolution and expansion of multidrug resistant malaria in Southeast Asia: a genomic epidemiology study

BackgroundA multidrug resistant co-lineage of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, named KEL1/PLA1, spread across Cambodia c.2008-2013, causing high treatment failure rates to the frontline combination therapy dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. Here, we report on the evolution and spread of KEL1/PLA1 in subsequent years.\n\nMethodsWe analysed whole genome sequencing data from 1,673 P. falciparum clinical samples collected in 2008-2018 from northeast Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. By investigating genome-wide relatedness between parasites, we inferred patterns of shared ancestry in the KEL1/PLA1 population.\n\nFindingsKEL1/PLA1 spread rapidly from 2015 into all of the surveyed countries and now exceeds 80% of the P. falciparum population in several regions. These parasites maintained a high level of genetic relatedness reflecting their common origin. However, several genetic subgroups have recently emerged within this co-lineage with diverse geographical distributions. Some of these emerging KEL1/PLA1 subgroups carry recent mutations in the chloroquine resistance transporter (crt) gene, which arise on a specific genetic background comprising multiple genomic regions.\n\nInterpretationAfter emerging and circulating for several years within Cambodia, the P. falciparum KEL1/PLA1 co-lineage diversified into multiple subgroups and acquired new genetic features including novel crt mutations. These subgroups have rapidly spread into neighbouring countries, suggesting enhanced fitness. These findings highlight the urgent need for elimination of this increasingly drug-resistant parasite co-lineage, and the importance of genetic surveillance in accelerating elimination efforts.\n\nFundingWellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development.\n\nResearch in context O_TEXTBOXEvidence before this studyThis study updates our previous work describing the emergence and spread of a multidrug resistant P. falciparum co-lineage (KEL1/PLA1) within Cambodia up to 2013. Since then, a regional genetic surveillance project, GenRe-Mekong, has reported that markers of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ) resistance have increased in frequency in neighbouring countries. A PubMed search (terms: \"artemisinin\", \"piperaquine\", \"resistance\", \"southeast asia\") for articles listed since our previous study (from 30/10/2017 to 05/01/2019) yielded 28 results, including reports of a recent sharp decline in DHA-PPQ clinical efficacy in Vietnam; the spread of genetic markers of DHA-PPQ resistance into neighbouring countries by Imwong and colleagues; and multiple reports associating mutations in the crt gene with piperaquine resistance, including newly emerging crt variants in Southeast Asia.\n\nAdded value of this studyWe analysed P. falciparum whole genomes collected up to early 2018 from Eastern Southeast Asia (Cambodia and surrounding regions), describing the fine-scale epidemiology of multiple KEL1/PLA1 genetic subgroups that have spread out from Cambodia since 2015 and taken over indigenous parasite populations in northeastern Thailand, southern and central Vietnam and parts of southern Laos. Several newly emerging crt mutations accompanied the spread and expansion of KEL1/PLA1 subgroups, suggesting an active proliferation of biologically fit, multidrug resistant parasites.\n\nImplications of all the available evidenceThe problem of P. falciparum multidrug resistance has dramatically worsened in Eastern Southeast Asia since previous reports. KEL1/PLA1 has diversified and spread widely across Eastern Southeast Asia since 2015, becoming the predominant parasite group in several regions. This may have been fuelled by continued parasite exposure to DHA-PPQ, resulting in sustained selection after KEL1/PLA1 became established. Continued drug pressure enabled the acquisition of further mutations, resulting in higher levels of resistance. These data demonstrate the value of pathogen genetic surveillance and the urgent need to eliminate these dangerous parasites.\n\nC_TEXTBOX

epidemiology↗

Programmatic goals and spatial epidemiology influence the merit of targeted versus of population-wide interventions for yaws eradication

Infectious disease eradication programs often pursue spatially targeted interventions, but how well they perform might depend on the underlying spatial epidemiology and the specific goal of the program. We use a stochastic compartmental metapopulation model of yaws transmission to investigate how total targeted treatment (TTT) performs compared to mass drug administration (MDA) in different settings. While TTT can efficiently control the prevalence of active yaws disease, we consistently found that multiple rounds of TTT are required to match the impact of 1 round of MDA on the prevalence of latent yaws infection. When complete eradication of yaws is the goal, MDA can achieve the same result as TTT more quickly and probably at lower cost. We found that the performance of TTT is improved when there is little mixing between subpopulations and when there is spatial heterogeneity in transmissibility, but even in these settings, our model suggests that MDA will still outperform TTT.\n\nSignificance StatementYaws is a neglected tropical disease that causes skin lesions. Eradicating yaws is challenging because people can be infected but not show any signs or symptoms for years. Using simulations, we found that targeting antibiotics to people with active yaws and to their neighbors is a good way to combat active yaws, but treating entire populations is a better way to get rid of all infections, including the hidden ones. Also, targeted treatment works better in populations in which people do not move around much and in which how easily the disease is transmitted varies from place to place. Overall, a targeted treatment strategy uses fewer antibiotics but takes longer than mass treatment to achieve results.

epidemiology↗

Spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation: An overview

An emerging disease is one infectious epidemic caused by a newly transmissible pathogen, which has either appeared for the first time or already existed in human populations, having the capacity to increase rapidly in incidence as well as geographic range. Adapting to human immune system, emerging diseases may trigger large-scale pandemic spreading, such as the transnational spreading of SARS, the global outbreak of A(H1N1), and the recent potential invasion of avian influenza A(H7N9). To study the dynamics mediating the transmission of emerging diseases, spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation provides a valuable modeling framework, which takes spatially distributed factors into consideration. This review elaborates the latest progresses on the spatial metapopulation dynamics, discusses empirical and theoretical findings that verify the validity of networked metapopulations, and the application in evaluating the effectiveness of disease intervention strategies as well.

Biophysics↗

Epidemiological and evolutionary analysis of the 2014 Ebola virus outbreak

The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades [1]. Here we find evidence that major Sierra Leone clades have systematic differences in growth rate and reproduction number. If this growth heterogeneity remains stable, it will generate major shifts in clade frequencies and influence the overall epidemic dynamics on time scales within the current outbreak. Our method is based on simple summary statistics of clade growth, which can be inferred from genealogical trees with an underlying clade-specific birth-death model of the infection dynamics. This method can be used to perform realtime tracking of an evolving epidemic and identify emerging clades of epidemiological or evolutionary significance.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Genomic epidemiology of the current wave of artemisinin resistant malaria

Artemisinin resistant Plasmodium falciparum is advancing across Southeast Asia in a soft selective sweep involving at least 20 independent kelch13 mutations. In a large global survey, we find that kelch13 mutations which cause resistance in Southeast Asia are present at low frequency in Africa. We show that African kelch13 mutations have originated locally, and that kelch13 shows a normal variation pattern relative to other genes in Africa, whereas in Southeast Asia there is a great excess of non-synonymous mutations, many of which cause radical amino-acid changes. Thus, kelch13 is not currently undergoing strong selection in Africa, despite a deep reservoir of standing variation that could potentially allow resistance to emerge rapidly. The practical implications are that public health surveillance for artemisinin resistance should not rely on kelch13 data alone, and interventions to prevent resistance must account for local evolutionary conditions, shown by genomic epidemiology to differ greatly between geographical regions.

Evolutionary Biology↗

DBSIM: A Platform of Simulation Resources for Genetic Epidemiology Studies

Computer simulations are routinely conducted to evaluate new statistical methods, to compare the properties among different methods, and to mimic the real data in genetic epidemiology studies. Conducting simulation studies can become a complicated task as several challenges can occur, such as the selection of an appropriate simulation tool and the specification of parameters in the simulation model. Although abundant simulated data have been generated for human genetic research, currently there is no public database designed specifically as a repository for these simulated data. With the lack of such database, for similar studies, similar simulations may have been repeated, which resulted in redundant works. We created an online platform, DBSIM, for simulation data sharing and discussion of simulation techniques for human genetic studies. DBSIM has a database containing simulation scripts, simulated data, and documentations from published manuscripts, as well as a discussion forum, which provides a platform for discussion of the simulated data and exchanging simulation ideas. DBSIM will be useful in three aspects. Moreover, summary statistics such as the simulation tools that are most commonly used and datasets that are most frequently downloaded are provided. The statistics will be very informative for researchers to choose an appropriate simulation tool or select a common dataset for method comparisons. DBSIM can be accessed at http://dbsim.nhri.org.tw.

Bioinformatics↗

16S rRNA amplicon sequencing for epidemiological surveys of bacteria in wildlife: the importance of cleaning post-sequencing data before estimating positivity, prevalence and co-infection

ImportanceSeveral recent public health crises have shown that the surveillance of zoonotic agents in wildlife is important to prevent pandemic risks. Rodents are intermediate hosts for numerous zoonotic bacteria. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) technologies are very useful for the detection and surveillance of zoonotic bacteria, but rigorous experimental processes are required for the use of these cheap and effective tools in such epidemiological contexts. In particular, HTS introduces biases into the raw dataset that might lead to incorrect interpretations. We describe here a procedure for cleaning data before estimating reliable biological parameters, such as bacterial positivity, prevalence and coinfection, by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing on the MiSeq platform. This procedure, applied to 711 commensal rodents collected from 24 villages in Senegal, Africa, detected several emerging bacterial genera, some in high prevalence, while never before reported for West Africa. This study constitutes a step towards the use of HTS to improve our understanding of the risk of zoonotic disease transmission posed by wildlife, by providing a new strategy for the use of HTS platforms to monitor both bacterial diversity and infection dynamics in wildlife. In the future, this approach could be adapted for the monitoring of other microbes such as protists, fungi, and even viruses.\n\nSummaryHuman impact on natural habitats is increasing the complexity of human-wildlife interfaces and leading to the emergence of infectious diseases worldwide. Highly successful synanthropic wildlife species, such as rodents, will undoubtedly play an increasingly important role in transmitting zoonotic diseases. We investigated the potential of recent developments in 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing to facilitate the multiplexing of large numbers of samples, to improve our understanding of the risk of zoonotic disease transmission posed by urban rodents in West Africa. In addition to listing pathogenic bacteria in wild populations, as in other high-throughput sequencing (HTS) studies, our approach can estimate essential parameters for studies of zoonotic risk, such as prevalence and patterns of coinfection within individual hosts. However, the estimation of these parameters requires cleaning of the raw data to eliminate the biases generated by HTS methods. We present here an extensive review of these biases and of their consequences, and we propose a trimming strategy for managing them and cleaning the dataset. We also analyzed 711 commensal rodents collected from 24 villages in Senegal, including 208 Mus musculus domesticus, 189 Rattus rattus, 93 Mastomys natalensis and 221 Mastomys erythroleucus. Seven major genera of pathogenic bacteria were detected: Borrelia, Bartonella, Mycoplasma, Ehrlichia, Rickettsia, Streptobacillus and Orientia. The last five of these genera have never before been detected in West African rodents. Bacterial prevalence ranged from 0% to 90%, depending on the bacterial taxon, rodent species and site considered, and a mean of 26% of rodents displayed coinfection. The 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing strategy presented here has the advantage over other molecular surveillance tools of dealing with a large spectrum of bacterial pathogens without requiring assumptions about their presence in the samples. This approach is, thus, particularly suitable for continuous pathogen surveillance in the framework of disease monitoring programs

Microbiology↗

Population genomics of bank vole populations reveals associations between immune related genes and the epidemiology of Puumala hantavirus in Sweden

Infectious pathogens are major selective forces acting on individuals. The recent advent of high-throughput sequencing technologies now enables to investigate the genetic bases of resistance/susceptibility to infections in non-model organisms. From an evolutionary perspective, the analysis of the genetic diversity observed at these genes in natural populations provides insight into the mechanisms maintaining polymorphism and their epidemiological consequences. We explored these questions in the context of the interactions between Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) and its reservoir host, the bank vole Myodes glareolus. Despite the continuous spatial distribution of M. glareolus in Europe, PUUV distribution is strongly heterogeneous. Different defence strategies might have evolved in bank voles as a result of co-adaptation with PUUV, which may in turn reinforce spatial heterogeneity in PUUV distribution. We performed a genome scan study of six bank vole populations sampled along a North/South transect in Sweden, including PUUV endemic and non-endemic areas. We combined candidate gene analyses (Tlr4, Tlr7, Mx2 genes) and high throughput sequencing of RAD (Restriction-site Associated DNA) markers. We found evidence for outlier loci showing high levels of genetic differentiation. Ten outliers among the 52 that matched to mouse protein-coding genes corresponded to immune related genes and were detected using ecological associations with variations in PUUV prevalence. One third of the enriched pathways concerned immune processes, including platelet activation and TLR pathway. In the future, functional experimentations should enable to confirm the role of these these immune related genes with regard to the interactions between M. glareolus and PUUV.

evolutionary biology↗

The influence of landscape and environmental factors on ranavirus epidemiology in amphibian assemblages

AimTo quantify the influence of a suite of landscape, abiotic, biotic, and host-level variables on ranavirus disease dynamics in amphibian assemblages at two biological levels (site and host-level).\n\nLocationWetlands within the East Bay region of California, USA.\n\nMethodsWe used competing models, multimodel inference, and variance partitioning to examine the influence of 16 landscape and environmental factors on patterns in site-level ranavirus presence and host-level ranavirus infection in 76 wetlands and 1,377 amphibian hosts representing five species.\n\nResultsThe landscape factor explained more variation than any other factors in site-level ranavirus presence, but biotic and host-level factors explained more variation in host-level ranavirus infection. At both the site- and host-level, the probability of ranavirus presence correlated negatively with distance to nearest ranavirus-positive wetland. At the site-level, ranavirus presence was associated positively with taxonomic richness. However, infection prevalence within the amphibian population correlated negatively with vertebrate richness. Finally, amphibian host species differed in their likelihood of ranavirus infection: American Bullfrogs had the weakest association with infection while Western Toads had the strongest. After accounting for host species effects, hosts with greater snout-vent length had a lower probability of infection.\n\nMain conclusionsStrong spatial influences at both biological levels suggest that mobile taxa (e.g., adult amphibians, birds, reptiles) may facilitate the movement of ranavirus among hosts and across the landscape. Higher taxonomic richness at sites may provide more opportunities for colonization or the presence of reservoir hosts that may influence ranavirus presence. Higher host richness correlating with higher ranavirus infection is suggestive of a dilution effect that has been observed for other amphibian disease systems and warrants further investigation. Our study demonstrates that an array of landscape, environmental, and host-level factors were associated with ranavirus epidemiology and illustrates that their importance vary with biological level.

ecology↗