Integrating nested species distribution models and multicriteria prioritization into an open-access geoportal for tropical forest restoration

Abstract

Tropical forests face increasing pressures from climate change and deforestation, which calls for the selection of climate-resilient species for ecological restoration. Species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated solely with regional data in the tropics often suffer from niche truncation due to data scarcity. We applied spatially nested models (N-SDMs), in one of their first applications in the tropics, to assess the current and future climatic suitability of 199 native forest species of continental Ecuador, integrating global and regional data through a nested approach that consistently outperformed regional-only SDMs (AUC = 0.95 vs. 0.83). Given a widespread projected loss of climatic suitability and an insufficient representation within the National System of Protected Areas, passive conservation alone is insufficient, which calls for an active prioritization tool. We developed a restoration potential index (IPR) that provides a continuous score for each species in every cell by integrating current potential presence, future climatic confidence and documented ecosystem services. This species- and cell-level resolution yields a restoration priority ranking that is robust across climate scenarios and is available for any site in the territory, distinguishing species of consolidated priority from those requiring urgent active propagation owing to their reduced current potential extent. All results are made available through the interactive geoportal geoSABINA, providing the first spatially explicit and climate-informed infrastructure to support the implementation of the Ecuadorian National Forest Restoration Plan (PNRF) and equivalent frameworks in the American tropics