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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.09.30.755293

Treeline ecotone habitat loss and upward shift is driven by land abandonment rather than climate change in the Italian Alps

Carrieri, E.·Nguyen, H. T.·Fabio, M.·Anselmetto, N.·Morresi, D.·Garbarino, M.
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Abstract

1. Plant populations at high elevation persist near their physiological limits, and treeline position is one of the clearest expressions of this constraint. In many mountain regions, however, this limit reflects historical land use as much as climate. Treeline shift is most often tracked as the displacement of a boundary line (1D) overlooking structural changes only visible when the ecotone is analysed as a surface (2D). 2. We reconstructed treeline ecotone dynamics at nine sites in the Italian Alps using aerial imagery from 1954 and 2017. At each site we detected the timberline and tree species line, quantified elevational displacement, and measured ecotonal surface change, relating them to climatic, land-use, and topographic predictors. 3. Both boundaries advanced upslope at all nine sites, with timberlines shifting faster (1.6 m/yr) than tree species lines (1.1 m/yr). This decoupled velocity caused the ecotonal surface to contract by ~17%. Land-use variables consistently explained more variance than climatic ones. 4. Land-use legacy and abandonment have a major role in shaping treeline dynamics. Boundary displacement reveals vegetation advance at both margins, while the surface view reveals concurrent narrowing of the habitat available for tree establishment. Both perspectives are needed to fully characterize how plant populations respond to shifting limiting factors at the treeline ecotone.

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Carrieri, E., Nguyen, H. T., Fabio, M., Anselmetto, N., Morresi, D., Garbarino, M.. 2026-09-30. Treeline ecotone habitat loss and upward shift is driven by land abandonment rather than climate change in the Italian Alps. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.30.755293

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