A plasma metabolomics workflow for breast cancer detection using quantitative GC/MS and machine learning

Abstract

Blood-based metabolomic profiling has been widely investigated for breast cancer (BC) detection; however, clinical implementation remains limited due to variability in sample handling, analytical reproducibility, and overfitting during statistical analysis. We established a plasma GC/MS metabolomics workflow for discriminating BC from healthy controls (HC) using conventional machine-learning algorithms. Plasma samples (n = 360; BC = 180, HC = 180) were collected prospectively under standardized preanalytical conditions before surgery and the initiation of systematic anticancer therapy and analyzed using a quantitative GC/MS platform with automated derivatization. Feature selection and model development were conducted using three machine-learning (ML) algorithms (Lasso logistic regression (LR), random forest classifier (RFC), and support vector machine (SVM)). A total of 45 metabolite candidate biomarkers were identified, and the optimal number of metabolite features for each algorithm was estimated by a recursive feature elimination (RFE)-based strategy. The best-performing models achieved area under the ROC curve values (AUC) of 0.910 (LR), 0.893 (RFC), and 0.843 (SVM). We selected prioritizing candidate biomarkers consistently expressed across the multi-algorithm pipeline. A bagging ensemble model improved stability (AUC = 0.911) and reduced false-positive predictions in the independent HC dataset. In addition, model stability with respect to false-positive predictions was assessed using an independent HC cohort (n = 15) that was collected at a separate institution. These results indicate that a plasma metabolomics workflow combined with conventional multi-algorithm ML, algorithm-specific feature selection, and independent assessment provides stable discrimination between BC and HC in a moderately sized cohort.