Detection of Red Crown Rot of Soybean in Illinois Fields Using High-Resolution Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning

Abstract

Red crown rot (RCR), caused by Calonectria ilicicola, is an emerging soybean disease in the U.S. Midwest for which scalable approaches to characterize within-field disease distribution are lacking. This study evaluated high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery for mapping RCR-affected soybean canopies across 15 commercial fields in Illinois surveyed during the 2024 and 2025 growing seasons. A total of 2,921 georeferenced canopy plots were classified as asymptomatic or RCR-affected and paired with six multispectral bands and seven vegetation indices. Spectral differences between classes were evaluated using linear mixed-effects models, and seven machine-learning classifiers representing linear, tree-based, neural-network, kernel, and probabilistic approaches were compared using spatially independent leave-one-field-out cross-validation. RCR-affected canopies exhibited increased reflectance in the visible and red-edge regions, reduced near-infrared reflectance, and lower vegetation-index values relative to asymptomatic canopies. All classifiers showed strong discrimination, with ROC-AUC values ranging from 0.963 to 0.982. Regularized logistic regression achieved the highest overall performance, with an accuracy of 0.945, balanced accuracy of 0.945, F1-score of 0.948, and ROC-AUC of 0.982 at the optimized decision threshold. Permutation analysis identified EVI, NDVI, and red reflectance as the most influential predictors across representative model architectures. Satellite-derived probability and classification maps generally corresponded with symptomatic canopy patterns observed in high-resolution UAV imagery, although mixed pixels reduced precision near disease-patch boundaries. These results demonstrate the potential of high-resolution satellite imagery for within-field mapping of RCR-associated canopy symptoms across independent commercial soybean fields.