Integrative analysis of the MDM2 promoter switch and cellular lineage plasticity in colorectal cancer: a contrast between the autonomous-proliferation type (CIN/CMS2) and the environment-adaptive type (MSI/gastric metaplasia)

Tsukui, T.; Tsuda, K.; Yao, R.; Shin, K.

doi:10.64898/2026.09.21.753357

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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.09.21.753357

Integrative analysis of the MDM2 promoter switch and cellular lineage plasticity in colorectal cancer: a contrast between the autonomous-proliferation type (CIN/CMS2) and the environment-adaptive type (MSI/gastric metaplasia)

Tsukui, T.·Tsuda, K.·Yao, R.·Shin, K.

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Abstract

Background: Biomarkers that stratify colorectal cancer (CRC) by therapeutic responsiveness and are measurable directly in biopsy specimens remain insufficiently established. We investigated whether usage of the dual MDM2 promoters (P1/P2) acts as a molecular switch separating two diametrically opposed CRC phenotypes: a chromosomal instability type and an environment adaptive type (microsatellite instability/serrated pathway with gastric metaplasia). Methods: Sixty three organoid samples from 22 patients with CRC were classified morphologically by deep learning (VGG16) and molecularly by an MDM2 Splicing Index derived from expression arrays. The P1 and P2 signatures (gene sets characterizing P1 and P2dominant samples) were externally validated in TCGA-COAD/READ (n = 624) and GSE39582 (n = 536), 1,160 cases in total, and therapeutic implications were tested in public cell line panels (GDSC2, DepMap) and in 65 lines of an independent patient derived CRC organoid biobank. Results: Deep learning morphological classification reached 98.5% test accuracy (64/65), and morphology corresponded to P1/P2 isoform usage: Type1 (compact glandular) morphology predominated in P1 dominant samples (median Type1 fraction 0.826 versus 0.444) and non Type1 (cystic mucinous) morphology in P2 dominant samples (AUC 0.79). Both signatures differed across the four consensus molecular subtypes , and the P2 signature was higher in mismatch repair deficient (microsatellite-unstable) tumors. Promoter usage quantified directly (P2_index) was higher in TP53 wild type tumors , consistent with P2 being p53-inducible. TP53 wild type cell lines were more sensitive to the MDM2 inhibitor Nutlin 3a and were more dependent on MDM2 in the DepMap CRISPR screen ; among 198 GDSC2 drugs, Nutlin 3a correlated most strongly with the P2 score. In the independent biobank, TP53 wild type lines (17) were more sensitive to nutlin-3 than mutant lines (48) (median log(IC50) 1.386 versus 4.283). Conclusions: MDM2 promoter choice (P1/P2) co-varies with the lineage identity of cancer cells and with the secretory, mucin rich character of the tumor tissue, consistent with a molecular-switch role alongside p53 suppression. The MDM2 P1/P2 ratio, measurable by RT qPCR or targeted NGS, is a candidate molecular-classification and therapeutic-stratification biomarker corresponding robustly to CMS, MSI, and TP53 mutation status.

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Tsukui, T., Tsuda, K., Yao, R., Shin, K.. 2026-09-26. Integrative analysis of the MDM2 promoter switch and cellular lineage plasticity in colorectal cancer: a contrast between the autonomous-proliferation type (CIN/CMS2) and the environment-adaptive type (MSI/gastric metaplasia). https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.21.753357

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