Critical Fragility Emerges from Chromosomal Instability in Cancer

Abstract

Genomic instability is a major driver of tumor evolution, promoting diversification and adaptation while simultaneously increasing the accumulation of deleterious alterations. How tumor populations balance these opposing effects remains poorly understood. Here, we introduce a computational framework that explicitly represents diploid genomes, functional gene classes, point mutations, and chromosome-segregation errors in spatially constrained and well-mixed tumor populations. We identify a viability boundary separating sustained tumor expansion from instability-induced population collapse. Within the viable regime, mutation and selection generate a stable distribution of genomic-instability classes that is accurately captured by an analytical replicator--mutator description. Near the viability boundary, tumor dynamics exhibit prolonged extinction transients and strong sensitivity to stochastic fluctuations, with important differences between solid and liquid architectures. Chromosomal alterations further modify growth by creating transient benefits through increased gene dosage and genetic redundancy, while ultimately increasing genomic fragility. Finally, simulated interventions show that eliminating low-instability subpopulations or increasing the global mutational burden can displace tumors beyond their viability boundary and trigger irreversible collapse. These results identify genome instability as both an evolutionary advantage and an intrinsic vulnerability, providing a quantitative framework for developing therapies that exploit the limits of tumor evolution.