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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.08.28.747639

Life history traits predict the contribution of transient dynamics to variation in population growth

Lin, H.-w.·Hernandez, C.·Jaggi, H.·ZUO, W.·Tuljapurkar, S. D.·Salguero-Gomez, R.
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Abstract

The performance of any natural population in variable environments depends on contemporaneous changes in its vital rates (e.g., survival, reproduction) as well as legacies carried by its population structure. Yet whether the relative contribution of these two pathways can be predicted from life history remains unknown. Here, we use stochastic simulations of 1,986 matrix population models from 137 species to quantify the contribution of transient dynamics to variation in population growth rate, and test its associations with key life history traits. Longer generation times were associated with reductions in transient contributions, contrary to theoretical expectations. Greater stage-specific survival heterogeneities were associated with increases in transient contributions, whereas greater iteroparity was associated with decreases in plants but increases in animals. These associations were robust to body size, phylogenetic relationships, and vital-rate variability. Life history traits therefore provide a strong predictor for when population structure shapes population responses to environmental variability.

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Lin, H.-w., Hernandez, C., Jaggi, H., ZUO, W., Tuljapurkar, S. D., Salguero-Gomez, R.. 2026-08-28. Life history traits predict the contribution of transient dynamics to variation in population growth. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.08.28.747639

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