A reproducibility-audit framework for generalizable versus dataset-specific molecular transition boundaries in Alzheimer's disease

Abstract

Molecular staging of Alzheimer's disease (AD) increasingly defines transition boundaries along single-cell pseudo-progression trajectories, yet whether such boundaries reproduce across brain regions, cohorts and molecular modalities is rarely tested. We present a permutation-controlled audit that combines nine boundary-detection algorithms with a fixed marker panel and four orthogonal reproducibility axes-algorithmic consensus, region, cohort and modality. On synthetic data with planted ground-truth boundaries the audit reaches 100% sensitivity and 94% specificity, rejecting four distinct artefact classes each by a different axis. Applied to the Seattle Alzheimer's Disease Brain Cell Atlas middle temporal gyrus, it localizes a transition that is robust across algorithms and recovered in most cell types but does not generalize: its leading marker is attenuated or absent in prefrontal cortex, entorhinal cortex and cerebrospinal fluid, and an apparent cross-region conservation of glial metabolic genes proves to be a global-expression offset rather than a shared program. The same audit nonetheless certifies an externally validated marker (astrocytic PTGDS) as reproducible across regions and modalities, showing that it separates generalizable anchors from dataset-specific ones rather than rejecting all signals. We provide this four-axis audit as a transferable, code-available standard to apply before a trajectory boundary is read as a biological stage, in AD and other progressive proteinopathies.