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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.08.07.743474

Widespread collapse in Iberian forest site productivity projected under future climate change

Fernandez-Pastor, M.·Rodriguez-Ruiz, G.·Monjo, R.·del Carre, M.·Hernandez-Parada, A. I.·Prado-Lopez, C.·Garcia-Valdes, R.·Redolat, D.·Moreno-Chacon, E.·Ribaylagua, J.
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Abstract

AimHere we aim to disentangle species-specific bioclimatic drivers of forest site productivity and project their future dynamics, providing a spatially explicit basis for anticipating climate-driven shifts in productivity and their implications for forest carbon sequestration. LocationIberian Peninsula. Time period1985-2014 (calibration); 2071-2100 (projected under CMIP6 scenarios). Major taxa studied21 Iberian tree species. MethodsWe used Site Form (SF) maps derived from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory, spatially interpolating plot-level SF estimates as a continuous productivity index and relating them to 25 bioclimatic variables. Multiple linear regression models were selected via complementary stepwise and subset regression and validated on independent hold-out data (80%/20% split). ResultsValidated [Formula] ranged from 0.46 (Quercus faginea) to 0.97 (Pinus pinaster); 17 of 21 species reached [Formula]. BI013 precipitation of the wettest month), not BI014, was the most frequently retained predictor (15/17); BI014 was retained in only (11/17 models with a near-even sign split. Combining projected changes in mean productivity and habitat extent under SSP5-8.5, fifteen of sixteen applicable species lose total productivity by 2071-2100, six -- including Fagus sylvatica and Betula alba -- collapsing to below 1% of their reference-period value; only Pinus pinaster gains, and only under the lowest-emission pathway (up to 175%) -- under SSP5-8.5 it too loses productivity, albeit less than any other species (35% of its reference-period value retained). Limiting warming to SSP1-2.6 spares Mediterranean pine and oak species but not Euro-Siberian and montane ones. Main conclusionsThese validated, extrapolation-aware models reveal a near-universal, climate-driven collapse in Iberian forest site productivity, with direct implications for the carbon-sink potential currently attributed to these forest types, and provide a route to dynamic, climate-aware carbon-uptake estimates for the region.

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Fernandez-Pastor, M., Rodriguez-Ruiz, G., Monjo, R., del Carre, M., Hernandez-Parada, A. I., Prado-Lopez, C., Garcia-Valdes, R., Redolat, D., Moreno-Chacon, E., Ribaylagua, J.. 2026-08-10. Widespread collapse in Iberian forest site productivity projected under future climate change. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.08.07.743474

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