Two-tower models for genomic prediction of reproductive outcomes and sex-specific fertility liabilities: simulation insights

Abstract

Many biological characteristics arise by interactions between more than one biological organism or unit. Fertilization success in sexually reproducing species represents such an extended phenotype where both mates are required to be fertile for a successful outcome. Consequently, predictive models should account for the joint nature of reproductive performance while offering interpretable estimates for individual mate contributions. Recent advances in genomics and machine learning (ML) provide standardized, high-dimensional genetic information on one hand and computational tools capable of modeling complex biological systems on the other. Here, we construct and evaluate two-tower (TT) machine learning architectures for genomic prediction of binary reproductive outcomes and recovery of sex-specific fertility liabilities. Simulated datasets, generated under a range of genetic architectures, were utilized to compare multilayer perceptron (TT-MLP), convolutional neural network (TT-CNN), and L1-regularized linear (TT-LASSO) two-tower models. Simulation scenarios varied sex-specific heritabilities, genetic correlations, infertility prevalence, mating structure, and sex-specific infertility rates. Models were evaluated with regard to their ability to predict reproductive success at pair level and also recover true underlying genetic values for male and female fertility. Prediction accuracy increased with the underlying heritable component as expected, while sex-specific tower-scores successfully recovered latent fertility liabilities despite models being trained only on observed joint outcomes. TT-LASSO achieved the highest overall classification performance, whereas TT-MLP provided more balanced and consistent recovery of sex-specific genetic values across scenarios. An additional simulation, incorporating genotype-dependent mate compatibility demonstrated advantages of fully-connected neural networks for capturing non-additive interactions. These results indicate that two-tower frameworks provide a powerful approach for modeling reproductive traits, enabling simultaneous prediction of aggregate reproductive outcomes and sex-specific fertility liabilities from genotypic information.