A Chromatin Biology Assessment of AlphaFold3

Abstract

Biomolecular structure prediction tools such as AlphaFold have achieved remarkable success in predicting structures of single proteins and multiprotein complexes. AlphaFold3 now incorporates the capability to model complexes containing nucleic acids and chemically modified side chains. Investigators can now predict structures of proteins bound to chromatin, where interactions with nucleosomal DNA and histone post-translational modifications converge to control genome function. To evaluate its robustness in modeling chromatin complexes, we benchmarked AlphaFold3 on 115 structures containing nucleosomes whose coordinates were released by the Protein Data Bank after the training set cutoff date. We find that AlphaFold3 excels at predicting histone-driven interactions and accurately models complexes that deposit and recognize post-translational modifications. By contrast, AlphaFold3 struggles to predict structures of chromatin factors that primarily engage nucleosomal DNA, notably transcription factors and chromatin remodelers. Finally, we show that AlphaFold3 can faithfully recapitulate known post-translational modification recognition patterns, matching experimentally determined specificity profiles. This assessment of the capabilities and limitations of AF3 in chromatin structural biology provides a roadmap for its effective application to studies of chromatin regulation and PTM readout, while identifying key areas for future algorithmic refinement. SignificanceStructure prediction with AlphaFold has become an invaluable tool in experimental biology, and the accuracy of many of its predictions has been verified in structural and biochemical studies. With the recent incorporation into AlphaFold3 of nucleic acids and post-translational modifications, this prediction tool can now be applied to chromatin structural biology. Our benchmarking of AlphaFold3 reveals its strengths and weaknesses in predicting structures of proteins bound to nucleosomes, thereby providing a framework for using these models in mechanistic studies of chromatin regulation. We introduce metrics for evaluating structures of nucleosome complexes that highlight AlphaFold3s strengths in predicting protein-nucleosome interactions and post-translational modification specificity.