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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.06.11.731600

Linking Host Covariates to COVID-19 Vaccine-Induced Antibody Dynamics in a Large Healthcare Worker Cohort

Peiter, C.·Sala, E.·Palma, G.·Zunarelli, C.·Hanson, M.·Abedini, M.·Tacconelli, E.·Boffetta, P.·Hasenauer, J.
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Abstract

Antibody responses to COVID-19 vaccination vary widely across individuals, but the factors shaping these differences and their relation to underlying host-response processes are still not fully understood. Here, we combined longitudinal serological data from 4,553 healthcare workers with a nonlinear mixed-effects model to quantify determinants of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics. This framework captured both population-level trends and inter-individual variability in anti-spike antibody trajectories after vaccination. We found that age, sex, and pre-vaccine infection significantly influenced response dynamics. Male sex and increasing age were associated with weaker initial antibody production but slower waning, while individuals with a pre-vaccine infection had pre-existing anti-spike antibodies and slower initial antibody production and faster waning. These effects translated into substantial long-term differences in predicted antibody levels, reaching up to a 27% decrease in antibody levels one year after the third vaccination. Our results provide a dynamic view of the determinants of vaccine-induced humoral immunity and establish a framework for analyzing heterogeneous immune responses in large longitudinal cohorts.

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Peiter, C., Sala, E., Palma, G., Zunarelli, C., Hanson, M., Abedini, M., Tacconelli, E., Boffetta, P., Hasenauer, J.. 2026-06-12. Linking Host Covariates to COVID-19 Vaccine-Induced Antibody Dynamics in a Large Healthcare Worker Cohort. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.06.11.731600

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