Search bioRxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/bioRxiv

bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.05.29.728691

Vegetation and fires under climate change: a Mediterranean modelled case study from central Italy

Perello, N.·Vissio, G.·Aflakian, P.·Biondi, G.·D'Andrea, M.·Trucchia, A.·Baudena, M.·Fiorucci, P.
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes are undergoing significant changes due to the combined effects of land-use transitions and climate change. In particular, land abandonment increased fuel availability, the expansion of the wildland-urban interface increased ignition frequency, while climate change increases the chances of fire-weather conditions and reduces vegetation recovery capacity. This study presents a modelling framework to investigate the coupled dynamics of fire and vegetation under different fire regimes scenarios, using a case study in central Italy (Monte Pisano). The approach integrates two cellular automata models for vegetation dynamics (Batllori et al., 2017) and for fire-spread (PROPAGATOR; Trucchia et al., 2020). The vegetation model represents succession among six functional classes, including grasslands, shrubs, and trees with different fire-response strategies (seeders and resprouters), while explicitly accounting for post-fire recovery processes. The model was calibrated for the area using historical fire perimeters and vegetation maps over 40 years. Fire spread is simulated probabilistically using PROPAGATOR, driven by fuel types, topography, and weather conditions. A stochastic coupling was implemented by sampling fuel classes from vegetation composition, and by feeding simulated burned areas back into the vegetation model, thus enabling dynamic fire-vegetation feedback. Future wildfire scenarios are constructed by linking ignition probability to fire-weather conditions derived from historical reanalysis data (1981-2023). Extreme fire events are defined based on thresholds of wind speed and fuel moisture, and their probability of occurrence is varied across scenarios to represent increasing climate-driven risk. Simulations are performed over a 100-year horizon starting from current vegetation conditions. Results show that, in the absence of fire, vegetation dynamics lead to dominance of late-successional, fire-resilient species (resprouters). This is particularly evident for low probabilities of extreme fire events, with fire impacts diminishing over time as landscapes become less flammable. However, increasing the frequency of extreme fire conditions resulted in persistent disturbance, maintaining higher proportions of shrubs and early successional vegetation, and sustaining elevated burned areas over time. Overall, the study shows that coupling fire spread and vegetation dynamics provides a useful framework for exploring long-term ecosystem trajectories under climate change. The results highlight the critical role of extreme fire events in shaping landscape resilience and suggest that future management strategies should account for fire-vegetation feedbacks to support more stable and less fire-prone ecosystems.

Explore related subjects

ecologyPreprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Perello, N., Vissio, G., Aflakian, P., Biondi, G., D'Andrea, M., Trucchia, A., Baudena, M., Fiorucci, P.. 2026-05-30. Vegetation and fires under climate change: a Mediterranean modelled case study from central Italy. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.29.728691

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Phenotypic diversity acts as a higher-order functional trait of populations

Functional traits are usually assigned to individuals, yet some properties exist only as differences among population members. Whether such higher-order properties predict collective performance remains unclear. Here we used the aquatic plant Spirodela polyrhiza to test whether phenotypic and genetic differences among genotypes predict non-additive population growth. We grew twelve Japanese strains alone and in all pairwise mixtures and quantified their growth dynamics. Mixtures sometimes outperformed the mean of their component monocultures, and some exceeded the better-performing monoculture, although diversity effects were negative on average. Positive effects were most strongly associated with between-strain differences in frond colour and morphology, identifying specific dimensions of phenotypic diversity as population-level predictors of synergistic growth. Genome-wide higher-level association mapping identified loci where between-strain diversity was associated with growth effects, implicating stress responses, secondary metabolism and frond morphology. Loci associated with reduced performance implicated chemical perception and self/non-self recognition, whereas those associated with positive effects reflected functional differentiation in stress responses and physiological niches. Our findings suggest that some traits generate new functions at the population level through variation among individuals, making diversity itself a higher-order functional property.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2026

Developmental cold exposure increases the ability to maintain body temperature during future cold challenges in a free-living altricial bird

Developing in suboptimal temperatures can have widespread negative effects in organisms, but early exposure to thermal challenges can also trigger increased investment in thermoregulatory capacity. Within birds, the effects of cold exposure during incubation may differ between precocial and altricial species due to differences in the ontogeny of thermoregulation. To date, most of the evidence showing that embryonic cold exposure shapes future thermoregulatory capacity comes from a few precocial species in laboratory settings. Less is known about sensitivity to low-temperature incubation in altricial species which only become fully endothermic after hatching. In this study, we tested the effects of cold temperatures during embryonic development by temporarily cooling the nest boxes of free-living tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) during late incubation and subsequently exposing nestlings to an acute cold challenge. Cold exposure during early development made nestlings better at maintaining their body temperatures during the acute challenge. Developmentally cold-exposed birds also had higher thyroxine (T4) levels when sampled at lower ambient temperatures, whereas control birds showed the opposite relationship. Among nestlings that failed to maintain their body temperature during the acute cold challenge, developmentally cold-exposed nestlings secreted more corticosterone during the acute cold challenge than control nestlings. Despite these changes, cold-exposed birds did not differ from controls in cold-induced metabolic rates, body mass, or bacteria killing ability. These results are, to our knowledge, the first to show that developmental cold exposure increases the capacity to maintain body temperature during future cold challenges in a songbird. These findings suggest that experiencing even a mild decline in ambient temperatures during embryonic development could prime birds to cope more effectively with harsh or variable environmental conditions later in life.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2026

Winter-run Chinook salmon juvenile recruitment and early life history response to flow in a heavily altered tailwater

Diverse life history strategies allow species to spread risk across a mosaic of habitat conditions. In Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), particularly in the Central Valley of California, this is expressed through varied adult run timings and juvenile outmigration strategies. Anthropogenic impacts, particularly dams, disrupt these fundamental life stage transitions, often forcing managed populations to adapt to homogenized, less stochastic hydrologic regimes. This is exemplified in the Sacramento River, where the conservation of endangered Sacramento River winter run Chinook salmon requires balancing complex water operations with the ecological needs of a population confined to a short stretch of suitable habitat downstream of Shasta Reservoir. Using a 23 year dataset (2002 to 2024), we evaluated the combined effects of flow, temperature, and spawner abundance on juvenile production and life history expression in this habitat. We found that flow and spawner abundance best predicted juvenile abundance at Red Bluff Diversion Dam while temperature had considerably less support. The proportion of juveniles migrating as smolts exhibited significant density dependence that was negatively correlated to both female spawner abundance and peak flows. These results suggest focusing on temperature management alone may be insufficient. Effective management strategies should consider flow variability and habitat restoration to facilitate varying migration strategies and expand upstream rearing capacity. By addressing these physical and hydrologic constraints, managers can better support the full suite of life history strategies necessary for the resilience of winter run Chinook salmon.

ecology↗