The Hypothesis Race Model for evaluation of research findings

Kelly, R. E.

doi:10.64898/2026.05.28.728385

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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.05.28.728385

The Hypothesis Race Model for evaluation of research findings

Kelly, R. E.

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Abstract

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) remains the dominant paradigm for evaluation of empirical research findings in medicine and the social sciences despite concerns about frequent misinterpretations of those findings. Achievement of "statistical significance," the goal of NHST, often beckons unrealistic conclusions. Helpful would be the addition of a broader, Bayesian perspective of research in terms of progressive readjustment of hypothesis credibility from all sources of evidence. For this purpose, the Hypothesis Race Model (HRM) provides an intuitive Bayesian approach that builds upon NHST-concepts, helping to correct misunderstandings with minimal reeducation. The HRM is an extension of the Bayesian approach by Ioannidis in 2005 that helped to explain "why most published research findings are false." It is powerful enough to serve as the foundation for mathematical models to estimate and reduce the cost of empirical hypothesis testing.

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Kelly, R. E.. 2026-05-29. The Hypothesis Race Model for evaluation of research findings. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.28.728385

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