GIRAF 1.0: A unified global framework to anticipate plant pest invasions

Abstract

Plant pests threaten 10-40% of global food production, resulting in $55-220 billion in annual economic losses. Despite these escalating risks, biosecurity remains largely reactive, lacking anticipatory frameworks that integrate pest-specific drivers governing transboundary spread. We present GIRAF 1.0 (Global Invasion Risk Assessment Framework), the first quantitative, data-driven system that unifies pest-specific multi-host landscapes, abiotic suitability, and global trade networks with international phytosanitary policies. We applied GIRAF to four globally devastating pests - ranging from viral to insect taxa - to reconstruct a century of transcontinental spread and generate the first multiscale atlases of future invasion potential. GIRAF reveals that 22-37% of Earths land surface can contain host communities that largely overlap with environmentally suitable hotspots. Over 115 countries are highly vulnerable to trade-mediated pest introductions despite adopted phytosanitary policies. GIRAF provides a foundation for proactive surveillance and pandemic preparedness, offering a scalable path for transnational biosecurity agencies and global food industries.