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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.02.04.701112

The Frequency of Population and Masting Fluctuations Is Increasing Globally

Pan, V. S.·Rothstein, P. E.·Gilbert, K. J.
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Abstract

Substantial anthropogenic changes to the environment have motivated efforts to quantify temporal trends in population dynamics. While most ecological research has focused on the mean and variance of population density and reproduction, the frequency of these fluctuations through time may also be changing. We analyzed 1,563 datasets of population density and 1,456 datasets of plant reproduction (masting) across the globe. The average frequency of fluctuations increased by [~] 0.5 - 3% per decade within each time series, representing a moderate change (Cohens d {approx} 0.4) over a period of 60 years. We tested four hypothesized mediators of this trend: increased temperature, increased frequency of environmental forcing, increased intrinsic growth rate, and increased distance from a saddle at zero density. Although all hypotheses were rejected, changes in the frequency of environmental forcing and intrinsic growth rate exhibited positive correlations with changes in population fluctuation frequency as expected. Our results suggest that successive peaks in population and masting density fluctuations are becoming closer in time, which may reduce the effectiveness of predator satiation, resilience of food-webs, and the risk of critical transitions, such as population extinction. We suggest some alternative hypotheses for what may underlie this surprising global pattern.

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Pan, V. S., Rothstein, P. E., Gilbert, K. J.. 2026-02-06. The Frequency of Population and Masting Fluctuations Is Increasing Globally. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.04.701112

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