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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.01.30.701161

The Age of Selection-Duality Mutation under Fluctuating Selection among Individuals (FSI)

Gu, X.
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Abstract

Our recent work on molecular evolution and population genetics postulated that individuals with a specific mutation exhibit a fluctuation in fitness, short for FSI (fluctuating selection among individuals), whereas the fitness effect of wildtype remains a constant. An intriguing phenomenon called selection-duality emerges, that is, a slightly beneficial mutation could be a negative selection (the substitution rate less than the mutation rate). It appears that selection-duality is bounded by two bounds: the generic neutrality where the mutation is neutral by the means of fitness on average, and the substitution neutrality where the substitution rate equals to the mutation rate. In addition, the middle point of generic neutrality and substitution neutrality is called the FSI-neutrality. An important problem is about the age profile of allele frequency, i.e., the arising timing of a mutation whose frequency in the current population is given (the allele-age problem for short). Solving this problem under selection duality would help extend the standard coalescent theory that based on strict neutrality to a more general form under selection duality. In this paper, we studied the allele-age problem under selection-duality by the first arrival time approach and the mean age approach, respectively. Since the general solution of allele-age problem under selection duality is not available, we focused on solving the problem at the substitution neutrality (the up-bound of selection duality), the FSI-neutrality (the middle-point) and the generic neutrality (the low-bound), respectively. Our analysis results in an overall picture that the mean first-arrival age of a mutation at the substitution neutrality is theoretically identical to that at the FSI-neutrality, which is numerically close to that at the generic neutrality. For illustration, we calculated the mean age of nonsynonymous mutations in the human population and demonstrated that the estimated allele-age could be overestimated considerably when the effect of FSI was neglected.

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Gu, X.. 2026-02-02. The Age of Selection-Duality Mutation under Fluctuating Selection among Individuals (FSI). https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.30.701161

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