How host contact network impacts N -strain SIS dynamics with coinfection via a global replicator equation

Abstract

Dynamical processes on complex networks have a long history of study with increasing applications across many fields. While epidemics in heterogeneous networks have received much attention in terms of how connectivity patterns drive epidemic outbreaks, affect critical thresholds, timescales, final outbreak size and immunization efforts, less attention has been devoted to endemic multi-strain scenarios and questions of selection and coexistence dynamics. Here, we provide an SIS framework for multiple co-circulating strains and co-infection, which can be reduced to a replicator dynamics on a host contact network. Using the analytical tractability of the replicator formalism, we study how network heterogeneity affects multi-strain dynamics, and compare its effects relative to the homogeneous contact distribution, identifying key relevant metrics for comparison. In particular, the pairwise invasion fitness matrix comparison reveals that higher network heterogeneity acts to increase the speed of multi-strain dynamics and typically tends to have stabilizing effects that reduce the number of coexisting strains. While many aspects of the replicator dynamics remain complex to study, especially for high number of strains, the advantage of this model representation lies in the dimensional reduction of a huge system, enabling general, more direct and efficient numerical computations. Furthermore the explicit bottom-up constitution of crucial parameters yields biological and epidemiological insight for critical system transitions across macroscopic gradients and can be used to guide interventions.