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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.01.15.699753

Subtype-Specific SASP Dynamics Predict Mesenchymal Transition in Recurrent Glioblastoma

Kotagiri, V.·Teng, A.
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Abstract

BackgroundTherapy-induced senescence is hypothesized to promote glioblastoma recurrence through senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) factors, yet no longitudinal study has tracked SASP dynamics across matched primary-recurrent pairs. We used the GLASS consortium to characterize {Delta}SASP trajectories and their clinical implications. MethodsWe analyzed 167 matched primary-recurrent GBM pairs from the GLASS consortium. SASP scores were calculated from a 10-gene signature. Patients were classified by {Delta}SASP trajectory (Accumulators vs Clearers). We tested associations with proneural-to-mesenchymal transition (PMT) and validated findings in TCGA (n=52). ResultsSASP dynamics were subtype-specific: Mesenchymal tumors showed significant SASP clearance ({Delta}SASP = -0.83, p = 0.0001), while Classical tumors remained stable (p = 0.86). Among individual genes, HGF was the only factor that increased at recurrence ({Delta} = +0.23, p = 0.016), while IL1A, IL1B, and MMP9 decreased significantly. {Delta}SASP strongly predicted mesenchymal transition (OR = 5.06, 95% CI: 2.30-11.18, p < 0.0001), which itself conferred worse survival (HR = 2.48, p = 0.0001). Strikingly, Clearers were nearly completely protected from PMT (2.4% vs 27.3% in Accumulators, p = 0.0008). {Delta}SASP correlated with immunosuppressive infiltration ({rho} = 0.65 with M2 macrophages, p < 0.0001). Baseline SASP predicted worse survival (HR = 1.65, p < 0.0001), an effect that persisted in IDH-wildtype tumors (HR = 1.32, p = 0.015) and was validated in the CGGA cohort (HR = 1.35, p = 0.003). External validation confirmed the SASP-Mesenchymal association in both TCGA (d = 1.75) and CGGA (d = 1.14). ConclusionsSASP trajectories are heterogeneous and subtype-specific. Patients who fail to clear SASP represent a high-risk subgroup undergoing mesenchymal transition and immunosuppression. These Accumulators may be optimal candidates for senolytic therapy, while Clearers demonstrate effective senescence surveillance that could be therapeutically reinforced.

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Kotagiri, V., Teng, A.. 2026-01-16. Subtype-Specific SASP Dynamics Predict Mesenchymal Transition in Recurrent Glioblastoma. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.15.699753

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