Search bioRxiv⌕ Search

bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.01.09.698552

In silico prediction of metabolic trait robustness in microbial cells

Abstract

In industrial applications, microbial strains undergo notable biomass expansion subjecting them to Darwinian selection. The consequent adaptive evolution may threaten the often tediously developed desired traits of the strains, such as flavor or platform chemical production. Yet, it remains unresolved how to predict the evolutionary trait robustness. Here, we propose TRAEV (Trait Robustness Against EVolution), a computational framework for in silico prediction of evolutionary trajectories and robustness of desired metabolic traits in application environments. TRAEV uses constraint-based metabolic model simulations to predict environment-dependent trait-fitness dependencies and Monte Carlo-based perturbation analysis to account for the stochasticity of adaptive evolution. First, TRAEV predicts the immediate phenotypic adaptation to the new environment, and then, the evolutionary trajectories of fitness and desired trait by sampling enzyme usage changes. From the predicted trajectories, trait robustness is quantified as two scores: Robustness Score (RS) and Trade-off Score (TS). RS and TS are the mean of a normalized desired trait and the mean of the product of normalized changes in the desired trait and in fitness, respectively, over intermediate metabolic states along the evolutionary trajectory. We validated TRAEV by demonstrating that it predicted the relative robustness of heterologous pigmentation of genetically engineered Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains in synthetic defined chemical environments aligned with experimental observations. We then further applied TRAEV to predictively assess the robustness of desired aroma generation trait in a wine must environment by multiple S. cerevisiae strains if they were developed via a laboratory selection process. Thus, we showed how TRAEV predictions could guide such strain development. TRAEV can be integrated into computational strain design workflows across microbial strains, metabolic traits, and application environments. Ultimately, model-predicted evolutionary robustness of desired traits can guide both strain and process development and help avoiding production losses and enhancing the economic attractiveness of industrial applications using microbial cells. Author summaryMicrobial cells developed to express desired traits by genetic engineering or selection processes are used in a wide range of applications, from biotechnological chemical production to food and beverage fermentations. However, when the cells replicate in the application environment the traits are subject to Darwinian selection and consequent adaptive evolution. As a result, desired traits can be rapidly lost. To mitigate such undesired evolutionary changes, we developed TRAEV (Trait Robustness Against EVolution), a computational framework for in silico assessment of evolutionary trajectories and robustness of desired traits in application environments by integrating constraint-based modeling and Monte Carlo-based perturbation analysis methods. We demonstrate the usability of TRAEV by validating its predictions with experimental data on the robustness of heterologous pigmentation of engineered Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains, and applying it to predict the robustness of aroma generation in wine must by multiple S. cerevisiae strains if they were developed by laboratory selection in specific conditions. As being applicable across microbial strains, metabolic traits, and application environments, we believe that TRAEV can help to avoid production losses, and thus, contribute to the development of economically attractive industrial applications using microbial cells.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Gu, C., Mustonen, V., Jouhten, P.. 2026-01-09. In silico prediction of metabolic trait robustness in microbial cells. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.09.698552

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

RELAX does not reproduce its own estimates at default settings, and its output does not show it

Selection-intensity estimates from RELAX are reported as a point value of K with a likelihood-ratio P. We report that, at default settings and on data of ordinary size, the program does not reproduce its own fits. Of 27 enzyme entries refitted under two optimiser configurations, none reproduced its log-likelihood to within 0.01 units; the median change was 103 units, the largest over 3,400, and four verdicts reversed. Eighty null orthologues reproduced none. A byte-identical command returned a distinct likelihood on every repetition, single-threaded, across three releases, and on alignments simulated under the fitted model, where 3.3 per cent of replicates reproduced. The documented random-number seed never reaches the generator when assigned on the command line, yet reads back as the value supplied. PAML localises the cause: its two-ratio model, without site classes, reproduced its log-likelihood for all 288 genes; its site-class models agreed for 27 to 67 per cent. The instability follows the mixture over sites, not the program. The output does not show it: 46 of 410 fits ended with a negative likelihood-ratio statistic, impossible under convergence, and 123 of 410 report a K re-estimated under a domain restriction rather than the unconstrained maximum. Of 234 published studies using RELAX, none reported a seed. Seeding while holding the thread count at one reproduced sixty of sixty runs on twenty genes under two releases; the seed alone reproduced none of five, and no documentation states the second condition. We recommend that fits be repeated and their dispersion published.

evolutionary biology↗

Sequential accumulation of adaptive alleles forms an inversion supergene in deer mice

Supergenes are clusters of co-inherited loci that affect multiple or complex phenotypes. Despite the growing number of chromosomal inversions identified as supergenes in natural populations, their molecular basis and evolutionary history often remain obscure. Here, we identified two candidate genes, Slc45a2 and Npr3, within a 41-Mb inversion supergene in the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) that respectively drive darker coats and longer tails - two traits associated with forest adaptation. Mice homozygous for the inversion (inv/inv) exhibit elevated Slc45a2 expression in melanocytes relative to the congenic standard genotype (std/std), disrupting pheomelanin production. In parallel, downregulation of Npr3 in inv/inv mouse growth plates prolongs postnatal growth of caudal vertebrae, resulting in tail elongation. Population-level analyses further implicate that this supergene arose through the subsequent accumulation of the Npr3 allele within the inversion, rather than by capturing all beneficial mutations at its origin.

evolutionary biology↗

Toxin structure shapes palatability in a chemically defended butterfly

The toxicity of chemical defences is well studied, but the potential contribution of compound structure to predator deterrence remains largely unexplored. Whether predation acts more strongly on toxicity or unpalatability remains largely untested, partly because few systems allow toxin structure to vary independently of quantity. Heliconius sara larvae provide such a system: those reared on Passiflora auriculata sequester cyclopentenyl cyanogenic glucosides (CGs), while those reared on P. biflora biosynthesise comparable quantities of aliphatic CGs. Using two invertebrate predators, Camponotus floridanus ants and Hierodula membranacea mantids, we tested whether this structural difference affects palatability independent of toxicity. Mantids rejected larvae with cyclopentenyl CGs more often than larvae with aliphatic CGs, despite no detectable difference in total CG content. This pattern was mirrored in extract-based assays with ants, independently of cyanide release: extracts with cyclopentenyl CGs remained deterrent, while extracts with aliphatic CGs did not differ in deterrence from water. Live larvae, by contrast, elicited similar responses from ants regardless of CG structure. These results show that variation in toxin structure can strongly affect palatability, with some compounds conferring greater protection than others. This demonstrates the importance of chemical structural diversity in the evolution of chemical defences.

evolutionary biology↗