Healthcare Infrastructure Shapes Evolutionary Trade-offs and Geographic Dissemination of Multidrug-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii

Li, S.; Wu, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Zhong, L.; Jiang, Y.; Wang, Y.; Li, J.; Lin, H.; Li, H.; Xia, S.; Du, H.; Zhang, R.; Lou, Y.; Wang, S.; Acinetobacter baumannii Research Group,; He, P.; Wang, M.; Du, J.; Zhou, Z.

doi:10.64898/2026.01.06.697983

bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.01.06.697983

Healthcare Infrastructure Shapes Evolutionary Trade-offs and Geographic Dissemination of Multidrug-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii

Li, S.·Wu, Y.·Zhou, Y.·Zhong, L.·Jiang, Y.·Wang, Y.·Li, J.·Lin, H.·Li, H.·Xia, S.·Du, H.·Zhang, R.·Lou, Y.·Wang, S.·Acinetobacter baumannii Research Group,·He, P.·Wang, M.·Du, J.·Zhou, Z.

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Abstract

Antimicrobial-resistant pathogens pose an existential threat to modern medicine, yet the evolutionary forces driving their adaptation in healthcare systems remain largely unexplored. We revealed that hospital network architecture functions as a primary selective pressure, driving pathogen evolution through infrastructure-dependent virulence-transmission trade-offs. Phylogenomic analysis of 5,023 Acinetobacter baumannii isolates across Chinas centralized healthcare system identifies two co-existing evolutionary strategies: a virulence-optimized clade (ESL2.4) that spread slowly (20.4 km per year) in low-connectivity hospitals, and a transmission-optimized clade (ESL2.5) that disseminate rapidly (65.2 km per year) through mega-city healthcare hubs, likely attributed to its capsule conversion and increased upper respiratory colonization. Comparative analysis with European A. baumannii populations demonstrates that healthcare connectivity, not geography, governs pathogen distribution through convergent genomic adaptations. Our simulation suggests competitive asymmetries of the two clades, following the ecotype principle and enabling stable coexistence. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a natural experiment validating these mechanisms: outpatient restrictions reduced transmission-optimized lineage spread by 89%, while virulence-optimized lineage persisted through inpatient networks. These findings establish healthcare infrastructure as a critical evolutionary driver with immediate implications for predicting and controlling antimicrobial resistance emergence across diverse healthcare systems.

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Li, S., Wu, Y., Zhou, Y., Zhong, L., Jiang, Y., Wang, Y., Li, J., Lin, H., Li, H., Xia, S., Du, H., Zhang, R., Lou, Y., Wang, S., Acinetobacter baumannii Research Group,, He, P., Wang, M., Du, J., Zhou, Z.. 2026-01-09. Healthcare Infrastructure Shapes Evolutionary Trade-offs and Geographic Dissemination of Multidrug-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.06.697983

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