Reconstructing the history of variation in effective population size along phylogenies.

Abstract

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThe nearly-neutral theory predicts specific relations between effective population size (Ne) and patterns of divergence and polymorphism, which depend on the shape of the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of new mutations. However, testing these relations is not straightforward, owing to the difficulty in estimating Ne. Here, we introduce an integrative framework allowing for an explicit reconstruction of the phylogenetic history of Ne, thus leading to a quantitative test of the nearly-neutral theory and an estimation of the allometric scaling of the ratios of non-synonymous over synonymous polymorphism ({pi}N /{pi}S) and divergence (dN/dS) with respect to Ne. As an illustration, we applied our method to primates, for which the nearly-neutral predictions were mostly verified. Under a purely nearly-neutral model with a constant DFE across species, we find that the variation in{pi} N /{pi}S and dN/dS as a function of Ne is too large to be compatible with current estimates of the DFE based on site frequency spectra. The reconstructed history of Ne shows a ten-fold variation across primates. The mutation rate per generation u, also reconstructed over the tree by the method, varies over a three-fold range and is negatively correlated with Ne. As a result of these opposing trends for Ne and u, variation in{pi} S is intermediate, primarily driven by Ne but substantially influenced by u. Altogether, our integrative framework provides a quantitative assessment of the role of Ne and u in modulating patterns of genetic variation, while giving a synthetic picture of their history over the clade. SO_SCPLOWIGNIFICANCEC_SCPLOWO_SCPCAP C_SCPCAPO_SCPLOWSTATEMENTC_SCPLOWNatural selection tends to increase the frequency of mutants of higher fitness and to eliminate less fit genetic variants. However, chance events over the life of the individuals in the population are susceptible to introduce deviations from these trends, which are expected to have a stronger impact in smaller populations. In the long-term, these fluctuations, called random drift, can lead to the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations in the genomes of living species, and for that reason, the effective population size (usually denoted Ne, and which captures the relative strength of drift, relative to selection) has been proposed as a major determinant of the evolution of genome architecture and content. A proper quantitative test of this hypothesis, however, is hampered by the fact that Ne is difficult to estimate in practice. Here, we propose a Bayesian integrative approach for reconstructing the broad-scale variation in Ne across an entire phylogeny, which in turns allows for quantifying how Ne correlates with life history traits and with various measures of genetic diversity and selection strength, between and within species. We apply this approach to the phylogeny of primates, and observe that selection is indeed less efficient in primates characterized by smaller effective population sizes.