Spatial and epidemiologic features of dengue in Sabah, Malaysia

Abstract

In South East Asia, dengue epidemics have increased in size and geographical distribution in recent years. Most studies investigating dengue transmission and control have had an urban focus, while less consideration is currently given to rural settings, or where urban and rural areas overlap. We examined the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of reported dengue cases in the predominantly rural state of Sabah, in Malaysian Borneo - an area where sylvatic and urban circulation of pathogens are known to intersect. We found that annual dengue incidence rates were spatially variable over the 7-year study period from 2010-2016 (state-wide mean annual incidence of 21 cases/100,000 people; range 5-42/100,000), but were highest in rural localities in the western districts of the state (Kuala Penyu, Nabawan, Tenom and Kota Marudu). The eastern districts exhibited lower overall dengue rates; however, we noted a concentration of severe (haemorrhagic) dengue cases (44%) in Sandakan and Tawau districts. Dengue incidence was slightly higher for males than females, and was significantly higher for both genders aged between 10 and 29 years (24/100,000; p=0.029). The largest ever recorded outbreaks occurred during 2015-2016, with the vector Aedes albopictus found to be most prevalent in both urban and rural households (House Index of 64%), compared with Ae. Aegypti (15%). These findings suggest that dengue outbreaks in Sabah are driven by the sporadic expansion of dengue virus in both urban and rural settings. This may require tailoring of preventative strategies to suit different transmission ecologies across Sabah. Further studies to better understand the drivers of dengue in Sabah may aid dengue control efforts in Malaysia, and more broadly in South East Asia.\n\nAuthor summaryIn order to combat the rising regional incidence of dengue in South East Asia, the drivers of transmission must be better characterised across different environmental settings. We conducted the first retrospective analysis of dengue epidemiology in the predominantly rural state of Sabah, Malaysia, where both urban and sylvatic transmission cycles exist. Human notification data over a 7-year period were reviewed and spatiotemporal and demographic risk factors identified. We found: O_LIUrban habitats and population density are not the only determinants mediating the spread of epidemic dengue in Sabah. Case from both urban and rural localities contributed equally to dengue outbreaks.\nC_LIO_LIHuman demographic risk factors included being aged between 10 and 29 years, and being male.\nC_LIO_LIHigh incidence areas for dengue do not predict the occurrence of severe dengue. Severe dengue was largely localised to lower incidence districts in the east of the state.\nC_LIO_LIThe sole presence of Aedes albopictus in and around the majority of urban and rural case households suggests that this vector may play a major role in facilitating outbreaks.\nC_LI\n\nA complex interplay of risk factors likely mediates dengue transmission in Sabah, influenced by both regional climate trends and localised human and ecological influences. This study emphasises that the increasing spread of dengue in urban South East Asia is also mirrored in more rural areas, and suggests a need for control strategies that address both urban and rural dengue risk.